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Astros 7, Tigers 6                                          2026-07-23 · #1148
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 6    6    3    0
Houston                 7    7    9    1

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Monroe      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Sears       rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Amigo       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mauigoa     lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Cotzumalgua 2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Grimaldo    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Day         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Malin       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  b-Acebo   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Peavy   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-McMicha pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Kuchiki ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lutmer  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Albrigh pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Borden  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Massey      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kuhler      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   6   3   0   0   1   6   7  10   0   2  0.130
  HR: Mauigoa (2), off Sugita.
  SB: McMichael (5).
  CS: Amigo (1), Cotzumalguapa (7).
  HBP: Sears (3), Mauigoa (1).
  GIDP: Massey (1), Kuhler (4).
  a-Singled for Day in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Malin in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Acebo in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Whoriskey in the 7th.
  e-Batted in the 5th.
  f-Struck out in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Albright in the 6th.
  h-Ran in the 7th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rivas       3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Tassew  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
  b-Thom    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
O'Connor    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Takada  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Morales     1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Braun       ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Pitchford   c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Daniels ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Moros       cf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Gómez   pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sugita      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Henríqu pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  g-Konig   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Farrow  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Herrera ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   7   9   2   0   0   6   4  14   0   0  0.281
  2B: Rivas (16), Moros (2).
  SB: Patridge (2).
  E: Moros (1).
  HBP: Morales (6).
  a-Ran for Rivas in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Kingsbury in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Patridge in the 5th.
  d-Walked for Pitchford in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Moros in the 2nd.
  f-Ran for Sugita in the 8th.
  g-Ran for Tassew in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Daniels in the 7th.
  i-Struck out for Farrow in the 8th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Malin (L, 3-5) ......    15    9  33%    6    5    5    0    5    0   49    -
Carson ..............    14   12  44%    3    1    1    3    4    0   56  1-0
Basham ..............     7    6  22%    0    1    1    1    5    0   32  3-1

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sugita ..............     9    7  26%    2    3    2    2    3    1   35    -
Romero ..............     5    3  11%    1    2    1    0    0    0    8  2-1
Francavilla (W, 2-1)     16   15  56%    0    1    1    5    6    0   56  2-0
Schueck .............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0    6  2-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Malin (Outs 1-9) → Carson (Outs 10-21) → Basham (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mauigoa (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sugita (Outs 1-7) → Romero (Outs 8-10) → Francavilla (Outs 11-25) → Schueck (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted first; Tigers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 148250.
  Powerplays: Tigers — McMichael NF (O24)
  Walk-Back runs: off Sugita 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Brayan Braun Marcos Kingsbury (3B) 0–1 —
B 4 Mirko Moros Van Neely (2B) 0–2 —
B 4 Mirko Moros Brayan Braun (1B) 0–3 —
B 7 Butch Patridge Mayer Gómez (3B) 0–4 —
B 8 Brayan Braun Shimeket Tassew (3B) 0–5 —
B 15 Brayan Braun Iapani Thom (2B) 0–6 —
B 21 Masamichi Takada Everett Farrow (3B) 0–7 —
T 1 Jenson Mauigoa Jenson Mauigoa (HR) 1–7 0.81
T 3 Cooper Monroe Jenson Mauigoa (3B) 2–7 0.75
T 6 Noah Massey Yimmi Cotzumalguapa (3B) 3–7 0.71
T 7 Thai-Son Whoriskey Raymond Acebo (2B) 4–7 0.60
T 9 Yimmi Cotzumalguapa Ricki Sears (3B) 5–7 0.50
T 18 Kevin Kuhler Sean Albright (3B) 6–7 0.67
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Tigers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Jenson Mauigoa — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +39° · 401 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — single · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 191 ft Noah Massey — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — single · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 225 ft Cooper Monroe — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +16° · 164 ft Kevin Kuhler — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -5° · 56 ft Jon Grimaldo — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +16° · 92 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — error · EV 54 mph · LA +18° · 68 ft Jenson Mauigoa — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Noah Massey — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 155 ft Rocky Kuchiki — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +54° · 270 ft Aleksandar Delatte — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -15° · 93 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 115 mph · LA +8° · 109 ft Dante O'Connor — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +10° · 117 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 170 ft Brayan Braun — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 252 ft Raz Pitchford — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +35° · 288 ft Mirko Moros — double · EV 96 mph · LA +24° · 273 ft Masamichi Takada — single · EV 87 mph · LA +16° · 155 ft Cedrick Konig — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -17° · 66 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 109 mph · LA +21° · 322 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 95 mph · LA -6° · 90 ft Raz Pitchford — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 187 ft Mayer Gómez — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +40° · 254 ft Keisei Sugita — single · EV 90 mph · LA -16° · 85 ft Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 107 mph · LA +13° · 205 ft Brayan Braun — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
44% deserve-to-win  ·  6.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 6.9 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jenson Mauigoa 101 / +39° Pull Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Cooper Monroe 87 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Noah Massey 84 / +17° Center Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Aleksandar Delatte 98 / -15° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 54 / +18° Center Reached on Error 0.4 → 0 -0.42
Astros
56% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 11.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-0.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Raz Pitchford 95 / +16° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Dante O'Connor 91 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mirko Moros 96 / +24° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Mayer Gómez 80 / +40° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Keisei Sugita 90 / -16° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
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