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Braves 6, Giants 5  (1 SI)                                  2026-07-25 · #1165
at The Citadel
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                        1      S    R    H    E
San Francisco           5      0    5    6    0
Atlanta                 5      1    6   10    0

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Matos       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Jimenez pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kelley      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Figuero pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Galloway    lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Marte       cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hoffken     3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Reyes       c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Leininger   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Arbeloa ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Fornaroli   1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Anger   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Caniza      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Rosado  pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Estrada ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Short   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  31   5   6   2   0   0   4   6  10   0   0  0.194
  2B: Fornaroli (2), Capdevila (3).
  SB: Rosado (15), Figueroa (9), Anger (2).
  CS: Figueroa (6).
  HBP: Matos (7).
  a-Ran for Matos in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Kelley in the 4th.
  c-Walked for Leininger in the 10th.
  d-Ran for Fornaroli in the 8th.
  e-Ran for Caniza in the 3rd.
  f-Struck out for Jimenez in the 8th.
  g-Grounded out in the 10th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvelo      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou 1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
  a-Chu     ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Lamar       lf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Nilo        rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Morrow      p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Vargas  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
  c-Ramon-E pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Spencer     c  ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bray        ss ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Sherman     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Pfister ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Nightin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Siska   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ortiz       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
María       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  31   6  10   2   0   0   5   2   9   0   1  0.323
  2B: Bray (17), Ramon-Edwards (19).
  SB: Lamar (7).
  CS: Ramon-Edwards (5), Siska (1).
  HBP: Pfister (2).
  GIDP: Spencer (5), Bray (2).
  a-Singled for Kalogeropoulos in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Morrow in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Sauerbrunn in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Sherman in the 5th.
  e-Grounded out in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Vargas in the 8th.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caniza (L, 7-4) .....     8    2   7%    6    4    4    1    1    0   28    -
Yamauchi ............    15   15  56%    2    2    2    0    7    0   47  2-2
McKay ...............    10   10  37%    2    0    0    1    1    0   34  1-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Morrow (W, 16-3) ....    25   19  70%    5    3    3    3    5    0   82    -
Homans ..............    12   11  41%    1    2    2    3    5    0   43  2-2

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Caniza (Outs 1-2) → Yamauchi (Outs 3-17) → McKay (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fornaroli (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Leininger (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-19) → Homans (Outs 20-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Spencer (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Bray (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lamar (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sherman (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nilo (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Giants batted first.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 1:00 PM CT. Weather: 93°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 118936.
  Powerplays: Giants — Short NF (O15); Braves — Nightingale NF
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 8 Antolín Matos Ignacio Rosado (2B) 1–0
T 14 Hervé Capdevila Jhonny Reyes (1B) 2–0
T 15 Manolo Figueroa Hervé Capdevila (3B) 3–0
T 17 José Marte Ignacio Rosado (3B) 4–0
T 21 Tarni Fornaroli Raziel Jimenez (3B) 5–0
B 1 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Dennis Lamar (3B) 5–1
B 2 Akili Sauerbrunn Oscar Nilo (3B) 5–2
B 2 Zack Spencer Jonathan Morrow (3B) 5–3
B 2 Hugo Bray Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 5–4
B 2 Hugo Bray Zack Spencer (1B) 5–5
SB 27 Sean Ramon-Edwards Zack Spencer (1B) 5–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Giants — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Antolín Matos — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Brad Galloway — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Orien Hoffken — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -4° · 77 ft Reuben Leininger — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -3° · 73 ft Tarni Fornaroli — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +45° · 310 ft Rubilio Caniza — single · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Manolo Figueroa — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +3° · 62 ft Ignacio Rosado — single · EV 88 mph · LA -14° · 84 ft Antolín Matos — single · EV 74 mph · LA +3° · 71 ft Alafia Kelley — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Hervé Capdevila — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 258 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Tarni Fornaroli — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 193 ft Brad Galloway — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +50° · 375 ft Orien Hoffken — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +17° · 148 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Dennis Lamar — single · EV 80 mph · LA +12° · 104 ft Jonathan Morrow — single · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 150 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 178 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 94 ft Hugo Bray — double · EV 100 mph · LA +29° · 338 ft Mariano Vargas — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 73 ft Oscar Nilo — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 154 ft James Pfister — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -4° · 85 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 101 ft Donny Nightingale — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +11° · 109 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — double · EV 93 mph · LA +33° · 319 ft Mac Sherman — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Zack Spencer — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +0° · 76 ft Mariano Vargas — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 76 ft Hugo Bray — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +14° · 131 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 91 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Dennis Lamar — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Hugo Bray — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA +3° · 59 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
61% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-0.4 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tarni Fornaroli 88 / +45° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.12
Antolín Matos 74 / +3° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Tarni Fornaroli 100 / +14° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Orien Hoffken 81 / +17° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Ignacio Rosado 88 / -14° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Braves
39% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 10.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sean Ramon-Edwards 93 / +33° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.07
Hugo Bray 100 / +29° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Zack Spencer 76 / +6° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Oscar Nilo 84 / +16° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Hugo Bray 85 / +14° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
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