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Padres 7, Beavers 6  (2 SI)                                 2026-07-18 · #1094
at The Oval
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                        1      S    R    H    E
San Diego               6      1    7    8    1
Portland                6      0    6    9    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fehr        cf ......    2   3   2   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0  1.000
Najar       rf ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   3   1   0   0  0.500
MacCracken  2b ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Schwinger   ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Gleeson ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Clarke      c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Fernánd ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alemu       3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Atehortua   1b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bennette    p  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Martin      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Pearman     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  34   7   8   5   0   0   6   9  11   0   0  0.235
  2B: Fehr 2 (5), Najar (7), Clarke (2), Bennette (1).
  E: MacCracken (5).
  GIDP: Atehortua (9).
  a-Batted for Schwinger in the 9th.
  b-Batted for Clarke in the 6th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Briaud      cf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
  a-Guerra  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Clement     3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
Hydrick     c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Okey    pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Holzworth   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Rabess  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Zamora      2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Waston  pr ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Moulton     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Streko  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Vidal   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Aktaş   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Schilli pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  36   6   9   4   0   0   6   4  11   0   0  0.250
  2B: Briaud 2 (2), Turenne (11), Okey (2).
  SB: Vidal (4).
  GIDP: Waston (2), Okey (3).
  a-Ran for Briaud in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Hydrick in the 3rd.
  c-Singled for Holzworth in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Zamora in the 3rd.
  e-Singled for Moulton in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.
  h-Ran for Rabess in the 6th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bennette (W, 7-0) ...    39   32 119%    9    6    6    4   10    0  132    -
Mori ................     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3  1-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moulton (L, 2-5) ....    39   29 107%    8    6    6    9    8    0  130    -
Agunloye ............     4    4  15%    0    1    1    0    3    0   14  3-1

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-33)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bennette (Outs 1-32) → Mori (Outs 33-33)
CATCHER (C)       | Clarke (Outs 1-33)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-33)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-33)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-33)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Schwinger (Outs 1-33)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-33)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-33)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-33)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-33)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-29) → Agunloye (Outs 30-33)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-33)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-33)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zamora (Outs 1-33)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Clement (Outs 1-33)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-33)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-33)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-33)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-33)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Padres batted first.
  Super-innings: 2.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 58°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 421523.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Streko NF (O15)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Yoshimar Najar Hal Fehr (1B) 1–0 —
T 2 Lucas Clarke Yoshimar Najar (3B) 2–0 —
T 6 Hal Fehr Keshav Atehortua (1B) 3–0 —
T 7 Ludlow MacCracken Hal Fehr (3B) 4–0 —
T 18 Teferi Alemu Hal Fehr (3B) 5–0 —
T 26 Israel Fernández Huntley Cleveland (3B) 6–0 —
B 8 Travis Briaud Rhyne Okey (3B) 6–1 1.11
B 8 Travis Briaud Agustín Waston (1B) 6–2 0.95
B 10 Levar De Turenne Travis Briaud (2B) 6–3 0.88
B 22 Jaime Fuenzalida Yadier Guerra (2B) 6–4 2.40
B 25 Levar De Turenne Dawood Aktaş (3B) 6–5 4.50
B 26 Rhyne Okey Val Clement (1B) 6–6 6.00
ST 32 Etienne Gleeson Yoshimar Najar (2B) 7–6 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Padres — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Yoshimar Najar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 263 ft Lucas Clarke — double · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 112 ft Keshav Atehortua — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -12° · 85 ft Warren Bennette — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +27° · 172 ft Thomas Martin — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +39° · 257 ft Hal Fehr — double · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 108 ft Mark Pearman — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 85 mph · LA +1° · 81 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 122 ft Teferi Alemu — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 74 ft Warren Bennette — double · EV 99 mph · LA +13° · 166 ft Hal Fehr — double · EV 107 mph · LA +30° · 397 ft Etienne Gleeson — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -24° · 74 ft Teferi Alemu — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 174 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Teferi Alemu — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 103 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Ludlow MacCracken — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -10° · 58 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Travis Briaud — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -9° · 80 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 88 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 65 mph · LA +11° · 65 ft Aaron Holzworth — error · EV 73 mph · LA -16° · 69 ft Agustín Waston — single · EV 94 mph · LA -6° · 90 ft Mekhi Streko — single · EV 83 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Rhyne Okey — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Dawood Aktaş — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 157 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -1° · 86 ft Ludlow Schillig — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -9° · 61 ft Travis Briaud — double · EV 99 mph · LA +11° · 144 ft Levar De Turenne — double · EV 93 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -6° · 68 ft Agustín Waston — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -14° · 54 ft Rhyne Okey — double · EV 88 mph · LA +33° · 279 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -25° · 93 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +1° · 91 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Travis Briaud — double · EV 97 mph · LA +20° · 237 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — single · EV 82 mph · LA -2° · 78 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 102 mph · LA +18° · 243 ft Levar De Turenne — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +41° · 337 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
65% deserve-to-win  ·  9.7 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 11.2 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+1.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Lucas Clarke 86 / +11° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.42
Hal Fehr 88 / +10° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Warren Bennette 99 / +13° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Teferi Alemu 92 / +9° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Ludlow MacCracken 85 / +1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Beavers
35% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 12.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+0.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rhyne Okey 88 / +33° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Francisco Vahaly 102 / +18° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Levar De Turenne 93 / +14° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Levar De Turenne 92 / +41° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Travis Briaud 99 / +11° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
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