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Astros 5, Brewers 4                                         2026-07-27 · #1192
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 5    5    2    0
Milwaukee               4    4    7    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Moros       cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Braun   pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
O'Connor    2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Rivas       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Herrera ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morales     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Takada  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Neely       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gómez       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Carrington  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Humphre pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Konig   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Daniels ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  12   5   2   0   0   0   5   5   2   0   0  0.167
  SB: O'Connor (4).
  CS: O'Connor (6).
  HBP: Gómez (3), Carrington (1).
  a-Ran for Moros in the 3rd.
  b-Walked for Kingsbury in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Morales in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Carrington in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Singled for Humphreys in the 7th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Irving      lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
Williams    ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Espinoza    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Kaplan  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Palacio     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Trejo   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Edwards     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Flores      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Yani        cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Saravia     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Gentry  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
Ayers       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30   4   7   2   0   0   3   4   7   1   0  0.233
  2B: Williams (25), Nava (9).
  GIDP: Williams (4), Trejo (4).
  a-Ran for Williams in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out for Espinoza in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out for Palacio in the 7th.
  d-Singled for Ishida in the 9th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carrington (W, 8-4) .    24   22  81%    4    1    1    2    5    0   74    -
Wood ................     8    4  15%    2    2    2    2    2    0   20  1-1
Schueck .............     1    1   4%    1    1    1    0    0    0    3  3-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Palacio (L, 1-3) ....    19   11  41%    2    5    1    5    2    0   69    -

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Carrington (Outs 1-22) → Wood (Outs 23-26) → Schueck (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Neely (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-11)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Palacio (Outs 1-11)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-11)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-11)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Saravia (Outs 1-11)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-11)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-11)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-11)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-11)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edwards (Outs 1-11)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain. seed 366649.
  Powerplays: Astros — Herrera NF (O20)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.63
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 22 Terry Ayers Clifford Irving (3B) 0–1 —
B 22 Daniel Edwards Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 0–2 —
B 26 Noel Gentry Donni Eggleston (3B) 0–3 —
B 26 Percy Nava Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–4 —
T 7 Mayer Gómez Brayan Braun (3B) 1–4 0.60
T 10 Jeyland Morales Cedrick Konig (3B) 2–4 0.53
T 10 Dante O'Connor Korey Humphreys (3B) 3–4 0.35
T 10 Dante O'Connor Brayan Braun (2B) 4–4 0.18
T 11 Shawn Daniels Masamichi Takada (3B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.63
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Astros — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Scoville Rivas — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 142 ft Mayer Gómez — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +53° · 247 ft Dante O'Connor — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 207 ft Shawn Daniels — single · EV 99 mph · LA +14° · 186 ft Jeyland Morales — error · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +56° · 168 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Clifford Irving — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +22° · 180 ft Jesse Williams — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Steven Kaplan — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Francis Trejo — double_play · EV 53 mph · LA +2° · 50 ft Terry Ayers — infield_single · EV 60 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Donni Eggleston — single · EV 95 mph · LA +20° · 229 ft Noel Gentry — single · EV 99 mph · LA +19° · 239 ft Percy Nava — double · EV 90 mph · LA +29° · 278 ft Percy Nava — line_out · EV 105 mph · LA +17° · 246 ft Stan Mesidor — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +23° · 231 ft Jesse Williams — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Andres Espinoza — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Modesto Palacio — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +33° · 262 ft Daniel Edwards — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA -21° · 76 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 92 mph · LA -27° · 87 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +1° · 78 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 97 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 92 mph · LA +41° · 336 ft Daniel Edwards — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 73 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
29% deserve-to-win  ·  4.6 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.4 vs expected
contact: 3.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scoville Rivas 83 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Jeyland Morales 76 / +19° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Mayer Gómez 80 / +53° Oppo Out 0.2 → 0 -0.20
Dante O'Connor 92 / +19° Center Single 0.9 → 1 +0.11
Shawn Daniels 99 / +14° Center Single 1.1 → 1 -0.10
Brewers
71% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 12.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-4.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Percy Nava 105 / +17° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Stan Mesidor 90 / +23° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Jesse Williams 92 / +41° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Terry Ayers 60 / +9° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Graydon Yani 92 / -27° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
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