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Canaries 11, Tigers 1                                       2026-07-26 · #1181
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 1    1    5    0
New Jersey             11   11   13    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Peavy       c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Delatte     ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Mauigoa     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Grimaldo    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Zheng       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Monroe      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sears       rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Ali         p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Kuchiki ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   1   5   1   0   0   0   1  10   0   0  0.179
  2B: Delatte (15).
  SB: Sears (7).
  CS: Delatte (17), Cotzumalguapa (8).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kerr        rf ......    5   1   4   2   0   0   3   0   0   1   0  0.800
Brickhandle 1b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.667
Pastore     c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.500
Israel      p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Navarro pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Fishbach    2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lacava      3b ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.500
Richey      cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Kramer  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30  11  13   3   0   0  11   7   5   1   1  0.433
  2B: Kerr 2 (27), Richey (1).
  SB: Pastore (3), Lacava (1), Richey (2), Navarro (2).
  CS: Hollenbeck (5).
  HBP: Lacava (6).
  GIDP: Fishbach (3).
  a-Ran for Cordero in the 4th.
  b-Struck out in the 9th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ali (L, 5-8) ........    17   12  44%    4    5    5    5    1    0   56    -
Findley .............    15   11  41%    5    3    3    2    2    0   53  1-1
Malin ...............     6    4  15%    4    3    3    0    2    0   19  1-1

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Israel (W, 5-8) .....    12   12  44%    0    1    1    1    5    0   51    -
Arnoux ..............    13   13  48%    3    0    0    0    5    0   48  1-0
Rico ................     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0   10  1-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ali (Outs 1-12) → Findley (Outs 13-23) → Malin (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mauigoa (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-12) → Arnoux (Outs 13-25) → Rico (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted first; Tigers batted second.
  First pitch 1:05 PM ET. Weather: 74°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 949273.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 5 Tripp Hollenbeck Renaldo Pastore (3B) 0–1
B 5 Tripp Hollenbeck Raziel Israel (2B) 0–2
B 10 Jesse Woodall Renaldo Pastore (2B) 0–3
B 12 Tripp Hollenbeck Ramón Navarro (3B) 0–4
B 12 Tripp Hollenbeck Roberto Lacava (2B) 0–5
B 12 Welby Richey Tripp Hollenbeck (1B) 0–6
B 12 Jerome Kerr Welby Richey (2B) 0–7
B 22 Ramón Navarro Roberto Lacava (2B) 0–8
B 24 Renaldo Pastore Ramón Navarro (3B) 0–9
B 25 Jerome Kerr Jam Brickhandler (3B) 0–10
B 25 Jerome Kerr Jerome Kerr (1B) 0–11
T 11 Jon Grimaldo Ricki Sears (3B) 1–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Tigers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Jenson Mauigoa — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -0° · 84 ft Ed Peavy — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 89 ft Jon Grimaldo — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +10° · 101 ft Cooper Monroe — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -2° · 75 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -3° · 80 ft Aleksandar Delatte — double · EV 97 mph · LA +17° · 207 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 129 ft Jon Grimaldo — single · EV 98 mph · LA -10° · 93 ft Cooper Monroe — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -9° · 85 ft Ricki Sears — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 170 ft Turner Ali — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +4° · 92 ft Ricki Sears — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 10 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 114 mph · LA +4° · 108 ft Deylin Fishbach — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +38° · 322 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 68 mph · LA +15° · 94 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 302 ft Raziel Israel — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +24° · 234 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +17° · 217 ft Deylin Fishbach — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -16° · 74 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 101 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Welby Richey — double · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 182 ft Jam Brickhandler — infield_single · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 157 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +51° · 332 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 74 mph · LA -12° · 70 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +30° · 212 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 112 mph · LA +24° · 376 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -30° · 68 ft Welby Richey — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +43° · 220 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 119 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -9° · 65 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 87 mph · LA -7° · 82 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 93 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 231 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 163 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
2% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-3.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ricki Sears 96 / +10° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Ricki Sears 93 / +15° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Aleksandar Delatte 97 / +17° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Ed Peavy 87 / +8° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Jon Grimaldo 85 / +10° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Canaries
98% deserve-to-win  ·  14.0 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 16.8 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 1 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerome Kerr 99 / +17° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Welby Richey 93 / +16° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Deylin Fishbach 91 / +38° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Ramón Navarro 74 / -12° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Raziel Israel 88 / +24° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
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