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Braves 12, Astros 4                                         2026-07-18 · #1090
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 4    4    4    0
Atlanta                12   12   11    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Patridge    rf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
O'Connor    2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Morales     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Braun       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Moros       cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Thom        c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gómez   pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Tejeda      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rivas   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sarkisian   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Humphre pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Takada  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Tassew  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  28   4   4   2   0   0   4   2  10   0   0  0.143
  2B: Patridge (9), Thom (11).
  CS: O'Connor (4).
  HBP: Rivas (6).
  GIDP: Patridge (7), Moros (4), Takada (4).
  a-Ran for Thom in the 6th.
  b-Was hit by a pitch for Tejeda in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Rivas in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 7th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   3   0   0   0  1.000
Bombito     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Justini pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pfister     2b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Nilo        cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.250
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.250
Alvelo      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Ramon-E pr ......    3   4   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Powlus      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Lamar   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou lf ......    4   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.750
Molin       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Martín  pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  e-Bray    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  12  11   4   0   0  12   8   6   1   2  0.355
  2B: Bombito (8), Pfister (1), Sauerbrunn (10), Kalogeropoulos (18).
  a-Ran for Bombito in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Alvelo in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Powlus in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Molin in the 4th.
  e-Batted in the 5th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sarkisian ...........     9    7  26%    1    2    2    4    0    0   41    -
Vildoza .............     6    3  11%    2    3    3    2    0    0   21  2-1
Francavilla (L, 1-1)      7    3  11%    4    5    5    1    2    0   23  2-2
Fenty ...............    12   11  41%    4    2    2    1    3    0   32  1-1
Romero ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0   13  2-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bombito (W, 5-4) ....    11   12  44%    0    0    0    2    4    0   44    -
Buford ..............    13    8  30%    4    3    3    0    3    0   42    -
Rodriguez (F, 14) ...     7    7  26%    0    1    1    0    4    0   30  2-1

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sarkisian (Outs 1-7) → Vildoza (Outs 8-10) → Francavilla (Outs 11-13) → Fenty (Outs 14-24) → Romero (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bombito (Outs 1-12) → Buford (Outs 13-20) → Rodriguez (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Molin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 445124.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Lyrik Molin James Pfister (3B) 0–1
B 7 Donovan Bombito Todd Chu (1B) 0–2
B 7 James Pfister Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 0–3
B 7 James Pfister Maximo Justiniano (2B) 0–4
B 10 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Akili Sauerbrunn (2B) 0–5
B 10 Joseph Martín Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 0–6
B 12 Sean Ramon-Edwards Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (3B) 0–7
B 12 Akili Sauerbrunn Joseph Martín (3B) 0–8
B 12 Akili Sauerbrunn Joseph Martín (3B) 0–9
B 12 Oscar Nilo Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 0–10
B 13 Hugo Bray Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 0–11
B 23 Todd Chu Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 0–12
T 15 Masamichi Takada Brayan Braun (3B) 1–12
T 19 Jeyland Morales Mayer Gómez (3B) 2–12
T 20 Butch Patridge Mayer Gómez (3B) 3–12
T 23 Dante O'Connor Shimeket Tassew (3B) 4–12
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -3° · 75 ft Mirko Moros — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Brayan Braun — single · EV 91 mph · LA -27° · 87 ft Iapani Thom — double · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 348 ft Masamichi Takada — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 94 ft Marcos Kingsbury — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Dante O'Connor — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +26° · 187 ft Butch Patridge — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA -6° · 83 ft Clark Sarkisian — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +20° · 195 ft Brayan Braun — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 134 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 62 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +3° · 76 ft Butch Patridge — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Dante O'Connor — error · EV 66 mph · LA +18° · 101 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 7 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Beals Powlus — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 173 ft Lyrik Molin — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +35° · 225 ft Donovan Bombito — double · EV 106 mph · LA +19° · 270 ft James Pfister — double · EV 89 mph · LA +20° · 206 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — double · EV 103 mph · LA +22° · 296 ft Joseph Martín — single · EV 89 mph · LA +23° · 226 ft Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +30° · 217 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 224 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -17° · 70 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 81 mph · LA +20° · 164 ft Oscar Nilo — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 191 ft Beals Powlus — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — double · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 230 ft Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +42° · 198 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 86 mph · LA -18° · 82 ft Hugo Bray — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 147 ft Maximo Justiniano — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 158 ft Oscar Nilo — single · EV 82 mph · LA -1° · 78 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — single · EV 59 mph · LA +20° · 89 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 153 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — single · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 228 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 307 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
8% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Butch Patridge 92 / +40° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Marcos Kingsbury 90 / +14° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Brayan Braun 92 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Mirko Moros 62 / +11° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Clark Sarkisian 87 / +20° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Braves
92% deserve-to-win  ·  12.0 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 14.8 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
James Pfister 89 / +20° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Akili Sauerbrunn 92 / +21° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Akili Sauerbrunn 92 / +33° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Beals Powlus 88 / +17° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Sean Ramon-Edwards 91 / +14° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
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