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Braves 12, Giants 11                                        2026-07-21 · #1133
at Kolenda Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Atlanta                12   12    7    0
San Francisco          11   11    9    0

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vargas      rf ......    2   2   2   1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nilo        cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
Chu         ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Powlus      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Nightin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Spencer     lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Ramon-E pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Morrow      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Sherman ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Martín  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Lamar   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Bray    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Allison pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    2   1   2   0   1   0   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ortiz       j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
María       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23  12   7   3   1   1  12   7   3   0   1  0.304
  2B: Vargas (12), Spencer (15), Ortiz (6).
  3B: Weah (1).
  HR: Vargas (2), off Caniza.
  SB: Ramon-Edwards (6).
  HBP: Chu (2).
  GIDP: Sauerbrunn (4), Martín (1).
  a-Struck out for Powlus in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Spencer in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Ramon-Edwards in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.
  e-Walked in the 5th.
  f-Walked in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 5th.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kelley      ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Cardozo     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Figuero pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hoffken     3b ......    2   2   2   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rosado  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Reyes       c  ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Leininger   rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Braxton     2b ......    4   2   2   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Estrada     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Matos   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Jimenez     lf ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   3   3   0   0   0  0.500
Caniza      p  ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
  d-Gallowa ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  33  11   9   5   1   0   9   7  13   0   0  0.273
  2B: Hoffken 2 (4), Reyes (3), Jimenez (2), Caniza (2).
  3B: Braxton (3).
  a-Ran for Cardozo in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Hoffken in the 6th.
  c-Singled for Estrada in the 5th.
  d-Batted in the 7th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Morrow ..............    10    6  22%    3    3    3    1    4    0   42    -
Parkes (W, 3-3) .....    12    9  33%    3    3    3    3    2    0   43  1-0
Rodriguez ...........    11    7  26%    2    5    5    2    4    0   45  1-0
Buford ..............     7    5  19%    1    0    0    1    3    0   30    -

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caniza (L, 7-3) .....     8    3  11%    3    5    4    2    0    1   22    -
Guerrant ............    14   10  37%    2    4    4    1    2    0   41  1-0
Yamauchi ............    11    7  26%    2    3    3    4    2    0   30  1-1

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-6) → Parkes (Outs 7-15) → Rodriguez (Outs 16-22) → Buford (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vargas (Outs 1-27)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-20)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Caniza (Outs 1-3) → Guerrant (Outs 4-13) → Yamauchi (Outs 14-20)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-20)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cardozo (Outs 1-20)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Braxton (Outs 1-20)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-20)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-20)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Jimenez (Outs 1-20)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Estrada (Outs 1-20)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Leininger (Outs 1-20)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted first; Braves batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 67°F · Wind in · Overcast. seed 847907.
  Powerplays: Braves — Lamar NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Caniza 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 1.33
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Orien Hoffken Alafia Kelley (1B) 0–1 —
B 1 Jhonny Reyes Orien Hoffken (2B) 0–2 —
B 6 Rubilio Caniza Jhonny Reyes (2B) 0–3 —
B 8 Stefan Braxton Raziel Jimenez (1B) 0–4 —
B 8 Reuben Leininger Stefan Braxton (3B) 0–5 —
B 14 Antolín Matos Orien Hoffken (2B) 0–6 —
B 17 Maximo Cardozo Stefan Braxton (3B) 0–7 —
B 19 Raziel Jimenez Jhonny Reyes (3B) 0–8 —
B 19 Raziel Jimenez Ignacio Rosado (2B) 0–9 —
B 19 Raziel Jimenez Manolo Figueroa (1B) 0–10 —
B 21 Reuben Leininger Raziel Jimenez (3B) 0–11 —
T 0 Mariano Vargas Mariano Vargas (HR) 1–11 1.22
T 0 Todd Chu Mariano Vargas (3B) 2–11 1.11
T 1 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos James Pfister (3B) 3–11 1.04
T 3 Zack Spencer Oscar Nilo (3B) 4–11 1.00
T 3 Zack Spencer Beals Powlus (2B) 5–11 0.88
T 10 Oscar Nilo Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 6–11 1.06
T 13 Cormani Weah Todd Chu (3B) 7–11 1.07
T 13 Cormani Weah Joseph Martín (2B) 8–11 0.86
T 13 Cormani Weah Mac Sherman (1B) 9–11 0.64
T 14 Edgar Ortiz Cormani Weah (3B) 10–11 0.46
T 15 Oscar Nilo Cameron Allison (3B) 11–11 0.25
T 20 Cormani Weah Edgar Ortiz (3B) 12–11 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 1.33
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Braves — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
322' 445' 350' Mariano Vargas — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +30° · 419 ft Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +45° · 245 ft Oscar Nilo — single · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -0° · 54 ft Zack Spencer — double · EV 103 mph · LA +39° · 418 ft Edgar Ortiz — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 205 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 83 ft James Pfister — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +43° · 295 ft Cormani Weah — triple · EV 104 mph · LA +11° · 166 ft Joseph Martín — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA +2° · 53 ft Mac Sherman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft Jonathan Morrow — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +40° · 229 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 102 mph · LA +10° · 137 ft Oscar Nilo — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +43° · 259 ft Mariano Vargas — double · EV 109 mph · LA +19° · 292 ft Edgar Ortiz — double · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 233 ft Cormani Weah — single · EV 79 mph · LA +13° · 107 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 3 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Orien Hoffken — double · EV 112 mph · LA +10° · 177 ft Jhonny Reyes — double · EV 90 mph · LA +44° · 325 ft Raziel Jimenez — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 134 ft Alafia Kelley — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +32° · 189 ft Antolín Matos — single · EV 95 mph · LA -9° · 90 ft Ignacio Rosado — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -21° · 78 ft Rubilio Caniza — double · EV 112 mph · LA +19° · 312 ft Pramod Estrada — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +13° · 238 ft Stefan Braxton — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +13° · 190 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -22° · 70 ft Orien Hoffken — double · EV 90 mph · LA +19° · 199 ft Raziel Jimenez — double · EV 99 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Stefan Braxton — single · EV 73 mph · LA +7° · 69 ft Jhonny Reyes — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -14° · 83 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 108 mph · LA -4° · 103 ft Stefan Braxton — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -2° · 64 ft Reuben Leininger — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -23° · 67 ft Rubilio Caniza — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA +2° · 102 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
58% deserve-to-win  ·  10.7 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 13.0 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mariano Vargas 110 / +30° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Cormani Weah 104 / +11° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Edgar Ortiz 88 / +25° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.62
Akili Sauerbrunn 102 / +10° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Edgar Ortiz 88 / +20° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Giants
42% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 13.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stefan Braxton 103 / +13° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Pramod Estrada 115 / +13° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Orien Hoffken 90 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Raziel Jimenez 99 / +11° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Jhonny Reyes 90 / +44° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
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