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Braves 31, Astros 4                                         2026-07-17 · #1088
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 4    4    6    0
Atlanta                31   31   20    1

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Carrington  p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pitchford   3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gómez   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Morales     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Braun       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maier       lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rivas   ph ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Humphreys   cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
  c-Kingsbu ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Prince  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   6   0   0   0   3   3   8   0   0  0.207
  CS: Maier (2).
  GIDP: Patridge (6), Maier (2), Humphreys (1).
  a-Ran for Pitchford in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Thom in the 5th.
  c-Singled in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Kingsbury in the 6th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    6   6   4   2   0   2   8   1   0   0   0  0.667
Nilo        rf ......    6   4   3   0   0   1   4   0   2   1   0  0.500
Morrow      p  ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.400
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   4   1   0   1   0   3   3   0   0   0  0.333
Powlus      1b ......    3   5   3   1   0   0   4   2   0   0   0  1.000
Bray        lf ......    4   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Sherman     cf ......    6   3   3   2   0   0   6   0   1   0   0  0.500
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    5   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.200
Siska       2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Lamar   ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Weah        j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  1.000
Totals                  43  31  20   8   1   3  30   9  11   2   0  0.465
  2B: Chu 2 (30), Morrow (5), Powlus (1), Sherman 2 (11), Ramon-Edwards (17), Weah (8).
  3B: Sauerbrunn (1).
  HR: Chu 2 (9), off Faber, Romero; Nilo (1), off Fenty.
  SB: Sherman 2 (13).
  E: Weah (2).
  HBP: Powlus (2), Bray (6), Lamar (4).
  a-Batted in the 3rd.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carrington ..........     4    0   0%    2    4    4    2    0    0   20    -
Basham ..............     7    4  15%    2    3    3    2    2    0   37  1-0
Faber (L, 2-6) ......    15   10  37%    4    7    7    1    5    1   62  1-1
Fenty ...............     8    3  11%    4    6    5    2    1    1   34  1-1
Romero ..............     8    2   7%    4    7    5    1    1    1   31  1-1
Solaun ..............    12    8  30%    3    4    4    1    3    0   45  1-1

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Morrow (W, 15-3) ....    13   12  44%    1    1    1    2    5    0   48    -
Buford ..............    13   12  44%    4    2    1    0    2    0   38  1-1
Morejón .............     4    3  11%    0    1    1    1    1    0   15  1-1

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Basham (Outs 1-4) → Faber (Outs 5-14) → Fenty (Outs 15-17) → Romero (Outs 18-19) → Solaun (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maier (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-12) → Buford (Outs 13-24) → Morejón (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Siska (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Bray (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nilo (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 754106.
  Walk-Back runs: off Fenty 1, off Romero 2.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 3.56    Peak faced 43.50
    27 outs left: 3.56
    18 outs left: 5.17
     9 outs left: 10.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Oscar Nilo Todd Chu (2B) 0–1 —
B 0 Beals Powlus Oscar Nilo (3B) 0–2 —
B 0 Beals Powlus Jonathan Morrow (2B) 0–3 —
B 0 Beals Powlus Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 0–4 —
B 4 Mac Sherman Sean Ramon-Edwards (2B) 0–5 —
B 4 Mac Sherman Malcolm Siska (1B) 0–6 —
B 4 Mac Sherman Mac Sherman (3B) 0–7 —
B 4 Akili Sauerbrunn Mac Sherman (3B) 0–8 —
B 5 Cormani Weah Hugo Bray (3B) 0–9 —
B 5 Cormani Weah Beals Powlus (2B) 0–10 —
B 12 Akili Sauerbrunn Oscar Nilo (3B) 0–11 —
B 14 Todd Chu Beals Powlus (3B) 0–12 —
B 14 Todd Chu Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 0–13 —
B 14 Todd Chu Todd Chu (HR) 0–14 —
B 14 Dennis Lamar Todd Chu (3B) 0–15 —
B 17 Akili Sauerbrunn Hugo Bray (2B) 0–16 —
B 17 Akili Sauerbrunn Beals Powlus (1B) 0–17 —
B 17 Oscar Nilo Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 0–18 —
B 17 Oscar Nilo Jonathan Morrow (2B) 0–19 —
B 17 Oscar Nilo Oscar Nilo (HR) 0–20 —
B 17 Todd Chu Oscar Nilo (3B) 0–21 —
B 17 Todd Chu Todd Chu (HR) 0–22 —
B 17 Todd Chu Todd Chu (3B) 0–23 —
B 19 Beals Powlus Todd Chu (3B) 0–24 —
B 19 Mac Sherman Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 0–25 —
B 19 Mac Sherman Beals Powlus (2B) 0–26 —
B 19 Mac Sherman Hugo Bray (1B) 0–27 —
B 19 Sean Ramon-Edwards Mac Sherman (2B) 0–28 —
B 19 Todd Chu Sean Ramon-Edwards (2B) 0–29 —
B 19 Todd Chu Dennis Lamar (1B) 0–30 —
B 26 Dennis Lamar Beals Powlus (2B) 0–31 —
T 9 Jeyland Morales Brendan Carrington (2B) 1–31 5.17
T 15 Marcos Kingsbury Dante O'Connor (3B) 2–31 7.50
T 20 Jeyland Morales Jeff Prince (3B) 3–31 12.43
T 25 Mayer Gómez Korey Humphreys (3B) 4–31 42.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 3.56
Peak faced 43.50
27 outs left 3.56
18 outs left 5.17
9 outs left 10.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Dante O'Connor — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Jeyland Morales — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 305 ft Quentin Maier — single · EV 53 mph · LA +24° · 82 ft Raz Pitchford — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 79 mph · LA +21° · 165 ft Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Jeyland Morales — error · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Brayan Braun — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Quentin Maier — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Korey Humphreys — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Brayan Braun — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Jeyland Morales — error · EV 53 mph · LA -8° · 50 ft Butch Patridge — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA -22° · 55 ft Korey Humphreys — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Quentin Maier — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +46° · 231 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 7 1B · 9 XBH · 3 HR
368' 355' 345' Oscar Nilo — single · EV 110 mph · LA +24° · 356 ft Beals Powlus — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 194 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +7° · 80 ft Mac Sherman — single · EV 118 mph · LA +9° · 165 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -18° · 95 ft Cormani Weah — double · EV 99 mph · LA +34° · 366 ft Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 322 ft Mac Sherman — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Jonathan Morrow — double · EV 99 mph · LA +19° · 239 ft Oscar Nilo — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA -13° · 76 ft Beals Powlus — single · EV 91 mph · LA +26° · 258 ft Todd Chu — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +40° · 461 ft Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 167 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — triple · EV 118 mph · LA +15° · 277 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Todd Chu — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +37° · 472 ft Beals Powlus — single · EV 86 mph · LA +13° · 129 ft Dennis Lamar — single · EV 79 mph · LA +16° · 133 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Oscar Nilo — single · EV 89 mph · LA +9° · 99 ft Todd Chu — double · EV 111 mph · LA +18° · 291 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — double · EV 95 mph · LA +11° · 139 ft Oscar Nilo — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +42° · 446 ft Mac Sherman — double · EV 108 mph · LA +22° · 327 ft Todd Chu — double · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +30° · 249 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
1% deserve-to-win  ·  1.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jeyland Morales 92 / +32° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Marcos Kingsbury 76 / -3° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Scoville Rivas 76 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Quentin Maier 53 / +24° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Raz Pitchford 76 / +16° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Braves
99% deserve-to-win  ·  23.6 expected runs
actual 31 runs  ·  +7.4 vs expected
contact: 35.4 est bases + 12 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 37.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Akili Sauerbrunn 118 / +15° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.48
Dennis Lamar 100 / +27° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Dennis Lamar 100 / +12° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Sean Ramon-Edwards 95 / +11° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Mac Sherman 92 / +37° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
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