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Dodgers 6, Athletics 5                                      2026-07-17 · #1080
at Abdurakhmanov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Los Angeles             6    6    4    2
Oakland                 5    5    2    0

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Guarnera    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Murray      2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Bender  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Gleason     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Querrey pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Tejeda      lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Boyajya ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mokiao-Atim 3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bertrams    rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Roby    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Glatch      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Ochoa   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chang       ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  1.000
Fariña      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Gilbert pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Lepchen pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Saffold pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    0   0   1   0   0   0   2   2   0   1   0   .000
Abbott      j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kromah      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  17   6   4   1   0   0   6  10   9   2   0  0.235
  2B: Abbott (3).
  E: Roby (5), Monroe (2).
  GIDP: Mokiao-Atimalala (4).
  a-Walked for Murray in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Gleason in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Tejeda in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Bertrams in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Glatch in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Fariña in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Bender in the 6th.
  h-Ran in the 9th.

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Curran      p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Sawchuk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Caspersen   c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Sinclair    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Crutchfield 2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Viscarr ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pagán       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
DeLong      3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Diémé       rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Molina      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Korda       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
  c-Leat    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ghannam     j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Benítez     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Taygan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   2   0   0   0   2   4  16   0   0  0.069
  SB: Ghannam (4).
  CS: Crutchfield (1).
  GIDP: Ghannam (5).
  a-Struck out for Curran in the 8th.
  b-Struck out for Crutchfield in the 7th.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fariña ..............     8    4  15%    2    2    2    1    2    0   25    -
Llorente (W, 9-2) ...    16   14  52%    0    3    1    2   10    0   56  2-1
Sanchez .............     9    9  33%    0    0    0    1    4    0   27  1-0

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Curran (L, 12-4) ....    14    9  33%    2    2    2    6    4    0   57    -
MacPhie .............     7    6  22%    1    2    1    2    2    0   25  3-1
Kitler ..............     7    4  15%    1    2    2    2    4    0   21  2-2

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Fariña (Outs 1-4) → Llorente (Outs 5-18) → Sanchez (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Glatch (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gleason (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murray (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chang (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guarnera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bertrams (Outs 1-27)

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-19)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Curran (Outs 1-9) → MacPhie (Outs 10-15) → Kitler (Outs 16-19)
CATCHER (C)       | Caspersen (Outs 1-19)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sinclair (Outs 1-19)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Crutchfield (Outs 1-19)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | DeLong (Outs 1-19)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Pagán (Outs 1-19)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Korda (Outs 1-19)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Molina (Outs 1-19)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Diémé (Outs 1-19)

  Batting order: Athletics (home) batted first; Dodgers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 79°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 559199.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.79
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Modesto Pagán Shane Curran (3B) 0–1 —
B 3 Wilfredo Molina Tobias DeLong (2B) 0–2 —
B 4 Randy Korda Val Caspersen (3B) 0–3 —
B 8 Martin Leat Martin Leat (3B) 0–4 —
B 10 Emmett Crutchfield Marcos Ghannam (3B) 0–5 —
T 2 Wyatt Guarnera Leonardo Tejeda (3B) 1–5 0.60
T 9 Wallace Monroe Andy Lepchenko (3B) 2–5 0.67
T 12 Chien-hao Chang Dean Gilbert (3B) 3–5 0.60
T 15 Ben Mokiao-Atimalala Daylan Querrey (2B) 4–5 0.50
T 18 Berkeley Abbott Dean Gilbert (3B) 5–5 0.33
T 19 Wallace Monroe Ben Mokiao-Atimalala (3B) 6–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.79
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 350' · CF 450' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Dodgers — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Wyatt Guarnera — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -6° · 53 ft Elliott Gleason — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Arturo Fariña — single · EV 84 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Wallace Monroe — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 135 ft Bautista Ochoa — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Chien-hao Chang — single · EV 70 mph · LA +20° · 125 ft Berkeley Abbott — double · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Chien-hao Chang — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 317 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — error · EV 57 mph · LA -5° · 54 ft
Athletics — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Shane Curran — error · EV 77 mph · LA +7° · 73 ft Val Caspersen — single · EV 76 mph · LA -23° · 72 ft Emmett Crutchfield — fly_out · EV 59 mph · LA +34° · 130 ft Tobias DeLong — single · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Wilfredo Molina — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Martin Leat — error · EV 76 mph · LA -22° · 72 ft Marcos Ghannam — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -21° · 63 ft Emmett Crutchfield — fielders_choice · EV 59 mph · LA -1° · 56 ft Cannon Sinclair — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 94 ft Val Caspersen — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Val Caspersen — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +16° · 73 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Dodgers
97% deserve-to-win  ·  6.6 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.6 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chien-hao Chang 92 / +35° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Berkeley Abbott 92 / +45° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Arturo Fariña 84 / -10° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Chien-hao Chang 70 / +20° Center Stay 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Wallace Monroe 76 / +18° Oppo Stay 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Athletics
3% deserve-to-win  ·  1.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 2.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Val Caspersen 76 / -23° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Tobias DeLong 92 / +2° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Cannon Sinclair 79 / +11° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Val Caspersen 59 / +16° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
Wilfredo Molina 56 / +14° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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