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Rockies 4, Guardians 3                                      2026-07-23 · #1149
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Colorado                4    4    5    1
Cleveland               3    3    6    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goss        lf ......    2   2   2   0   0   2   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Otamendi    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Porteño     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Diatta      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alderman    rf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ibarra      3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ruidíaz     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chaves      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Denson      p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  10   4   5   1   0   2   4   0   2   0   0  0.500
  2B: Ibarra (3).
  HR: Goss 2 (13), off Ricard.
  E: Goss (1).


GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ricard      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
  a-Zhu     pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Carmona     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Batt    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
González    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Tanner  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Rollins     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Hutson      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Villarr pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Velez       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Brymer      cf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Bronaug pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Granberry   2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Mayotte pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Gazzani ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Bannaty pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Ardón   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  25   3   6   1   0   0   3   5   6   0   1  0.240
  2B: Brymer (7).
  SB: Bronaugh (6).
  a-Ran for Ricard in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Carmona in the 5th.
  c-Singled for Cabrera in the 9th.
  d-Ran for Hutson in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Brymer in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Granberry in the 3rd.
  g-Walked for Zhu in the 8th.
  h-Ran for Gazzaniga in the 8th.
  i-Ran for Batt in the 8th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Denson (W, 12-5) ....    29   27 100%    5    3    1    5    6    0  103    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ricard (L, 9-10) ....    10    6  22%    5    4    4    0    2    2   26    -

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Denson (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Chaves (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Diatta (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ibarra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alderman (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-6)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ricard (Outs 1-6)
CATCHER (C)       | Velez (Outs 1-6)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Hutson (Outs 1-6)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-6)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | González (Outs 1-6)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cabrera (Outs 1-6)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-6)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Brymer (Outs 1-6)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rollins (Outs 1-6)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted first; Rockies batted second.
  First pitch 6:40 PM ET. Weather: 87°F · Wind out · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 990967.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.50
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Anthony Brymer Benoit Mayotte (2B) 0–1 —
B 13 Chet Batt Beals Villarreal (3B) 0–2 —
B 13 Chet Batt Sekou Cabrera (2B) 0–3 —
T 3 Dixon Ibarra Allen Alderman (1B) 1–3 0.38
T 6 Ahkhari Goss Dozie Denson (1B) 2–3 0.29
T 6 Ahkhari Goss Ahkhari Goss (HR) 3–3 0.14
T 6 Ahkhari Goss Ahkhari Goss (HR) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.50
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Rockies — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 2 HR
315' 410' 349' Allen Alderman — single · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 125 ft Dixon Ibarra — double · EV 91 mph · LA +31° · 290 ft Jeyland Chaves — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 113 ft Dozie Denson — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -16° · 73 ft Ahkhari Goss — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 386 ft Ahkhari Goss — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +26° · 438 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Lawson Ricard — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Sekou Cabrera — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -4° · 81 ft Anthony Brymer — single · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Kemari Granberry — single · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Chet Batt — error · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Beals Villarreal — single · EV 72 mph · LA +23° · 147 ft Tony Tanner — single · EV 84 mph · LA -12° · 80 ft Anthony Brymer — double · EV 89 mph · LA +33° · 293 ft Sekou Cabrera — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft José González — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -8° · 65 ft Benoit Mayotte — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +36° · 292 ft Eddie Velez — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -17° · 65 ft Chet Batt — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +12° · 87 ft Sekou Cabrera — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 73 ft José González — error · EV 80 mph · LA +18° · 155 ft José González — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +31° · 336 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
20% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+4.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ahkhari Goss 100 / +37° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Dixon Ibarra 91 / +31° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Ahkhari Goss 118 / +26° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Dozie Denson 77 / -16° Oppo Out 0.2 → 0 -0.24
Allen Alderman 88 / +12° Pull Single 0.8 → 1 +0.19
Guardians
80% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -2.4 vs expected
contact: 6.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
José González 98 / +31° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Anthony Brymer 89 / +33° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Kemari Granberry 80 / -1° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Anthony Brymer 86 / +3° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Tony Tanner 84 / -12° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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