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Dodgers 5, Nationals 4                                      2026-07-09 · #1049
at Wold Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington              4    4    6    0
Los Angeles             5    5   10    1

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvarado    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Burrows     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Ferrie  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Giroud      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Cheng       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Foster      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Jones-W pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Menz        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Heffner ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Musso       p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Pastore ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  e-Bartlet ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Houston pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Baloy   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ebun        j  ......    1   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  2.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   4   6   3   0   0   2   2  10   1   1  0.214
  2B: Thompkins (6), Musso (1), Crowdus (1).
  HBP: Burrows (1), Foster (3).
  GIDP: Cheng (10), Menz (5).
  a-Ran for Burrows in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Foster in the 8th.
  c-Struck out for Menz in the 8th.
  d-Batted for Ferrie in the 6th.
  e-Walked in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Bartlett in the 7th.
  g-Struck out in the 9th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Llorente    p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Lepchen pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bertrams    rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Tena    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gerardy     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Boyajya ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Manaia      c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Ochoa       1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Swanson     lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Gilbert pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Guarnera    2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Saffold     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Richey      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Bender  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Roby    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Gleason ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Monroe      j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Abbott      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kromah      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   5  10   3   0   0   5   5   8   0   0  0.357
  2B: Manaia (14), Ochoa (7), Guarnera (5).
  SB: Gilbert (4).
  E: Abbott (3).
  HBP: Abbott (3).
  a-Ran for Llorente in the 3rd.
  b-Singled for Bertrams in the 3rd.
  c-Walked for Gerardy in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Swanson in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Tena in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Boyajyan in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 4th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Musso (L, 0-1) ......    23   17  63%    6    3    3    3    7    0   88    -
Pounds ..............    11   10  37%    4    2    2    2    1    0   38  3-0

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Llorente (W, 8-2) ...    22   21  78%    5    0    0    1    6    0   82    -
Tak .................     5    2   7%    1    2    1    0    0    0   23  2-2
Heinrich (F, 21) ....     5    4  15%    0    2    2    1    4    0   17  3-2

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Musso (Outs 1-17) → Pounds (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Menz (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foster (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Llorente (Outs 1-21) → Tak (Outs 22-23) → Heinrich (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Manaia (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Guarnera (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gerardy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saffold (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bertrams (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM PT. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 741889.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O22)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 2 Bautista Ochoa Cristián Llorente (2B) 0–1
B 3 Wyatt Guarnera Dylan Bertrams (3B) 0–2
B 10 Dean Gilbert Eugene Roby (3B) 0–3
B 22 Wyatt Guarnera Dean Gilbert (2B) 0–4
B 23 Tomm Kromah Wyatt Guarnera (2B) 0–5
T 21 Erwin Crowdus Diehl Ferrie (3B) 1–5
T 23 Júnior Alvarado Bobby Ebun (3B) 2–5
T 24 Kendry Baloy Erwin Crowdus (3B) 3–5
T 26 Sammy Houston Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 4–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Nationals — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -18° · 49 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Damion Thompkins — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 166 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Rayce Foster — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 156 ft David Musso — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Tyler Mayer — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 327 ft Bobby Ebun — fielders_choice · EV 60 mph · LA -22° · 57 ft Erwin Crowdus — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 221 ft Bobby Ebun — single · EV 61 mph · LA -5° · 58 ft David Musso — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 332 ft Raz Menz — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 73 ft Rayce Foster — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +27° · 87 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Óscar Giroud — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 229 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Damion Thompkins — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Júnior Alvarado — error · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 171 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Cristián Llorente — single · EV 79 mph · LA -4° · 75 ft Bautista Ochoa — double · EV 99 mph · LA +33° · 356 ft Colton Swanson — single · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 73 ft Wyatt Guarnera — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Paolo Tena — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Dean Gilbert — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +46° · 285 ft Wallace Monroe — single · EV 85 mph · LA +3° · 81 ft Andy Lepchenko — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA -23° · 62 ft Tomm Kromah — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 112 ft Cristián Llorente — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA +2° · 77 ft Hemi Manaia — double · EV 82 mph · LA +32° · 240 ft Jerome Saffold — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -29° · 63 ft Welby Richey — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +17° · 136 ft Elliott Gleason — single · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 77 ft Dean Gilbert — single · EV 93 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Andy Lepchenko — single · EV 86 mph · LA -7° · 81 ft Wallace Monroe — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Hemi Manaia — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +33° · 158 ft Wyatt Guarnera — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 213 ft Jerome Saffold — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +28° · 245 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
36% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 8.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Damion Thompkins 92 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Damion Thompkins 92 / +42° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.12
Erwin Crowdus 92 / +20° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
David Musso 92 / +40° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Tyler Mayer 92 / +38° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Dodgers
64% deserve-to-win  ·  7.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 8.6 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+4.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hemi Manaia 82 / +32° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.60
Wyatt Guarnera 92 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Tomm Kromah 92 / +10° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Cristián Llorente 79 / -4° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Paolo Tena 76 / -1° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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