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Cubs 17, Nationals 4                                        2026-07-21 · #1124
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                17   17   12    0
Washington              4    4    4    1

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Segovia     rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Santana     2b ......    4   2   3   1   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.750
Casey       ss ......    2   2   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
May         3b ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.500
Myers       c  ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   2   1   2   0   1  0.333
Lamas       cf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  1b ......    4   1   2   0   1   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
  a-Hollowe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Mueller pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Wimer       p  ......    4   3   2   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   1  0.500
  c-Sapriss ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  17  12   5   2   1  14   8  13   0   3  0.375
  2B: Santana (12), Casey 2 (6), Wimer 2 (2).
  3B: Santana (2), Sarkissian (1).
  HR: Myers (2), off Rico.
  CS: Santana (17).
  a-Ran for Sarkissian in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Seol in the 2nd.
  c-Batted in the 5th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Thompkins   rf ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Rico        p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   .000
Giroud      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cruz        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Burrows     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Morel       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Baloy       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Alvarad ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   4   4   1   1   1   4   4   9   0   2  0.167
  2B: Pastore (11).
  3B: Thompkins (1).
  HR: Fábrega (1), off Schnugg.
  E: Giroud (3).
  HBP: Miguelito (2).
  GIDP: Morel (5), Fábrega (1).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wimer (W, 2-15) .....    14   12  44%    1    2    2    4    3    0   49    -
Schnugg .............    13   13  48%    3    2    2    0    6    1   44  1-0
Bailey ..............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    2  1-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rico (L, 1-11) ......    23   14  52%    7   10    9    5    8    1   91    -
Clemente ............    14   10  37%    4    6    3    3    4    0   49  2-2
Gilliom .............     3    3  11%    1    1    1    0    2    0   13  2-1

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-12) → Schnugg (Outs 13-25) → Bailey (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Myers (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Rico (Outs 1-14) → Clemente (Outs 15-24) → Gilliom (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morel (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM ET. Weather: 73°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 761062.
  Walk-Back runs: off Rico 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Douglas Casey Jaume Santana (3B) 1–0
T 1 Erick May Douglas Casey (2B) 2–0
T 3 Brad Wimer Erick May (3B) 3–0
T 8 Samuel Sarkissian Brad Wimer (2B) 4–0
T 8 Mikel Lamas Samuel Sarkissian (3B) 5–0
T 8 Floyd Myers Mikel Lamas (1B) 6–0
T 8 Floyd Myers Floyd Myers (HR) 7–0
T 9 Douglas Casey Floyd Myers (3B) 8–0
T 9 Jaume Santana Douglas Casey (2B) 9–0
T 14 Erick May Teófilo Segovia (3B) 10–0
T 14 Ivan Saprissa Mikel Lamas (3B) 11–0
T 17 Brad Wimer Erick May (3B) 12–0
T 17 Samuel Sarkissian Brad Wimer (2B) 13–0
T 19 Ivan Saprissa Michael Mueller (3B) 14–0
T 20 Jaume Santana Floyd Myers (3B) 15–0
T 22 Brad Wimer Jaume Santana (2B) 16–0
T 25 Erick May Brad Wimer (2B) 17–0
B 2 Damion Thompkins Marcos Pastore (2B) 17–1
B 3 Yoel Morel Damion Thompkins (3B) 17–2
B 21 Isaac Fábrega Isaac Fábrega (HR) 17–3
B 23 Marcos Pastore Devron San Miguelito (3B) 17–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Cubs — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
331' 438' 348' Jaume Santana — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Douglas Casey — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 161 ft Erick May — single · EV 86 mph · LA +23° · 212 ft Brad Wimer — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA -19° · 70 ft Ivan Saprissa — error · EV 62 mph · LA -1° · 59 ft Samuel Sarkissian — triple · EV 112 mph · LA +15° · 255 ft Floyd Myers — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +30° · 480 ft Douglas Casey — double · EV 91 mph · LA +23° · 239 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 81 mph · LA +16° · 134 ft Brad Wimer — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +11° · 120 ft Mikel Lamas — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +37° · 215 ft Jaume Santana — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Brad Wimer — double · EV 99 mph · LA +17° · 223 ft Samuel Sarkissian — single · EV 116 mph · LA -2° · 111 ft Jaume Santana — double · EV 91 mph · LA +40° · 325 ft Brad Wimer — double · EV 109 mph · LA +14° · 227 ft Erick May — single · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 268 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
331' 438' 348' Damion Thompkins — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 202 ft Yoel Morel — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Isaac Fábrega — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +34° · 354 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +1° · 67 ft Damion Thompkins — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA -15° · 82 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +19° · 147 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 171 ft Marcos Pastore — double · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft Isaac Fábrega — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -0° · 74 ft Yoel Morel — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -5° · 56 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft Basil Burrows — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +26° · 197 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
84% deserve-to-win  ·  10.9 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +6.1 vs expected
contact: 16.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (+7.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jaume Santana 100 / +12° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.74
Samuel Sarkissian 112 / +15° Oppo Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.48
Douglas Casey 91 / +23° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Floyd Myers 119 / +30° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.06
Jaume Santana 91 / +40° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Nationals
16% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+3.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Isaac Fábrega 98 / +34° Oppo Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.54
Damion Thompkins 100 / +15° Oppo Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.91
Marcos Pastore 96 / +10° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Devron San Miguelito 100 / -11° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.56
Kendry Baloy 78 / +19° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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