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Braves 5, Astros 4                                          2026-07-20 · #1114
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 4    4    5    0
Atlanta                 5    5    3    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Rivas   ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
O'Connor    cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Morales     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Farrow  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Braun       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Gómez   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Herrera ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Pitchford   3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Arboleda    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Benguché    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Humphre pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Konig   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Prince  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Tassew  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Henríqu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Oliveira    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Trejo       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26   4   5   2   0   0   4   5  11   0   0  0.192
  2B: Rivas (15), Herrera (4).
  SB: Valencia (7).
  CS: Humphreys (10).
  GIDP: Oliveira (2).
  a-Batted for Kingsbury in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Morales in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Braun in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Thom in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Benguché in the 3rd.
  f-Grounded out in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Humphreys in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Rivas in the 7th.
  i-Ran for Konig in the 7th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Spencer     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Bray    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Chu         ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Lamar   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Nilo    ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Alvelo      c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Vargas      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Justini pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Jaimes      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Ramon-E pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Powlus      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  f-Molin   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
  g-Martín  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Allison pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ortiz       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
María       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  18   5   3   1   0   0   4   3   6   0   1  0.167
  2B: Nilo (9).
  SB: Nilo (5).
  HBP: Vargas (4).
  GIDP: Ortiz (3).
  a-Walked for Spencer in the 5th.
  b-Struck out for Chu in the 5th.
  c-Doubled for Pfister in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Vargas in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Jaimes in the 3rd.
  f-Grounded out in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Nilo in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 6th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Benguché (L, 6-3) ...    14   11  41%    1    3    3    1    3    0   45    -
Kryvonos ............     8    7  26%    1    2    2    2    3    0   23  1-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jaimes (W, 2-2) .....    25   21  78%    4    3    3    5    8    0   90    -
Chourio .............     6    6  22%    1    1    1    0    4    0   20  2-1

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-18)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Benguché (Outs 1-11) → Kryvonos (Outs 12-18)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-18)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-18)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Arboleda (Outs 1-18)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pitchford (Outs 1-18)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-18)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-18)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | O'Connor (Outs 1-18)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-18)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Jaimes (Outs 1-21) → Chourio (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vargas (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 97°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 850206.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 19 Jeyland Morales Shimeket Tassew (3B) 1–0
T 19 Maxi Valencia Dante O'Connor (3B) 2–0
T 21 Bernie Herrera Angel Henríquez (3B) 3–0
T 21 Benicio Trejo Maxi Valencia (3B) 4–0
B 11 Mirko Alvelo Maximo Justiniano (3B) 4–1
B 11 Oscar Nilo Todd Chu (3B) 4–2
B 11 Oscar Nilo Mirko Alvelo (1B) 4–3
B 17 Jefferson Di María Joseph Martín (3B) 4–4
B 17 Lyrik Molin Cameron Allison (3B) 4–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 239 ft Butch Patridge — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Jeyland Morales — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 214 ft Brayan Braun — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 320 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +53° · 289 ft Marcelo Oliveira — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA +2° · 80 ft Raz Pitchford — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Cedrick Konig — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA +1° · 50 ft Maxi Valencia — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 192 ft Benicio Trejo — single · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 265 ft Shimeket Tassew — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +28° · 89 ft Yasniel Arboleda — fly_out · EV 56 mph · LA +28° · 102 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 306 ft Bernie Herrera — double · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 205 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' James Pfister — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 286 ft Beals Powlus — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +18° · 150 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — line_out · EV 54 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Zack Spencer — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 192 ft Oscar Nilo — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 200 ft Cormani Weah — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +24° · 205 ft Edgar Ortiz — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Jefferson Di María — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 147 ft Zack Spencer — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Beals Powlus — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 153 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
43% deserve-to-win  ·  4.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 6.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bernie Herrera 94 / +18° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Scoville Rivas 92 / +33° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Brayan Braun 92 / +35° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Marcelo Oliveira 84 / +2° Oppo Double Play 0.3 → 0 -0.31
Butch Patridge 76 / +1° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.26
Braves
57% deserve-to-win  ·  4.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 5.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Oscar Nilo 92 / +18° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
James Pfister 92 / +29° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Cormani Weah 84 / +24° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Beals Powlus 79 / +18° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Beals Powlus 76 / +21° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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