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Auckland Tailors 12, Melbourne Baseball Club 11             2046-04-24 · #1059
at Sabra Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Melbourne              11   11    7    0
Auckland               12   12   10    1

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Baccus      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Milliga pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Reed        1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Buchanon    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mabil       rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Lopez       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Frank       c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Stott   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Reid        2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Sainsbu pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Davidson    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
  d-Nwachuk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Bogaert pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Bhardwa ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Rios    pr ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
King        j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Talbot      j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  30  11   7   2   0   0  10   7  10   0   1  0.233
  2B: Reid (2), Rios (3).
  SB: Bogaerts (3).
  HBP: Frank (1).
  GIDP: King (1).
  a-Ran for Baccus in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Frank in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Reid in the 4th.
  d-Grounded out in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Batted in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 5th.

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vicelich    1b ......    2   2   2   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Petratos    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Young       lf ......    3   2   3   1   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Rauf        rf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Teh         cf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Brock       c  ......    1   2   1   0   1   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Phillips    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sears       p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Brockie c  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Reath       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rivera      j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  18  12  10   4   1   2  12   4   2   0   0  0.556
  2B: Brockie (2), Rivera (5), Young (6), Teh (1).
  3B: Brock (1).
  HR: Vicelich (2), off Wilson; Young (2), off Bosch.
  SB: Brockie (2).
  CS: Petratos (3), Rivera (5).
  E: Vicelich (1).
  HBP: Sears (2).
  a-Entered at C in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Davidson (L, 1-1) ...    12    6  22%    5    5    5    2    1    0   44    -
Yoganathan ..........     4    1   4%    3    3    3    0    0    0   14  1-1
Wilson ..............     4    2   7%    1    3    3    1    1    1   14  1-1
Bosch ...............     3    2   7%    1    1    1    1    0    1   12    -

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sears ...............    13   10  37%    1    2    2    0    4    0   50    -
Adams ...............    10    8  30%    0    2    2    3    4    0   43  1-0
Hernandez ...........     4    0   0%    1    4    4    3    0    0    9  2-2
Parker (W) ..........    11    9  33%    5    3    3    1    2    0   35  2-1

  Batting order: Auckland Tailors (home) batted second; Melbourne Baseball Club batted first.
  First pitch 5:45 PM PETT. Weather: 84°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 315278.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 10 Cameron Baccus Harry Sainsbury (3B) 1–0
T 10 Cameron Baccus Didi Bogaerts (2B) 2–0
T 14 Garang Mabil Dean Milligan (3B) 3–0
T 17 Dario Davidson Rafael Rios (3B) 4–0
T 18 Pat King Ivan Stott (3B) 5–0
T 18 Rafael Rios Harry Sainsbury (3B) 6–0
T 18 Rafael Rios Dean Milligan (2B) 7–0
T 18 Rafael Rios Pat King (1B) 8–0
T 18 Yunieski Gurriel Rafael Rios (2B) 9–0
T 20 Hilton Talbot Yunieski Gurriel (2B) 10–0
T 21 Harry Sainsbury Garang Mabil (3B) 11–0
B 2 Alex Young Grant Brockie (2B) 11–1
B 5 Joe Brock Adeel Rauf (2B) 11–2
B 5 Hira Vicelich Joe Brock (3B) 11–3
B 6 Grant Brockie Hira Vicelich (2B) 11–4
B 6 Grant Brockie Brendan Sears (1B) 11–5
B 6 Brendon Petratos Grant Brockie (3B) 11–6
B 7 Adeel Rauf Alex Young (2B) 11–7
B 7 Keat Teh Adeel Rauf (1B) 11–8
B 7 Hira Vicelich Keat Teh (2B) 11–9
B 7 Hira Vicelich Joe Brock (1B) 11–10
B 7 Hira Vicelich Hira Vicelich (HR) 11–11
B 11 Alex Young Alex Young (HR) 11–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sabra Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 462' · RF 357' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
341' 462' 357' Cameron Baccus — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Pat King — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -15° · 78 ft Dallas Reed — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Garang Mabil — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +27° · 291 ft Josh Lopez — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +53° · 167 ft Adam Reid — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Knox Nwachukwu — error · EV 86 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Rafael Rios — double · EV 102 mph · LA +15° · 205 ft Harry Sainsbury — single · EV 93 mph · LA -19° · 88 ft Cameron Baccus — error · EV 97 mph · LA +18° · 217 ft Hilton Talbot — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 230 ft Garang Mabil — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +45° · 237 ft Didi Bogaerts — single · EV 89 mph · LA -14° · 85 ft Dario Davidson — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +29° · 201 ft Yunieski Gurriel — single · EV 82 mph · LA +1° · 78 ft Garang Mabil — single · EV 83 mph · LA +20° · 181 ft Josh Lopez — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +52° · 458 ft Hilton Talbot — single · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Pat King — double_play · EV 94 mph · LA +21° · 239 ft
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 2 HR
341' 462' 357' Joe Rivera — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 138 ft Alex Young — single · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 261 ft Adeel Rauf — fielders_choice · EV 109 mph · LA +7° · 103 ft Keat Teh — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -6° · 93 ft Joe Brock — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 169 ft Hira Vicelich — single · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 172 ft Grant Brockie — double · EV 115 mph · LA +20° · 334 ft Brendon Petratos — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 120 ft Alex Young — double · EV 111 mph · LA +13° · 214 ft Adeel Rauf — single · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Keat Teh — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 262 ft Hira Vicelich — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Grant Brockie — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 123 ft Alex Young — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 461 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Melbourne Baseball Club
46% deserve-to-win  ·  11.0 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-5.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cameron Baccus 100 / +42° Pull Out 2.5 → 0 -2.54
Cameron Baccus 97 / +18° Pull Reached on Error 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Josh Lopez 109 / +52° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Garang Mabil 95 / +27° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Hilton Talbot 94 / +20° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Auckland Tailors
54% deserve-to-win  ·  12.0 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 19.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (+2.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Joe Brock 100 / +12° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.73
Alex Young 119 / +27° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.95
Brendon Petratos 95 / +10° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Joe Rivera 100 / +10° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.73
Adeel Rauf 109 / +7° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.65
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