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Nationals 5, Stars 4                                        2026-07-30 · #1217
at Neviaser Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington              5    5    6    0
Nashville               4    4    7    1

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Fabra   pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Abadía      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Giroud      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Corrales    cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Alvarad ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Menz    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Devezin     rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cheng       1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Foster  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Houston pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Jones-W pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-DeMelo  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Baloy   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ebun        j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   5   6   0   0   0   5   4   7   0   0  0.231
  SB: Abadía (1).
  GIDP: Alvarado (8).
  a-Ran for Pastore in the 6th.
  b-Grounded out for Corrales in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Miguelito in the 7th.
  d-Struck out for Cheng in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Fabra in the 6th.
  f-Ran for Jones-Wesley in the 7th.
  g-Ran in the 7th.
  h-Ran in the 8th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Forrest     p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cooper      lf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Karouani    1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Boattin pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Fusano      c  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Spence      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Sapping pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Torrero     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Santamaría  3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Caballe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Gamboa  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Beers   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Giannou     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morariu     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   4   7   2   0   0   2   9   8   0   0  0.304
  2B: Cooper (17), Fusano (16).
  CS: Forrest (7), Torrero (1), Caballero (8).
  E: Giannou (7).
  HBP: Forrest (3).
  GIDP: Cooper (5), Caballero (2).
  GITP: Spence (2).
  a-Ran for Karouani in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Spence in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Santamaría in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Gayton in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Boattin in the 7th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía (W, 4-18) ....    33   27 100%    7    4    4    9    8    0  128    -

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Forrest .............    24   20  74%    5    3    3    4    6    0   90    -
Valencia (L, 1-3) ...     4    3  11%    1    2    2    0    1    0   14  3-1

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-23)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Forrest (Outs 1-20) → Valencia (Outs 21-23)
CATCHER (C)       | Fusano (Outs 1-23)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-23)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-23)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Santamaría (Outs 1-23)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Torrero (Outs 1-23)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-23)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-23)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-23)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 903074.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O13)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 20 Samuel Giannou Bruno Cooper (3B) 0–1
B 21 Elias Torrero Sandy Beers (3B) 0–2
B 25 Bruno Cooper Wallace Sappington (3B) 0–3
B 26 Nat Morariu Sylvester Forrest (2B) 0–4
T 3 Damion Thompkins Renaldo Corrales (3B) 1–4
T 20 Rill Devezin Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 2–4
T 20 Damion Thompkins Dante DeMelo (3B) 3–4
T 21 Frickson Abadía Rill Devezin (2B) 4–4
T 23 Bobby Ebun Kendry Baloy (2B) 5–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Nationals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Marcos Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Renaldo Corrales — error · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 78 ft Basil Burrows — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 78 mph · LA +26° · 192 ft Rill Devezin — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +34° · 242 ft Damion Thompkins — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 175 ft Oscar Fabra — single · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Júnior Alvarado — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -22° · 49 ft Sammy Houston — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Bobby Ebun — single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 159 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +14° · 69 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -18° · 68 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 98 ft Basil Burrows — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +27° · 175 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 93 ft Frickson Abadía — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Sylvester Forrest — single · EV 78 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Khosilot El Karouani — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Tracy Fusano — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Sean Spence — triple_play · EV 85 mph · LA -12° · 80 ft Elias Torrero — fielders_choice · EV 89 mph · LA +0° · 84 ft Edwin Gayton — single · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 140 ft Tony Caballero — double_play · EV 82 mph · LA +6° · 78 ft Justo Burani — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 215 ft Tracy Fusano — double · EV 83 mph · LA +32° · 245 ft Bruno Cooper — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Sylvester Forrest — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Nat Morariu — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Bruno Cooper — double · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 199 ft Justo Burani — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Bruno Cooper — single · EV 60 mph · LA +16° · 74 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
35% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 6.5 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Devron San Miguelito 78 / +26° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Óscar Giroud 84 / +10° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Marcos Pastore 76 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Oscar Fabra 78 / +14° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Marcos Pastore 98 / +6° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Stars
65% deserve-to-win  ·  6.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -2.6 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tracy Fusano 83 / +32° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.60
Bruno Cooper 94 / +17° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Justo Burani 92 / +20° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Sylvester Forrest 78 / -5° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.78
Bruno Cooper 60 / +16° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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