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Dodgers 10, Brewers 9                                       2026-07-21 · #1125
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Los Angeles            10   10    6    0
Milwaukee               9    9    6    0

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bertrams    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Murray      2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Martin      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Lepchen pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Maier       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Guarner ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mokiao-Atim 3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Boyajya ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ochoa       ss ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Swanson     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gleason     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fitzgibbon  p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Gilbert pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Glatch  pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Bender  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Querrey pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Abbott      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  23  10   6   1   0   1  10   5   2   0   0  0.261
  2B: Guarnera (6).
  HR: Monroe (1), off Flowers.
  SB: Glatch (1).
  GIDP: Gleason (3).
  a-Ran for Martin in the 3rd.
  b-Doubled for Maier in the 3rd.
  c-Walked for Mokiao-Atimalala in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Fitzgibbon in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Guarnera in the 7th.
  f-Batted in the 3rd.
  g-Ran in the 4th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Williams    ss ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Flowers     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Espinoza    3b ......    3   2   1   0   1   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Edwards     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gentry      2b ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Yani        rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
Johnston    cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Saravia pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ayers       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  30   9   6   0   1   1   7   7   5   0   1  0.200
  3B: Espinoza (1).
  HR: Williams (7), off Tak.
  SB: Mesidor (4).
  HBP: Gentry (6).
  GIDP: Yani 2 (7).
  a-Struck out for Edwards in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Johnston in the 8th.

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgibbon ..........     6    2   7%    2    2    2    2    0    0   26    -
Tak (W, 3-0) ........    14   12  44%    2    4    2    0    1    1   50  2-2
Heinrich ............    14    9  33%    2    3    2    5    3    0   51  1-1
Goss ................     3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    1    0   12  3-0

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Flowers (L, 19-4) ...    20   14  52%    3    7    6    4    2    1   81    -
Kossmann ............     9    5  19%    3    3    3    1    1    0   31    -

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgibbon (Outs 1-2) → Tak (Outs 3-14) → Heinrich (Outs 15-23) → Goss (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maier (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gleason (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murray (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bertrams (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-19)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Flowers (Outs 1-14) → Kossmann (Outs 15-19)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-19)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-19)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gentry (Outs 1-19)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-19)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-19)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-19)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Johnston (Outs 1-19)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Yani (Outs 1-19)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Dodgers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 464103.
  Walk-Back runs: off Heinrich 1, off Flowers 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Alphonzo Flowers Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–1
B 2 Steven Kaplan Jesse Williams (3B) 0–2
B 4 Stan Mesidor Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–3
B 6 Alphonzo Flowers Noel Gentry (3B) 0–4
B 10 Graydon Yani Steven Kaplan (3B) 0–5
B 14 Jesse Williams Jesse Williams (HR) 0–6
B 15 Andres Espinoza Jesse Williams (3B) 0–7
B 17 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–8
B 23 Terry Ayers Noel Gentry (3B) 0–9
T 8 Wyatt Guarnera Dean Gilbert (2B) 1–9
T 8 Wyatt Guarnera Andy Lepchenko (1B) 2–9
T 9 Hubertus Murray Lawson Glatch (3B) 3–9
T 13 Wallace Monroe Daylan Querrey (3B) 4–9
T 13 Wallace Monroe Bautista Ochoa (2B) 5–9
T 13 Wallace Monroe Wallace Monroe (HR) 6–9
T 13 Dean Gilbert Wallace Monroe (3B) 7–9
T 15 Bautista Ochoa Colton Swanson (2B) 8–9
T 17 Lawson Glatch Berkeley Abbott (3B) 9–9
T 18 Andy Lepchenko Hubertus Murray (2B) 10–9
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Dodgers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
344' 415' 304' Dylan Bertrams — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -11° · 56 ft Hubertus Murray — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 101 ft Colton Swanson — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +39° · 357 ft Elliott Gleason — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -11° · 60 ft Wyatt Guarnera — double · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 152 ft Bautista Ochoa — single · EV 90 mph · LA -2° · 85 ft Wallace Monroe — hr · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 307 ft Berkeley Abbott — single · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 282 ft Daylan Querrey — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +16° · 152 ft Lawson Glatch — single · EV 117 mph · LA +10° · 192 ft Andy Lepchenko — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +9° · 91 ft Hubertus Murray — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +52° · 239 ft Colton Swanson — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 111 ft Elliott Gleason — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Dean Gilbert — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Bautista Ochoa — single · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Colton Swanson — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA -2° · 77 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
344' 415' 304' Jesse Williams — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 128 ft Daniel Edwards — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +31° · 249 ft Steven Kaplan — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft Alphonzo Flowers — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +51° · 286 ft Andres Espinoza — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -9° · 74 ft Noel Gentry — line_out · EV 102 mph · LA +17° · 237 ft Percy Nava — single · EV 77 mph · LA +15° · 120 ft Jesse Williams — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 138 ft Steven Kaplan — error · EV 107 mph · LA +21° · 302 ft Graydon Yani — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -10° · 70 ft Raul Johnston — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -14° · 64 ft Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +27° · 254 ft Andres Espinoza — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 207 ft Jesse Williams — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +41° · 416 ft Steven Kaplan — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Graydon Yani — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA -8° · 64 ft Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 60 mph · LA +46° · 142 ft Graydon Yani — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -13° · 61 ft Steven Kaplan — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +52° · 393 ft Jesse Williams — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 197 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Dodgers
39% deserve-to-win  ·  8.3 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wallace Monroe 88 / +40° Oppo Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.88
Colton Swanson 95 / +39° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Wyatt Guarnera 91 / +14° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Colton Swanson 88 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Bautista Ochoa 76 / -16° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Brewers
61% deserve-to-win  ·  10.4 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 13.6 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-2.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andres Espinoza 96 / +17° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.76
Steven Kaplan 107 / +21° Center Reached on Error 1.7 → 0 -1.65
Noel Gentry 102 / +17° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jesse Williams 102 / +41° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Steven Kaplan 100 / +52° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
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