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Canaries 14, Marlins 4                                      2026-07-10 · #1057
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey             14   14   14    0
Miami                   4    4    5    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Ali     ph ......    3   3   5   1   0   1   4   1   0   2   0  1.667
Crader      p  ......    4   2   4   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cordero     lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Fishbach    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Campos  pr ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   4   0   1   1   0  0.667
Hollenbeck  ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Richey      c  ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
  d-Morriso pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Rushing ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  33  14  14   2   0   2  13   7  12   3   0  0.424
  2B: Crader (2), Ali (38).
  HR: Campos (8), off Baird; Ali (15), off Baird.
  SB: Fishbach (5).
  CS: Fishbach (4).
  HBP: Crader (1), Morrison (2).
  a-Singled for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Brickhandler in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Navarro in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Kerr in the 3rd.
  e-Walked in the 7th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mothudi     1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Chieh-yu    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
Baird       p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Blackman    c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Mangin      3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Suggs       cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Chappell    2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Suárez      ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  a-Todd-Wi ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   4   5   1   0   0   4   2  14   0   1  0.179
  2B: Mangin (10).
  SB: Suggs (8).
  CS: Blackman (3).
  HBP: Chieh-yu (6).
  a-Grounded out in the 5th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (W, 8-3) .....    14   12  44%    2    3    3    1    8    0   51    -
Tesfaye .............    13   12  44%    3    1    1    1    4    0   46    -
Arnoux ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    2    0   14  1-0

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baird (L, 3-14) .....    22   15  56%    6    9    7    2    8    2   80    -
Offord ..............    17    9  33%    8    5    5    5    3    0   71    -
Joly ................     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0    9  1-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-12) → Tesfaye (Outs 13-24) → Arnoux (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Richey (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Baird (Outs 1-15) → Offord (Outs 16-24) → Joly (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mothudi (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Chappell (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 369165.
  Walk-Back runs: off Baird 2.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Vincent Crader Andrea Kramer (2B) 1–0
T 6 Jerome Kerr Hugo Campos (2B) 2–0
T 7 Rodmond Ali Welby Richey (2B) 3–0
T 7 Rodmond Ali Rodmond Ali (HR) 4–0
T 7 Vincent Crader Rodmond Ali (3B) 5–0
T 14 Hugo Campos Vincent Crader (2B) 6–0
T 14 Hugo Campos Grant Cordero (1B) 7–0
T 14 Hugo Campos Hugo Campos (HR) 8–0
T 14 Roberto Lacava Hugo Campos (3B) 9–0
T 18 Welby Richey Vincent Crader (3B) 10–0
T 18 Hugo Campos Welby Richey (2B) 11–0
T 21 Rodmond Ali Jayden Rushing (3B) 12–0
T 24 Rodmond Ali Ulises Morrison (2B) 13–0
T 24 Vincent Crader Rodmond Ali (2B) 14–0
B 5 Wallace Enterline Jacobe Mothudi (3B) 14–1
B 5 Wallace Enterline Carson Suggs (2B) 14–2
B 8 Kendall Suárez Treston Baird (2B) 14–3
B 12 Ramon Blackman Devon Mangin (2B) 14–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Canaries — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 9 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Vincent Crader — single · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 288 ft Welby Richey — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 91 mph · LA +22° · 231 ft Rodmond Ali — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +31° · 480 ft Hugo Campos — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Vincent Crader — single · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 105 mph · LA +35° · 415 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +17° · 171 ft Hugo Campos — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +47° · 480 ft Rodmond Ali — infield_single · EV 84 mph · LA +9° · 91 ft Ulises Morrison — line_out · EV 104 mph · LA +26° · 341 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Grant Cordero — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +35° · 337 ft Vincent Crader — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 302 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 74 mph · LA +21° · 146 ft Rodmond Ali — single · EV 97 mph · LA +13° · 162 ft Rodmond Ali — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 119 mph · LA +24° · 427 ft Welby Richey — single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 132 ft Vincent Crader — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 102 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -16° · 73 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -2° · 64 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Carson Suggs — single · EV 88 mph · LA -20° · 84 ft Wallace Enterline — error · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Treston Baird — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 101 mph · LA -0° · 96 ft Devon Mangin — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 366 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Ramon Blackman — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -22° · 84 ft Clifford Chappell — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +2° · 82 ft Treston Baird — single · EV 94 mph · LA -8° · 90 ft Clifford Chappell — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
97% deserve-to-win  ·  16.5 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -2.5 vs expected
contact: 26.5 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (-4.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ulises Morrison 104 / +26° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.03
Grant Cordero 105 / +35° Pull Single 3.0 → 1 -1.95
Hugo Campos 100 / +28° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
Rodmond Ali 117 / +31° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Rodmond Ali 119 / +24° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -0.96
Marlins
3% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Clifford Chappell 92 / +31° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Carson Suggs 88 / -20° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Treston Baird 94 / -8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Kendall Suárez 101 / +0° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Ramon Blackman 100 / -9° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
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