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Red Sox 5, Marlins 4                                        2026-07-27 · #1191
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  5    5    6    0
Miami                   4    4    8    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Nytes       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Miranda ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Núñez       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pfister     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     3b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Echever pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hack        c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Cordano     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Pezzell ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Maldonado   p  ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Pope    pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Hodges  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Harrell pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Rowley  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  17   5   6   0   1   0   4   5   9   0   0  0.353
  3B: Maldonado (1).
  a-Grounded out for Nytes in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Saravia in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Cordano in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Maldonado in the 8th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.
  g-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Blackman    c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Beasley pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Suggs       2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Trevino     ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Mangin  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Corzo       3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Dibert      1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Fitzgerald  p  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Enquist     cf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burns       j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  30   4   8   2   0   0   3   3   8   0   0  0.267
  2B: Fitzgerald (4), Burns (5).
  CS: Chieh-yu (16).
  GIDP: Trevino (3), Corzo (3).
  a-Ran for Enterline in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out for Trevino in the 7th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maldonado (W, 2-4) ..    26   21  78%    6    2    2    3    5    0   91    -
Gullikson ...........     7    6  22%    2    2    2    0    3    0   33  3-1

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgerald (L, 6-9) .    22   15  56%    6    5    5    5    9    0  103    -

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Maldonado (Outs 1-21) → Gullikson (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cordano (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-15)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-15)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-15)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dibert (Outs 1-15)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suggs (Outs 1-15)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-15)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Trevino (Outs 1-15)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-15)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-15)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-15)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 93°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 690539.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.71
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Alex Dibert Jason Enquist (3B) 0–1 —
B 21 Wallace Enterline Alex Dibert (3B) 0–2 —
B 21 Don Burns Wilmer Corzo (3B) 0–3 —
B 21 Don Burns Alexander Beasley (1B) 0–4 —
T 6 Ángel Maldonado Diego Saravia (3B) 1–4 0.57
T 6 Ángel Maldonado Eliot Hack (2B) 2–4 0.43
T 11 Teófilo Pezzella Mark Harrell (3B) 3–4 0.38
T 11 Ferdi Pope Denis Echeverría (3B) 4–4 0.19
T 15 Denis Echeverría Teófilo Pezzella (2B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.71
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Henri Merrill — single · EV 78 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 90 mph · LA -26° · 86 ft Vinicius Cordano — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +15° · 83 ft Ángel Maldonado — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +16° · 242 ft Denis Echeverría — single · EV 72 mph · LA +10° · 73 ft Manuel Suazo — single · EV 103 mph · LA -1° · 98 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Montavious Chieh-yu — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft Wallace Enterline — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 147 ft Carson Suggs — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA -18° · 55 ft Israel Trevino — single · EV 98 mph · LA -2° · 93 ft Wilmer Corzo — double_play · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 111 ft Alex Dibert — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Randall Fitzgerald — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -18° · 50 ft Jason Enquist — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Devon Mangin — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Randall Fitzgerald — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 281 ft Wilmer Corzo — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Israel Trevino — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -12° · 49 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -12° · 75 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Alex Dibert — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Don Burns — double · EV 96 mph · LA +38° · 358 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 60 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Jason Enquist — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +15° · 107 ft Carson Suggs — single · EV 68 mph · LA +16° · 97 ft Wallace Enterline — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 173 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +50° · 228 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
48% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.5 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+4.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ángel Maldonado 108 / +16° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.61
Henri Merrill 78 / -2° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Diego Saravia 90 / -26° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Manuel Suazo 103 / -1° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Denis Echeverría 72 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Marlins
52% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 8.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Randall Fitzgerald 92 / +28° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Wallace Enterline 76 / +24° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Wallace Enterline 92 / +13° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Alex Dibert 76 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Ramon Blackman 60 / +12° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
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