==============================================================================
Beavers 13, Reds 8                                          2026-07-30 · #1220
at Pino Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Portland               13      -   13   12    0
Cincinnati              8      0    8   10    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   4   2   0   0   2   6   2   1   0   0  0.667
Hydrick     ss ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Vahaly  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   3   1   0  0.500
Guerra      3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Rabess      rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.333
Harper      cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Holzworth   1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Waston  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zamora      c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Giammalva   p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Okey    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Clement ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Turenne ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  13  12   4   0   2  12   5  10   1   1  0.375
  2B: Hydrick (8), Tessema (14), Rabess (2), Harper (8).
  HR: Fuenzalida 2 (3), off Post, Foxworth.
  SB: Guerra (3).
  HBP: Vahaly (6).
  a-Batted for Hydrick in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Giammalva in the 9th.
  d-Singled for Waston in the 9th.
  e-Singled in the 9th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Roy         3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Gayton  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Post        p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
David       2b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  b-Murakam pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
  c-Morejón pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Dilwort pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lyman       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Corozo  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Levy        rf ......    4   1   2   0   1   0   3   0   2   0   0  0.500
Acosta      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
  f-Goodwin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   8  10   3   1   0   8   5  10   0   0  0.323
  2B: David (6), Tsoubanos 2 (14).
  3B: Levy (1).
  SB: Morejón (4).
  CS: Gayton (12).
  a-Ran for Roy in the 7th.
  b-Ran for David in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Tsoubanos in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Subhash in the 7th.
  e-Batted for Lyman in the 5th.
  f-Struck out for Gayton in the 7th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Giammalva (W, 5-12) .    23   15  56%    8    7    6    3    7    0   89    -
Ives (F, 12) ........    12   12  44%    1    1    1    2    3    0   49  1-0

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Post (L, 5-4) .......    13    9  33%    5    6    5    2    4    1   42    -
Foxworth ............    15   12  44%    4    3    3    1    4    1   51  1-1
Celestine ...........     9    6  22%    3    4    4    2    2    0   36  2-1

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Giammalva (Outs 1-15) → Ives (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Harper (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-9) → Foxworth (Outs 10-21) → Celestine (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | David (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lyman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Levy (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Beavers batted first.
  Seconds: CIN o25 (8-13).
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 92°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 389630.
  Walk-Back runs: off Post 1.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Bonsa Tessema Holcombe Hydrick (2B) 1–0
T 6 Jaime Fuenzalida Yadier Guerra (3B) 2–0
T 6 Jaime Fuenzalida Agustín Waston (1B) 3–0
T 6 Jaime Fuenzalida Jaime Fuenzalida (HR) 4–0
T 7 Yadier Guerra Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 5–0
T 9 Gabriel Harper Holcombe Hydrick (1B) 6–0
T 11 Jaime Fuenzalida Gabriel Harper (3B) 7–0
T 11 Jaime Fuenzalida Donis Zamora (2B) 8–0
T 11 Jaime Fuenzalida Jaime Fuenzalida (HR) 9–0
T 26 Val Clement Jaime Fuenzalida (2B) 10–0
T 26 Jaime Fuenzalida Val Clement (3B) 11–0
T 26 Francisco Vahaly Levar De Turenne (3B) 12–0
T 26 Bonsa Tessema Rhyne Okey (3B) 13–0
B 4 Jackson Levy Zachary Subhash (2B) 13–1
B 4 Jackson Levy Felix Ribera (1B) 13–2
B 4 Johnny Acosta Jackson Levy (3B) 13–3
B 9 Zachary Subhash Adam Roy (3B) 13–4
B 10 Ed Tsoubanos Johnny Acosta (2B) 13–5
B 10 Bret David Ed Tsoubanos (2B) 13–6
B 12 Ed Tsoubanos George Post (2B) 13–7
B 21 Jackson Levy Dariel Morejón (3B) 13–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Beavers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Holcombe Hydrick — double · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 342 ft Bonsa Tessema — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 182 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 77 mph · LA -27° · 73 ft Sydney Redmayne — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +43° · 351 ft Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 375 ft Val Clement — single · EV 96 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 94 mph · LA -8° · 90 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +31° · 386 ft Yadier Guerra — fly_out · EV 105 mph · LA +30° · 377 ft Gabriel Harper — double · EV 98 mph · LA +15° · 198 ft Donis Zamora — single · EV 82 mph · LA +26° · 211 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -8° · 87 ft Kyle Rabess — double · EV 91 mph · LA +11° · 126 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +30° · 425 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +37° · 286 ft Kyron Giammalva — single · EV 90 mph · LA -8° · 86 ft Yadier Guerra — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +35° · 190 ft Bonsa Tessema — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA -6° · 89 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' George Post — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 206 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 169 ft Jackson Levy — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 284 ft Johnny Acosta — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +40° · 326 ft Marco Corozo — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +26° · 310 ft Emmanuel Murakami — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Johnny Acosta — single · EV 109 mph · LA +9° · 154 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -13° · 82 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 93 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Bret David — double · EV 104 mph · LA +16° · 231 ft George Post — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 118 ft Bret David — single · EV 98 mph · LA -13° · 93 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 334 ft Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +22° · 232 ft Johnny Acosta — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 107 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 69 mph · LA +3° · 65 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
59% deserve-to-win  ·  10.5 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +2.5 vs expected
contact: 17.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (+5.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yadier Guerra 105 / +30° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.02
Jaime Fuenzalida 104 / +31° Oppo Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.98
Francisco Vahaly 100 / +35° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.94
Jaime Fuenzalida 111 / +30° Center Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.77
Kyle Rabess 91 / +11° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Reds
41% deserve-to-win  ·  8.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 14.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jackson Levy 96 / +25° Oppo Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.93
George Post 100 / +9° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Ed Tsoubanos 93 / +13° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Johnny Acosta 91 / +40° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Marco Corozo 98 / +26° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →