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Reds 6, Giants 4                                            2026-07-09 · #1048
at Pino Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
San Francisco           4    4    6    0
Cincinnati              6    6    4    0

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hoffken     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Matos       rf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Figuero pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kelley      ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Anger   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Galloway    lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Estrada     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Mantía  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
McNeal      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Cardozo ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Kraszewski  1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Reyes   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Fornaroli   2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Rosado  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Warburg     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
  g-Leining ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Braxton ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Arbeloa pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   4   6   3   0   0   4   4   9   0   1  0.214
  2B: Cardozo (18), Matos (24), Arbeloa (2).
  CS: Anger (6).
  HBP: Matos (6).
  a-Ran for Matos in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Kelley in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Estrada in the 9th.
  d-Batted for McNeal in the 5th.
  e-Batted for Kraszewski in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Fornaroli in the 3rd.
  g-Walked in the 7th.
  h-Batted for Rosado in the 8th.
  i-Ran for Reyes in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
David       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Levy        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Núñez       2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
Minda       cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Gayton      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.000
Dilworth    1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Morejón     3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Aguilar     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Murakam pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   6   4   3   0   0   5   5  15   0   1  0.154
  2B: Subhash (10), Núñez (5), Minda (2).
  HBP: Aguilar (2).
  Squeeze: Gayton (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Aguilar in the 3rd.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Warburg (L, 7-8) ....    14   10  37%    2    4    4    2    5    0   52    -
Bautista ............    16   13  48%    1    2    2    3   10    0   56  1-1
Mori ................     3    4  15%    1    0    0    0    1    0    8  2-0

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (W, 11-6) ...    32   27 100%    6    4    4    4    9    0  105    -

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Warburg (Outs 1-10) → Bautista (Outs 11-23) → Mori (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kraszewski (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fornaroli (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Estrada (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morejón (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Levy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Minda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gayton (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Giants batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 83°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 863683.
  Powerplays: Giants — Anger NF (O24)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Emmanuel Murakami Zachary Subhash (3B) 0–1
B 9 Thomas Gayton Orlando Núñez (3B) 0–2
B 10 Matias Minda Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 0–3
B 10 Matias Minda Dariel Morejón (2B) 0–4
B 18 Orlando Núñez Matias Minda (2B) 0–5
B 18 Orlando Núñez Blaise Dilworth (1B) 0–6
T 4 Matt Kraszewski Antolín Matos (3B) 1–6
T 17 Alafia Kelley Manolo Figueroa (2B) 2–6
T 21 Jhonny Reyes Brad Galloway (2B) 3–6
T 26 Maximo Cardozo Cas Arbeloa (2B) 4–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Giants — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Brad Galloway — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 245 ft Pramod Estrada — single · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 92 ft Matt Kraszewski — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Antolín Matos — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Maximo Cardozo — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft Ignacio Rosado — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -19° · 84 ft Cas Arbeloa — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 373 ft Antolín Matos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 150 ft Maximo Cardozo — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -11° · 82 ft Jhonny Reyes — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Diego Warburg — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +2° · 92 ft Stefan Braxton — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 221 ft Pramod Estrada — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 308 ft Maximo Cardozo — double · EV 95 mph · LA +11° · 135 ft Brad Galloway — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Jackson Levy — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 110 ft Zachary Subhash — double · EV 102 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +0° · 68 ft Adam Patrick — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Matias Minda — double · EV 110 mph · LA +27° · 393 ft Orlando Núñez — double · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 241 ft Orlando Núñez — single · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 79 ft Matias Minda — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
77% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 13.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-4.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brad Galloway 100 / +19° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Pramod Estrada 100 / +25° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
Maximo Cardozo 95 / +11° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.89
Antolín Matos 100 / +11° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Maximo Cardozo 84 / +8° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Reds
23% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Orlando Núñez 93 / +22° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Zachary Subhash 102 / +14° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Orlando Núñez 84 / -11° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Jackson Levy 84 / +11° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Matias Minda 88 / -3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.39
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