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Beavers 11, Padres 5                                        2026-07-21 · #1129
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               5    5    9    0
Portland               11   11   12    1

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Staten      ss ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Fernández   lf ......    1   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Wilcox      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   2  0.500
Andrade     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.333
Corona      3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Clarke  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lavelle     1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Schwinger   c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Najar       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   5   9   2   0   0   4   3   4   0   3  0.375
  2B: Staten (5), Schwinger (3).
  HBP: Fernández 2 (9), Corona (1).
  GIDP: Lavelle (2).
  a-Ran for Corona in the 6th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Briaud      cf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Vahaly      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Clement     3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Tessema     2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Maripán     rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Holzworth   1b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Turenne ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Zamora      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Streko  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Lindsay     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Waston  pr ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Okey    pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Pawsat  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Abate       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  36  11  12   5   0   0  10   3  15   0   0  0.333
  2B: Briaud (3), Tessema (12), Maripán (4), Holzworth (7), Lindsay (2).
  CS: Waston (9).
  E: Vahaly (2).
  a-Batted for Holzworth in the 4th.
  b-Walked for Zamora in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Lindsay in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Streko in the 4th.
  e-Singled in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (L, 14-3) ....    25   19  70%    8    7    7    2   10    0   81    -
Mori ................    12    8  30%    3    4    4    1    5    0   45  1-1

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lindsay (W, 5-16) ...    30   27 100%    9    5    4    3    4    0   96    -

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-19) → Mori (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Lavelle (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corona (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Lindsay (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Maripán (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM PT. Weather: 58°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 287634.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Armel Lindsay Aaron Holzworth (2B) 0–1
B 11 Levar De Turenne Wilmer Velazquez (3B) 0–2
B 11 Levar De Turenne Agustín Waston (2B) 0–3
B 11 Karl-Anthony Maripán Levar De Turenne (1B) 0–4
B 13 Travis Briaud Karl-Anthony Maripán (2B) 0–5
B 19 Bonsa Tessema Travis Briaud (3B) 0–6
B 19 Val Clement Bonsa Tessema (2B) 0–7
B 19 Travis Briaud Val Clement (2B) 0–8
B 19 Travis Briaud Francisco Vahaly (1B) 0–9
B 21 Francisco Vahaly Travis Briaud (3B) 0–10
B 22 Quinn Pawsat Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 0–11
T 6 Israel Fernández Thomas Lavelle (3B) 1–11
T 11 Haxzel Andrade Israel Fernández (3B) 2–11
T 12 Bertram Wilcox Israel Fernández (3B) 3–11
T 13 Bertram Wilcox Lautaro Corona (3B) 4–11
T 25 Zane Staten Israel Fernández (3B) 5–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Padres — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Bertram Wilcox — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +8° · 79 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Lautaro Corona — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Thomas Lavelle — single · EV 81 mph · LA +22° · 179 ft Cary Schwinger — double · EV 102 mph · LA +23° · 296 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 105 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 90 mph · LA +1° · 85 ft Huntley Cleveland — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +22° · 184 ft Lucas Clarke — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -16° · 75 ft Thomas Lavelle — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Haxzel Andrade — single · EV 94 mph · LA -10° · 89 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Zane Staten — double · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 124 ft Cary Schwinger — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +37° · 253 ft Ludlow MacCracken — error · EV 63 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +5° · 75 ft Zane Staten — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -5° · 76 ft Travis Briaud — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 140 ft Aaron Holzworth — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 332 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +26° · 304 ft Armel Lindsay — double · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 356 ft Wilmer Velazquez — single · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 366 ft Seleshi Abate — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 154 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 115 mph · LA +8° · 151 ft Quinn Pawsat — single · EV 79 mph · LA +9° · 76 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 345 ft Travis Briaud — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Bonsa Tessema — double · EV 105 mph · LA +16° · 231 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Val Clement — single · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Francisco Vahaly — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Travis Briaud — double · EV 93 mph · LA +23° · 247 ft Agustín Waston — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -7° · 73 ft Francisco Vahaly — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +19° · 188 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
52% deserve-to-win  ·  8.2 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 9.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zane Staten 94 / +10° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Ludlow MacCracken 88 / +1° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Haxzel Andrade 94 / -10° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Huntley Cleveland 82 / +22° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Yoshimar Najar 90 / +1° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Beavers
48% deserve-to-win  ·  7.8 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 17.2 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Seleshi Abate 100 / +11° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Travis Briaud 93 / +23° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Travis Briaud 96 / +11° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Donis Zamora 98 / +26° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Wilmer Velazquez 100 / +33° Center Single 1.9 → 1 -0.94
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