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Reds 7, Beavers 5                                           2026-07-29 · #1213
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Portland                5    5    8    0
Cincinnati              7    7    5    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fuenzalida  lf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Clement     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turenne     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tessema     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Rabess      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Okey    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Vahaly  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Lindsay     p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Waston  pr ......    2   3   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Xue     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Streko  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   5   8   3   0   1   5   1   8   0   0  0.258
  2B: Fuenzalida (1), Guerra (11), Lindsay (3).
  HR: Waston (1), off Agnew.
  CS: Fuenzalida (2).
  a-Ran for Rabess in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Holzworth in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Lindsay in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 8th.
  e-Struck out for Xue in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Subhash     1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Suarez      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Corozo  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Levy        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cox         ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Agnew       p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Morejón pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pittman pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-David   ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Acosta  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Villalo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Taupaki     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Patrick     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  21   7   5   3   0   1   5   4   8   0   0  0.238
  2B: Murakami (11), Warwick 2 (13).
  HR: David (1), off Lindsay.
  GIDP: Villalobos (5).
  a-Walked for Tsoubanos in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Agnew in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Morejón in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Grounded out for Patrick in the 5th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lindsay (L, 6-17) ...    24   17  63%    4    7    6    4    8    1   89    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (W, 9-11) .....    30   25  93%    8    4    4    1    7    1  104    -
Zamora ..............     2    2   7%    0    1    1    0    1    0    8  1-1

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Lindsay (Outs 1-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Turenne (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Clement (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-17)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-25) → Zamora (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cox (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Beavers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 557069.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O1)
  Walk-Back runs: off Lindsay 1, off Zamora 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 5 Kyle Rabess Yadier Guerra (2B) 1–0
T 8 Francisco Vahaly Agustín Waston (3B) 2–0
T 23 Agustín Waston Hua Xue (1B) 3–0
T 23 Agustín Waston Agustín Waston (HR) 4–0
T 25 Rhyne Okey Agustín Waston (3B) 5–0
B 7 Bret David Zachary Subhash (2B) 5–1
B 7 Bret David Dariel Morejón (1B) 5–2
B 7 Bret David Bret David (HR) 5–3
B 7 Zachary Subhash Bret David (3B) 5–4
B 14 Adam Patrick Shelby Warwick (3B) 5–5
B 17 Shelby Warwick Johnny Acosta (3B) 5–6
B 17 Shelby Warwick Lyle Pittman (2B) 5–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Beavers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Val Clement — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +7° · 75 ft Yadier Guerra — double · EV 102 mph · LA +16° · 225 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 68 mph · LA +8° · 65 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 198 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — double · EV 105 mph · LA +12° · 187 ft Sydney Redmayne — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -16° · 74 ft Rhyne Okey — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +33° · 299 ft Armel Lindsay — double · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 226 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -2° · 76 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +27° · 259 ft Levar De Turenne — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +33° · 261 ft Val Clement — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +34° · 336 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — single · EV 79 mph · LA +6° · 75 ft Francisco Vahaly — single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 162 ft Agustín Waston — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +41° · 419 ft Levar De Turenne — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Holcombe Hydrick — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA -10° · 64 ft Yadier Guerra — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 130 ft Kyle Rabess — fielders_choice · EV 63 mph · LA +7° · 60 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 0 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 73 mph · LA +18° · 123 ft Jackson Levy — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -9° · 57 ft Carter Suarez — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +14° · 150 ft Bret David — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +39° · 423 ft Shelby Warwick — double · EV 99 mph · LA +14° · 181 ft Devron Villalobos — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft Agustin Cox — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -10° · 66 ft Emmanuel Murakami — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 186 ft Shelby Warwick — double · EV 104 mph · LA +31° · 378 ft Felix Ribera — line_out · EV 69 mph · LA +12° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
44% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 13.4 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Val Clement 95 / +34° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.46
Agustín Waston 103 / +41° Oppo Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.40
Armel Lindsay 94 / +20° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Rhyne Okey 90 / +33° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Kyle Rabess 68 / +8° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Reds
56% deserve-to-win  ·  5.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 9.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bret David 104 / +39° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.10
Shelby Warwick 99 / +14° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Carter Suarez 90 / +14° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Emmanuel Murakami 100 / +14° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
Shelby Warwick 104 / +31° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.66
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