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Beavers 1, Padres 1  (4 SI)                                 2026-07-17 · #1081
at The Oval
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                        1      S    R    H    E
San Diego               1      0    1    7    1
Portland                1      0    1    5    1

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Atehortua   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Schwinger   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Martin  ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wilcox      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Alemu       3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Clarke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Johnston    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Staten  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fehr        cf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  d-Fernánd ph ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  e-Gleeson ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
  f-Corona  pr ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pearman     j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  42   1   7   1   0   0   1   5  21   0   0  0.167
  2B: MacCracken (6).
  SB: Clarke (8).
  E: Atehortua (4).
  a-Batted for Schwinger in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Alemu in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Najar in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Clarke in the 5th.
  e-Batted for Cleveland in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Briaud      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Xue     pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turenne     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Streko  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Okey    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Maripán     rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Guerra      3b ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.200
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Vahaly  ph ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lindsay     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Vidal   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Abate       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  40   1   5   3   0   0   1   4  13   0   0  0.125
  2B: Hydrick (7), Guerra (8), Vahaly (12).
  CS: Vahaly (11), Waston (7).
  E: Vahaly (1).
  GIDP: Xue (2).
  a-Ran for Briaud in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Turenne in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Hydrick in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Maripán in the 7th.
  e-Batted for Holzworth in the 4th.
  f-Batted for Velazquez in the 9th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox ..............    44   39 144%    5    1    1    4   13    0  165    -

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lindsay .............    46   39 144%    7    1    1    5   22    0  163    -

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Johnston (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Andrade (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Schwinger (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-39)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Lindsay (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Guerra (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Turenne (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Maripán (Outs 1-39)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  Super-innings: 4.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 700979.
  Powerplays: Padres — Fernández NF (O16)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Armel Lindsay Karl-Anthony Maripán (3B) 0–1 —
T 15 Mark Pearman Lucas Clarke (2B) 1–1 0.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Padres — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 79 mph · LA +9° · 78 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Teferi Alemu — single · EV 74 mph · LA +4° · 71 ft Fernán Johnston — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -8° · 69 ft Lautaro Corona — single · EV 72 mph · LA +19° · 125 ft Mark Pearman — single · EV 85 mph · LA +11° · 111 ft Israel Fernández — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 142 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -14° · 82 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +3° · 53 ft Lautaro Corona — single · EV 77 mph · LA -6° · 73 ft Hal Fehr — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -1° · 78 ft Yoshimar Najar — error · EV 66 mph · LA -11° · 63 ft Mark Pearman — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Thomas Martin — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +14° · 192 ft Ludlow MacCracken — double · EV 98 mph · LA +25° · 295 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 97 mph · LA +0° · 92 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -11° · 74 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -7° · 89 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — error · EV 99 mph · LA +8° · 111 ft Yadier Guerra — double · EV 91 mph · LA +25° · 254 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Armel Lindsay — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +8° · 90 ft Wilmer Velazquez — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +7° · 70 ft Sydney Redmayne — single · EV 68 mph · LA +14° · 88 ft Hua Xue — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 266 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 161 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -4° · 67 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +11° · 104 ft Wilmer Velazquez — line_out · EV 70 mph · LA +14° · 93 ft Álvaro Vidal — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -25° · 49 ft Armel Lindsay — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -15° · 86 ft Yadier Guerra — fly_out · EV 58 mph · LA +27° · 107 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — single · EV 79 mph · LA +18° · 146 ft Holcombe Hydrick — double · EV 100 mph · LA +29° · 339 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +5° · 57 ft Francisco Vahaly — double · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Yadier Guerra — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +13° · 111 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
41% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 8.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thomas Martin 102 / +14° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Israel Fernández 100 / +10° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Ludlow MacCracken 98 / +25° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Lautaro Corona 77 / -6° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Teferi Alemu 74 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Beavers
59% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -5.0 vs expected
contact: 11.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-3.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yadier Guerra 91 / +25° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Karl-Anthony Maripán 99 / +8° Pull Reached on Error 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Francisco Vahaly 92 / +39° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Holcombe Hydrick 100 / +29° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Armel Lindsay 89 / +8° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
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