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Phillies 9, Reds 8                                          2026-07-17 · #1089
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            9    9    7    0
Cincinnati              8    8    8    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Awoniyi     3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Craft       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mattke      cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Logar       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alvarado    c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Santos      ss ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.667
Moor        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Skeen   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Israilov    lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bowen       p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Grizzli ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Vásquez pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Ka'apan pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cubas       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   9   7   3   0   1   9   3   9   0   0  0.259
  2B: Santos 2 (26), Anthony (7).
  HR: Alvarado (4), off Post.
  HBP: Israilov (4).
  a-Ran for Moor in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Bowen in the 6th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Subhash     1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Pittman ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Morejón     3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Corozo  ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Lyman       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Levy    ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Núñez       2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Dilwort pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ribera      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-David   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Dawkins     ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  f-Cox     pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Post        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Murakam pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Suarez  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Taupaki     j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  32   8   8   2   0   0   7   5  13   0   0  0.250
  2B: Morejón (2), Corozo (5).
  a-Walked for Subhash in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Gayton in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Lyman in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Núñez in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Ribera in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Dawkins in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Post in the 3rd.
  h-Ran for David in the 6th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............    12    8  30%    1    2    2    3    5    0   46    -
Gullett (W, 3-0) ....    15   12  44%    4    2    2    1    4    0   48  2-2
Flam ................     4    3  11%    0    2    2    1    2    0   19  3-2
Maples ..............     6    4  15%    3    2    2    0    2    0   22  2-1

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Post (L, 3-3) .......    22   15  56%    4    8    8    2    6    1   80    -
Xargay ..............     8    5  19%    2    1    1    1    3    0   27    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bowen (Outs 1-8) → Gullett (Outs 9-20) → Flam (Outs 21-23) → Maples (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Moor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Craft (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-20)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-15) → Xargay (Outs 16-20)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-20)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Subhash (Outs 1-20)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-20)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morejón (Outs 1-20)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-20)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-20)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-20)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Lyman (Outs 1-20)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Phillies batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 11827.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Henri Dawkins Zachary Subhash (3B) 0–1
B 7 Bret David Blaise Dilworth (2B) 0–2
B 9 Carr Lyman Dariel Morejón (3B) 0–3
B 20 Norris Taupaki Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 0–4
B 21 Lyle Pittman Agustin Cox (3B) 0–5
B 21 Ed Tsoubanos Carter Suarez (3B) 0–6
B 26 Marco Corozo Norris Taupaki (3B) 0–7
B 26 Marco Corozo Agustin Cox (2B) 0–8
T 3 Sandy Santos Anthony Mattke (2B) 1–8
T 3 Sandy Santos Derlis Alvarado (1B) 2–8
T 4 James Bowen Sandy Santos (3B) 3–8
T 7 Sandy Santos Alberto Vásquez (2B) 4–8
T 7 Sandy Santos Godfrey Skeen (1B) 5–8
T 15 Derlis Alvarado Bright Awoniyi (2B) 6–8
T 15 Derlis Alvarado Jerome Ka'apana (1B) 7–8
T 15 Derlis Alvarado Derlis Alvarado (HR) 8–8
T 20 Bright Awoniyi Vitas Anthony (2B) 9–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Phillies — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Anthony Mattke — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Sandy Santos — double · EV 87 mph · LA +34° · 282 ft Jahiem Moor — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +5° · 77 ft Zach Grizzlies — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +58° · 478 ft Will Craft — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 128 ft Vitas Anthony — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 214 ft Jahiem Moor — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA +6° · 63 ft Sandy Santos — double · EV 88 mph · LA +27° · 252 ft Marco Logar — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Bright Awoniyi — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Derlis Alvarado — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +46° · 434 ft Alberto Vásquez — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +0° · 89 ft Bright Awoniyi — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +42° · 285 ft Anthony Mattke — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +30° · 282 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 135 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Zachary Subhash — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Dariel Morejón — double · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 127 ft Thomas Gayton — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 196 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -24° · 57 ft Shelby Warwick — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 277 ft Adam Patrick — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -22° · 72 ft Emmanuel Murakami — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 262 ft Norris Taupaki — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 198 ft Ed Tsoubanos — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +30° · 208 ft Agustin Cox — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Carr Lyman — single · EV 59 mph · LA +23° · 100 ft Dariel Morejón — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 225 ft Bret David — single · EV 52 mph · LA +20° · 69 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 164 ft Marco Corozo — double · EV 76 mph · LA +42° · 230 ft Henri Dawkins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
65% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +2.9 vs expected
contact: 11.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sandy Santos 87 / +34° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.57
Sandy Santos 88 / +27° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Zach Grizzlies 115 / +58° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Anthony Mattke 90 / +30° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Bright Awoniyi 85 / +42° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Reds
35% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.5 vs expected
contact: 7.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marco Corozo 76 / +42° Center Double 0.1 → 2 +1.85
Dariel Morejón 88 / +12° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.42
Dariel Morejón 92 / +21° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Shelby Warwick 92 / +28° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Emmanuel Murakami 92 / +25° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
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