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Stars 11, Expos 6                                           2026-07-26 · #1180
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Montreal                6      0    6    5    0
Nashville              11      -   11   10    1

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mondeville  rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Grizzlies   3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Creek       lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.250
Geffrard    cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hiebert     2b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pérez       1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Spence      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fielding    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Drotar      p  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   2   0  0.667
  a-Solórza ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6   5   0   0   1   5   4   8   2   0  0.172
  HR: Creek (4), off Scotti.
  SB: Pérez (9), Solórzano (7).
  CS: Creek (8).
  GIDP: Gibson (3), Spence (3).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cooper      lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Sappington  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   1  0.000
Fusano      2b ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Spence      rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Gamboa  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Boattin     ss ......    4   2   3   0   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.750
Mendez      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cubillán    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Cubas       p  ......    5   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.200
  b-Karouan ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Burani  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Giannou     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Morariu     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  11  10   1   0   1  10   4  10   0   1  0.312
  2B: Gayton (11).
  HR: Boattin (3), off Huard.
  SB: Fusano (8).
  E: Giannou (5).
  HBP: Cooper (5), Fusano (4), Mendez (3).
  a-Ran for Spence in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Gamboa in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out in the 8th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Drotar ..............    12    9  33%    5    1    1    0    2    0   44    -
Rezac (L, 5-1) ......     5    2   7%    3    4    4    0    0    0   14  2-1
Huard ...............    15   10  37%    2    4    3    3    3    1   54  1-1
Mokoena .............     7    6  22%    0    2    2    1    5    0   42  3-2

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cubas (W, 7-4) ......    15   13  48%    1    1    1    2    4    0   60    -
Scotti ..............     6    3  11%    4    4    4    0    2    1   25  1-0
Kekahuna (F, 14) ....    12   11  41%    0    1    1    2    2    0   37  1-0

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Drotar (Outs 1-9) → Rezac (Outs 10-11) → Huard (Outs 12-21) → Mokoena (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Pérez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Hiebert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mondeville (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cubas (Outs 1-13) → Scotti (Outs 14-16) → Kekahuna (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cubillán (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  Seconds: MON o26 (6-11).
  First pitch 1:10 PM CT. Weather: 81°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 652513.
  Powerplays: Expos — Solórzano NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Huard 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Pepe Boattin Bruno Cooper (3B) 0–1 —
B 9 Pepe Boattin Tracy Fusano (3B) 0–2 —
B 9 Pepe Boattin Manuel Gamboa (2B) 0–3 —
B 11 Edwin Gayton Facundo Mendez (2B) 0–4 —
B 11 Gian Cubas Edwin Gayton (2B) 0–5 —
B 13 Khosilot El Karouani Gian Cubas (3B) 0–6 —
B 17 Pepe Boattin Pepe Boattin (HR) 0–7 —
B 17 Facundo Mendez Pepe Boattin (3B) 0–8 —
B 21 Tracy Fusano Gian Cubas (2B) 0–9 —
B 22 Facundo Mendez Bruno Cooper (3B) 0–10 —
B 22 Justo Burani Tracy Fusano (3B) 0–11 —
T 6 Samuel Drotar Titus Hiebert (3B) 1–11 1.57
T 15 Fran Creek Jordi Pérez (3B) 2–11 2.50
T 15 Fran Creek Samuel Drotar (2B) 3–11 2.25
T 15 Fran Creek Rónald Solórzano (1B) 4–11 2.00
T 15 Fran Creek Fran Creek (HR) 5–11 1.75
T 25 Quincy Geffrard Rónald Solórzano (3B) 6–11 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Expos — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 151 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -7° · 87 ft Omni Fielding — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 109 ft Samuel Drotar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Titus Hiebert — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -3° · 51 ft Jordi Pérez — single · EV 83 mph · LA +24° · 204 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 82 mph · LA +20° · 170 ft Curt Gibson — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Samuel Drotar — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +18° · 64 ft Maciek Grizzlies — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Fran Creek — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Franklin Mondeville — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 219 ft Samuel Drotar — fielders_choice · EV 71 mph · LA -13° · 67 ft Titus Hiebert — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 192 ft Samuel Drotar — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 106 ft Fran Creek — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 338 ft Quincy Geffrard — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 96 ft Franklin Mondeville — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 66 ft Roscoe Spence — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +7° · 65 ft Titus Hiebert — error · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 136 ft Fran Creek — error · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Bruno Cooper — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Tracy Fusano — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA +6° · 68 ft Pepe Boattin — single · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Facundo Mendez — single · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Haxzel Cubillán — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +18° · 128 ft Edwin Gayton — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -5° · 76 ft Khosilot El Karouani — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -12° · 77 ft Nat Morariu — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 241 ft Pepe Boattin — single · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 258 ft Haxzel Cubillán — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -10° · 93 ft Edwin Gayton — double · EV 85 mph · LA +40° · 283 ft Gian Cubas — single · EV 110 mph · LA -4° · 105 ft Facundo Mendez — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +5° · 81 ft Tracy Fusano — single · EV 94 mph · LA +3° · 89 ft Pepe Boattin — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +41° · 382 ft Haxzel Cubillán — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 291 ft Edwin Gayton — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA -7° · 75 ft Gian Cubas — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -16° · 82 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
32% deserve-to-win  ·  6.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 9.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Fran Creek 92 / +46° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.82
Quincy Geffrard 92 / +8° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jordi Pérez 83 / +24° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Quincy Geffrard 84 / +16° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Titus Hiebert 76 / +18° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Stars
68% deserve-to-win  ·  9.5 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.5 vs expected
contact: 12.0 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pepe Boattin 98 / +41° Center Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.99
Edwin Gayton 85 / +40° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Haxzel Cubillán 100 / +23° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Tracy Fusano 71 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Tracy Fusano 94 / +3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
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