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Canaries 3, Reds 2                                          2026-07-28 · #1205
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              2    2    5    0
New Jersey              3    3    2    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Acosta      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Levy        1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Suarez  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Villalobos  rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Subhash pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pittman     3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Murakami    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Núñez   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Dilwort pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Aguilar     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Morejón pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Corozo  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   2   5   0   0   0   2   4  12   0   0  0.200
  SB: Acosta (1), Pittman (7).
  CS: Acosta (2), Ribera (1), Morejón (5).
  GIDP: Pittman (1).
  a-Ran for Levy in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Villalobos in the 6th.
  c-Grounded out for Murakami in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Tsoubanos in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Aguilar in the 3rd.
  f-Walked for Subhash in the 8th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Waidner     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Rushing     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Cordero     lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   2   3   2   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   1  1.000
  HR: Kramer (14), off Aguilar.


REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (L, 13-7) ...     2    2   7%    1    3    2    1    0    1    9    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Waidner (W, 6-3) ....    27   27 100%    4    2    2    4   12    0   99    -

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-2)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-2)
CATCHER (C)       | Acosta (Outs 1-2)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Levy (Outs 1-2)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ribera (Outs 1-2)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pittman (Outs 1-2)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Murakami (Outs 1-2)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-2)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-2)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Villalobos (Outs 1-2)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Waidner (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | —
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | —
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | —

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Reds batted first.
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 92°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 337559.
  Walk-Back runs: off Aguilar 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 6 Ed Tsoubanos Lyle Pittman (2B) 1–0
T 25 Carter Suarez Zachary Subhash (3B) 2–0
B 0 Andrea Kramer Andrea Kramer (HR) 2–1
B 0 Dwight Waidner Andrea Kramer (3B) 2–2
B 2 Grant Cordero Jam Brickhandler (3B) 2–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Reds — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Lyle Pittman — single · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 82 mph · LA +9° · 87 ft Orlando Núñez — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 179 ft Carter Suarez — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +2° · 81 ft Devron Villalobos — single · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 82 mph · LA +4° · 78 ft Lyle Pittman — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +3° · 77 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
1 BIP· 0 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +32° · 416 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
15% deserve-to-win  ·  0.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 2.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jackson Levy 82 / +4° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Orlando Núñez 84 / +20° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Lyle Pittman 88 / -1° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Devron Villalobos 88 / -1° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Ed Tsoubanos 82 / +9° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.41
Canaries
85% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 3.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrea Kramer 108 / +32° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.05
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