==============================================================================
Expos 13, Guardians 1                                       2026-07-18 · #1095
at Cleveland Coliseum
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Montreal               13   13   14    0
Cleveland               1    1    6    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Moreira     lf ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.250
Solórzano   3b ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Goodson     2b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Geffrard    ss ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Dienelt     c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Grizzli pr ......    3   2   3   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mondeville  rf ......    5   1   3   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Pérez       1b ......    5   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.400
Deener      cf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Drotar      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   1  0.333
  b-Bennett ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  38  13  14   4   0   0  13   3   9   0   1  0.368
  2B: Moreira (38), Geffrard (15), Dienelt (5), Grizzlies (24).
  SB: Moreira (13), Mondeville (7), Grizzlies (11).
  GIDP: Pérez (2).
  a-Ran for Dienelt in the 4th.
  b-Batted in the 8th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Granberry   2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Brymer      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ricard      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  1.000
Carmona     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Druz    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bannatyne   ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Hutson      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Zhu         3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
González    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Batt    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   1   6   0   0   0   1   2   8   0   1  0.240
  CS: Bannatyne (1), Hutson (3).
  HBP: Bannatyne (1).
  GIDP: Granberry (3), Brymer (2).
  a-Ran for Cabrera in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out in the 6th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Drotar (W, 9-1) .....    12   12   52  4.3    2    0    0    1    3    0    -
Chará ...............    14   12   46  3.3    4    1    1    1    5    0    -
Moran ...............     2    3    8  4.0    0    0    0    0    0    0  2-0

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Ricard (L, 9-9) .....    17   11   54  3.2    7    6    6    1    1    0    -
Dhaini ..............    15   12   59  3.9    3    4    4    1    6    0  1-1
Harthan .............     7    4   25  3.6    2    3    3    1    2    0  2-2

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Drotar (Outs 1-12) → Chará (Outs 13-24) → Moran (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Dienelt (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Pérez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moreira (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Deener (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mondeville (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ricard (Outs 1-11) → Dhaini (Outs 12-23) → Harthan (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | González (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Zhu (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Brymer (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hutson (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted second; Expos batted first.
  First pitch 1:10 PM ET. Weather: 74°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 254586.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.56    Peak faced 39.00
    27 outs left: 1.56
    18 outs left: 2.33
     9 outs left: 4.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Quincy Geffrard Marquis Goodson (1B) 1–0 —
T 6 Samuel Drotar Quincy Geffrard (3B) 2–0 —
T 10 Cameron Dienelt Jordi Pérez (1B) 3–0 —
T 11 Ozziel Moreira Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 4–0 —
T 11 Ozziel Moreira Quincy Geffrard (2B) 5–0 —
T 11 Ozziel Moreira Rónald Solórzano (1B) 6–0 —
T 13 Jordi Pérez Ozziel Moreira (3B) 7–0 —
T 13 Maciek Grizzlies Jordi Pérez (2B) 8–0 —
T 15 Rónald Solórzano Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 9–0 —
T 21 Maciek Grizzlies Franklin Mondeville (3B) 10–0 —
T 23 Samuel Drotar Marquis Goodson (3B) 11–0 —
T 25 Franklin Mondeville Rónald Solórzano (3B) 12–0 —
T 25 Franklin Mondeville Ozziel Moreira (2B) 13–0 —
B 23 Kemari Granberry Hubert Druz (3B) 13–1 9.75
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.56
Peak faced 39.00
27 outs left 1.56
18 outs left 2.33
9 outs left 4.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Expos — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 8 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Ozziel Moreira — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +14° · 197 ft Rónald Solórzano — fly_out · EV 104 mph · LA +10° · 148 ft Marquis Goodson — single · EV 96 mph · LA +21° · 250 ft Quincy Geffrard — double · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 240 ft Franklin Mondeville — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 90 ft Jordi Pérez — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -17° · 86 ft Gabe Deener — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +31° · 154 ft Samuel Drotar — single · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 208 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Gabe Deener — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -8° · 60 ft Jordi Pérez — single · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 145 ft Cameron Dienelt — double · EV 105 mph · LA +28° · 365 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 86 mph · LA +30° · 251 ft Ozziel Moreira — double · EV 102 mph · LA +14° · 200 ft Quincy Geffrard — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA -6° · 65 ft Maciek Grizzlies — double · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 204 ft Águilas Bennette — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +29° · 226 ft Jordi Pérez — single · EV 90 mph · LA +5° · 85 ft Rónald Solórzano — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +33° · 252 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 148 ft Jordi Pérez — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 83 ft Marquis Goodson — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft Ozziel Moreira — error · EV 94 mph · LA +24° · 263 ft Franklin Mondeville — single · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 93 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Lawson Ricard — single · EV 79 mph · LA +14° · 114 ft José González — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +40° · 230 ft Kemari Granberry — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 77 ft Chet Batt — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 66 ft Kemari Granberry — single · EV 82 mph · LA -13° · 78 ft Anthony Brymer — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +2° · 56 ft José González — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Oren Hutson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Doug Bannatyne — single · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Corey Zhu — single · EV 95 mph · LA +33° · 329 ft Sekou Cabrera — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 116 ft Oren Hutson — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +11° · 66 ft José González — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 211 ft Kemari Granberry — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA -5° · 87 ft Kemari Granberry — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA -14° · 55 ft Anthony Brymer — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -5° · 62 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
93% deserve-to-win  ·  9.6 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 16.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ozziel Moreira 101 / +14° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Rónald Solórzano 104 / +10° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Quincy Geffrard 94 / +22° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Maciek Grizzlies 99 / +16° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Ozziel Moreira 102 / +14° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Guardians
7% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.7 vs expected
contact: 6.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
José González 92 / +19° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Kemari Granberry 82 / -13° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Lawson Ricard 79 / +14° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Oren Hutson 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Doug Bannatyne 96 / +6° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →