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Canaries 9, Tigers 8                                        2026-07-27 · #1190
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 8    8    7    0
New Jersey              9    9    7    1

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Amigo       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Grimaldo    2b ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Zheng       ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Monroe      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Day         c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Whorisk ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Marion      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Mauigoa pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sears       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Briggs      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Acebo   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Delatte ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-McMicha pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lutmer  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kuhler      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   8   7   1   0   1   7   7  11   0   0  0.259
  2B: Grimaldo (5).
  HR: Whoriskey (3), off Bramblett.
  SB: Monroe (7), Mauigoa (4).
  CS: Monroe (8).
  HBP: Briggs (2), Whoriskey (6).
  GIDP: Peavy (1), Acebo 2 (6).
  a-Batted for Day in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Marion in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Briggs in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Mauigoa in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Grounded out for McMichael in the 9th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brickhandle 1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Richey  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kramer      2b ......    2   2   2   0   1   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Nachand     rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rushing     cf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bramblett   p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
Fishbach    lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Navarro pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  13   9   7   1   1   2   8   3   0   0   1  0.538
  2B: Kerr (28).
  3B: Kramer (4).
  HR: Kramer (13), off Briggs; Rushing (3), off Briggs.
  SB: Pastore (4).
  CS: Brickhandler (15), Kerr (11).
  E: Hollenbeck (3).
  HBP: Pastore (3).
  GIDP: Lacava (3).
  a-Ran for Hollenbeck in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.
  c-Doubled for Richey in the 3rd.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Briggs (L, 1-3) .....    13    9  33%    6    7    6    2    0    2   43    -
Carson ..............     3    1   4%    1    2    1    1    0    0   17  1-1

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bramblett (W, 7-0) ..    21   16  59%    6    6    5    3    5    1   69    -
Junior ..............    14   10  37%    1    2    1    4    5    0   50    -
Ortiz ...............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3  3-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-10)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Briggs (Outs 1-9) → Carson (Outs 10-10)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-10)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Marion (Outs 1-10)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Grimaldo (Outs 1-10)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-10)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zheng (Outs 1-10)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-10)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-10)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-10)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bramblett (Outs 1-16) → Junior (Outs 17-26) → Ortiz (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Tigers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 93°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 331759.
  Walk-Back runs: off Briggs 1, off Carson 1, off Bramblett 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 4 Karl Marion Cooper Monroe (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Thai-Son Whoriskey Barry McMichael (2B) 2–0 —
T 11 Thai-Son Whoriskey Kenyatta Soldan (1B) 3–0 —
T 11 Thai-Son Whoriskey Thai-Son Whoriskey (HR) 4–0 —
T 13 Jon Grimaldo Thai-Son Whoriskey (3B) 5–0 —
T 14 Raymond Acebo Jon Grimaldo (3B) 6–0 —
T 24 Kevin Kuhler Zixuan Zheng (3B) 7–0 —
T 25 Aleksandar Delatte Raymond Acebo (3B) 8–0 —
B 0 Andrea Kramer Andrea Kramer (HR) 8–1 0.89
B 0 Jam Brickhandler Andrea Kramer (3B) 8–2 0.78
B 6 Tripp Hollenbeck Ulises Bramblett (2B) 8–3 0.86
B 6 Jerome Kerr Welby Richey (1B) 8–4 0.71
B 9 Jayden Rushing Levar Nachand (3B) 8–5 0.67
B 9 Jayden Rushing Ramón Navarro (2B) 8–6 0.50
B 9 Jayden Rushing Jayden Rushing (HR) 8–7 0.33
B 10 Jam Brickhandler Jayden Rushing (3B) 8–8 0.18
B 10 Andrea Kramer Jam Brickhandler (1B) 8–9 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Tigers — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Eloy Amigo — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 159 ft Ed Peavy — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +28° · 153 ft Jon Grimaldo — single · EV 83 mph · LA +24° · 207 ft Zixuan Zheng — line_out · EV 66 mph · LA +24° · 134 ft Christian Day — single · EV 85 mph · LA +20° · 181 ft Karl Marion — single · EV 85 mph · LA -3° · 80 ft Raymond Acebo — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA -5° · 79 ft Aleksandar Delatte — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +30° · 273 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 387 ft Liam Lutmer — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +3° · 63 ft Jon Grimaldo — double · EV 108 mph · LA +13° · 198 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 184 ft Raymond Acebo — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA +7° · 70 ft Jon Grimaldo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Ed Peavy — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA -7° · 77 ft Aleksandar Delatte — error · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 122 ft Deylin Fishbach — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -3° · 86 ft Roberto Lacava — double_play · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 100 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 103 mph · LA +4° · 98 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 118 mph · LA +21° · 369 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 97 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Deylin Fishbach — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +41° · 208 ft Jayden Rushing — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +36° · 474 ft Andrea Kramer — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 401 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
54% deserve-to-win  ·  8.3 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 8.9 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+2.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thai-Son Whoriskey 100 / +37° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Aleksandar Delatte 89 / +30° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Karl Marion 85 / -3° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Jon Grimaldo 83 / +24° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Jon Grimaldo 108 / +13° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.61
Canaries
46% deserve-to-win  ·  7.8 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 14.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+1.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrea Kramer 119 / +22° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.29
Roberto Lacava 94 / +8° Center Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jayden Rushing 112 / +36° Pull Home Run 3.4 → 4 +0.58
Roberto Lacava 97 / +8° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Tripp Hollenbeck 103 / +4° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
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