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Tigers 4, Reds 3                                            2026-07-12 · #1074
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 4    4    4    0
Cincinnati              3    3    1    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Peavy       3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Mauigoa     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Grimaldo    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Day         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-McMicha pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sears       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ali         p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Acebo   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Marion  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Borden  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kuhler      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   4   4   1   0   0   3   6  10   0   0  0.154
  2B: Cotzumalguapa (9).
  CS: Acebo (10).
  GIDP: Whoriskey (15).
  a-Ran for Day in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Sears in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Ali in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tsoubanos   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Murakam pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Dawkins     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ribera      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-David   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Levy    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cox         1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Morejón     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dilworth    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Foxworth    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Goodwin ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0   0   .000
  f-Pittman pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Villalo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   3   1   1   0   0   3   6  11   0   0  0.040
  2B: David (5).
  HBP: Dilworth (3).
  GIDP: Dilworth (5), Villalobos (3).
  a-Ran for Tsoubanos in the 7th.
  b-Doubled for Ribera in the 7th.
  c-Struck out for Gayton in the 7th.
  d-Grounded out for Morejón in the 8th.
  e-Batted for Foxworth in the 8th.
  f-Ran for Corozo in the 8th.
  g-Grounded out for Patrick in the 9th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ali (W, 5-7) ........    32   27 100%    1    3    3    6   11    0  123    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Foxworth (L, 12-11) .    31   26  96%    4    4    4    6   10    0  109    -

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ali (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mauigoa (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Foxworth (Outs 1-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cox (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morejón (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-26)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Tigers batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM CT. Weather: 77°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 316463.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 20 Agustin Cox Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 0–1
B 22 Jaxson Goodwin Orlando Núñez (3B) 0–2
B 23 Jaxson Goodwin Lyle Pittman (3B) 0–3
T 21 Karl Marion Karl Marion (3B) 1–3
T 21 Kevin Kuhler Trevor Borden (3B) 2–3
T 22 Aleksandar Delatte Noah Massey (3B) 3–3
T 25 Liam Lutmer Ed Peavy (2B) 4–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Tigers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Christian Day — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 83 ft Liam Lutmer — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -3° · 77 ft Turner Ali — single · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 182 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA -4° · 51 ft Kenyatta Soldan — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Kevin Kuhler — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Ed Peavy — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 233 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — double · EV 83 mph · LA +43° · 273 ft Aleksandar Delatte — single · EV 64 mph · LA +22° · 112 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 140 ft Jenson Mauigoa — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Liam Lutmer — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 0 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -8° · 61 ft Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Blaise Dilworth — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -5° · 49 ft Bret David — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 205 ft Marco Corozo — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -10° · 51 ft Shelby Warwick — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +34° · 105 ft Adam Patrick — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Devron Villalobos — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 107 ft Travis Foxworth — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -7° · 51 ft Felix Ribera — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +26° · 86 ft Ed Tsoubanos — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +8° · 71 ft Agustin Cox — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
66% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 83 / +43° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Ed Peavy 92 / +22° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Aleksandar Delatte 64 / +22° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Kenyatta Soldan 76 / +11° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Kevin Kuhler 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Reds
34% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 2.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-0.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bret David 92 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Ed Tsoubanos 79 / +8° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Devron Villalobos 76 / +14° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Agustin Cox 76 / -11° Oppo Out 0.2 → 0 -0.24
Felix Ribera 52 / +26° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.13
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