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Canaries 10, Orioles 1                                      2026-07-21 · #1130
at Rudy Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
New Jersey             10      0   10    9    0
Baltimore               1      0    1    8    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    4   2   3   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.750
Kerr        rf ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   3   2   0   0   0  0.500
Brickhandle 1b ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Pastore     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Crader      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Cordero     lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Richey  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lacava      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Rushing ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29  10   9   3   0   0  10   6  11   0   0  0.310
  2B: Kerr (23), Brickhandler 2 (24).
  SB: Kerr 2 (6), Brickhandler (21), Fishbach (6).
  HBP: Brickhandler (5).
  GIDP: Fishbach (2), Richey (2).
  a-Ran for Cordero in the 2nd.
  b-Struck out in the 7th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    rf ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Foust       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ison        2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Maloney     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Samudio     3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Melch       cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Mills       ss ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Dennis      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Alison  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   1   8   2   0   0   0   0  13   0   0  0.267
  2B: Purchase (11), Mills (4).
  GIDP: Foust (6).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (W, 9-3) .....    18   15  56%    3    0    0    0    9    0   63    -
Arnoux (F, 82) ......    13   12  44%    5    1    1    0    5    0   53  1-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dennis ..............    18   13  48%    4    3    3    3    6    0   69    -
Nealon (L, 2-1) .....     6    3  11%    3    4    4    0    1    0   19  2-2
Campos ..............    13   11  41%    2    3    3    3    4    0   49  1-1

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-15) → Arnoux (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-13) → Nealon (Outs 14-16) → Campos (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foust (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Melch (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Purchase (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  Seconds: NJC o23 (10-0), BAL o24 (1-10).
  First pitch 7:35 PM ET. Weather: 97°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 733137.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Grant Cordero Andrea Kramer (3B) 1–0
T 4 Ramón Navarro Jerome Kerr (3B) 2–0
T 9 Vincent Crader Deylin Fishbach (3B) 3–0
T 10 Jam Brickhandler Welby Richey (3B) 4–0
T 10 Jerome Kerr Vincent Crader (3B) 5–0
T 10 Jerome Kerr Jam Brickhandler (2B) 6–0
T 11 Jerome Kerr Jerome Kerr (3B) 7–0
T 12 Jam Brickhandler Andrea Kramer (1B) 8–0
T 12 Vincent Crader Jam Brickhandler (3B) 9–0
T 20 Renaldo Pastore Jerome Kerr (3B) 10–0
B 18 Dylan Purchase Rónald Samudio (3B) 10–1
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 100 mph · LA +2° · 95 ft Vincent Crader — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +11° · 182 ft Ramón Navarro — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 315 ft Jam Brickhandler — double · EV 109 mph · LA +14° · 219 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 262 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 97 mph · LA +4° · 92 ft Vincent Crader — single · EV 91 mph · LA +21° · 223 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +31° · 441 ft Jam Brickhandler — double · EV 99 mph · LA +34° · 358 ft Welby Richey — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 111 mph · LA +0° · 105 ft Vincent Crader — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +28° · 238 ft Deylin Fishbach — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +3° · 76 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 87 mph · LA +9° · 95 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 119 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Dylan Purchase — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Brett Dennis — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +17° · 252 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 179 ft Brett Dennis — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +3° · 68 ft Sidney Foust — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Dyllan Ison — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Andre Melch — single · EV 90 mph · LA +6° · 86 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 86 mph · LA +14° · 142 ft Dylan Purchase — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 220 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 91 mph · LA +18° · 195 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +2° · 76 ft Brett Dennis — single · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 89 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 90 mph · LA +22° · 226 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
93% deserve-to-win  ·  13.9 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 17.6 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-5.6 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 0 CS (+1.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerome Kerr 112 / +31° Center Out 3.0 → 0 -2.96
Andrea Kramer 119 / +36° Center Single 3.6 → 1 -2.63
Vincent Crader 110 / +11° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.44
Ramón Navarro 92 / +34° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Jerome Kerr 100 / +20° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Orioles
7% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.8 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brett Dennis 107 / +17° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.65
Dan Mills 92 / +16° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Andre Melch 90 / +6° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Dylan Purchase 100 / +17° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Brett Dennis 93 / +5° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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