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Padres 4, Athletics 3                                       2026-07-28 · #1203
at Abdurakhmanov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               4    4    2    0
Oakland                 3    3    2    1

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Schwinger   c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Banuelos    3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
MacCracken  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hulbert     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Clarke      c  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Najar       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Fernánd ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Lavelle     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Manzano     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Lettiere    lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  13   4   2   0   0   0   3   4   1   0   1  0.154
  GIDP: Banuelos (2), MacCracken (7).
  a-Walked for Najar in the 5th.

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fehr        cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Pagán       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Wiesner pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Crutchfield 2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Korda       lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Noel        ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sutton      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Fink    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Sawchuk     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Zago        1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
MacPhie     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kade    pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Diémé   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Leat    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Rodrigu ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Saunder pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   3   2   0   0   0   1   4   7   0   0  0.080
  CS: Kade (16).
  E: Noel (4).
  HBP: Zago (3), Kade (4).
  GIDP: Sawchuk (3), Zago (2), Diémé (6).
  a-Ran for Pagán in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Sutton in the 4th.
  c-Ran for MacPhie in the 3rd.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Struck out for Kade in the 8th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hulbert (W, 6-11) ...    28   27 100%    1    3    3    4    7    0  101    -

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
MacPhie .............    17   12  44%    2    2    2    4    1    0   50    -
Beach (L, 0-2) ......     0    1   4%    0    2    2    0    0    0    0  3-2

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hulbert (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Clarke (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Lavelle (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-13)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | MacPhie (Outs 1-12) → Beach (Outs 13-13)
CATCHER (C)       | Pagán (Outs 1-13)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Zago (Outs 1-13)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Crutchfield (Outs 1-13)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sutton (Outs 1-13)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Noel (Outs 1-13)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Korda (Outs 1-13)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-13)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sawchuk (Outs 1-13)

  Batting order: Athletics (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM PT. Weather: 84°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 891918.
  Powerplays: Padres — Fernández NF (O9)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.60
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 10 Chet Noel Nick Kade (3B) 0–1 —
B 10 Chet Noel Martin Leat (3B) 0–2 —
B 15 Zane Wiesner Randy Korda (3B) 0–3 —
T 5 Reed Lettiere Lucas Clarke (3B) 1–3 0.41
T 12 Israel Fernández Stefan Banuelos (3B) 2–3 0.40
T 12 Roy Hulbert Keshav Atehortua (3B) 3–3 0.20
T 13 Haxzel Andrade Lucas Clarke (3B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.60
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 350' · CF 450' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Padres — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Roy Hulbert — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 215 ft Yoshimar Najar — error · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 261 ft Ludlow MacCracken — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 105 ft Jefry Manzano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 78 mph · LA +16° · 126 ft Reed Lettiere — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Lucas Clarke — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Reed Lettiere — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Stefan Banuelos — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Thomas Lavelle — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 137 ft
Athletics — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Hal Fehr — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Emmett Crutchfield — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 153 ft Arnold Sutton — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -5° · 59 ft Mathis Diémé — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Martin Leat — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +22° · 74 ft Zane Wiesner — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Keaton Saunders — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 49 ft Hal Fehr — single · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Chet Noel — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -18° · 49 ft Ahmad Sawchuk — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -5° · 61 ft Mathis Diémé — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Randy Korda — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Alex Zago — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 185 ft Alex Zago — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
75% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-3.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ludlow MacCracken 92 / +9° Oppo Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Yoshimar Najar 92 / +25° Center Reached on Error 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Ludlow MacCracken 76 / +18° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Stefan Banuelos 78 / +16° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Lucas Clarke 76 / +9° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Athletics
25% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-3.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hal Fehr 92 / +45° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Hal Fehr 92 / +6° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Emmett Crutchfield 76 / +21° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Mathis Diémé 76 / +9° Oppo Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Martin Leat 52 / +22° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
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