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Orioles 2, Red Sox 1                                        2026-07-30 · #1222
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  1    1    3    0
Baltimore               2    2    4    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Merrill     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Pfister     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Suazo   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Harrell     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Cameron     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hack        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Cordano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Castillo    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Rowley  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Miranda ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Echever pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   3   1   0   0   1   2  11   0   0  0.115
  2B: Nytes (11).
  GIDP: Strachan (2).
  a-Batted for Pfister in the 3rd.
  b-Walked for Hack in the 6th.
  c-Ran in the 4th.
  d-Grounded out for Malard in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Miranda in the 5th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Foust       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ison        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mateer      3b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Maloney     lf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Tejeda      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Samudio     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Spoelstra   c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sigourney   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dennis      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1   .000
Totals                   8   2   4   0   0   0   2   2   1   0   1  0.500
  SB: Maloney (13).
  a-Singled for Foust in the 3rd.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (L, 3-4) ...     9    6  22%    3    2    2    2    1    0   24    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dennis ..............     9    8  30%    2    1    1    0    3    0   37    -
Nealon (W, 3-1) .....    13   12  44%    1    0    0    2    8    0   55    -
Blue ................     6    7  26%    0    0    0    0    0    0   19  1-0

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-6)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-6)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-6)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-6)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cameron (Outs 1-6)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Núñez (Outs 1-6)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-6)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-6)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-6)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-6)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-8) → Nealon (Outs 9-20) → Blue (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spoelstra (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Red Sox batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 84°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 991094.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.26
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 4 Jide Falby Inman Nytes (3B) 1–0 —
B 5 Brett Dennis Alan Maloney (3B) 1–1 0.14
B 6 Rill Kautz Kreigh Mateer (3B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.26
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Red Sox — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Pancho Pfister — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +32° · 364 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +37° · 207 ft Inman Nytes — double · EV 119 mph · LA +21° · 379 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 66 mph · LA +15° · 88 ft Eliot Hack — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Andrés Castillo — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Daylan Miranda — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA -15° · 66 ft Bernard Strachan — double_play · EV 90 mph · LA +2° · 86 ft Denis Echeverría — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +11° · 97 ft Henri Merrill — single · EV 92 mph · LA -5° · 87 ft Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +9° · 77 ft Walter Núñez — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 133 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -9° · 71 ft Tony Cameron — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +14° · 134 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Alan Maloney — single · EV 100 mph · LA -20° · 95 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft Lawrence Spoelstra — single · EV 109 mph · LA +4° · 104 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +18° · 154 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
71% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.9 vs expected
contact: 8.1 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-4.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pancho Pfister 101 / +32° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Walter Núñez 98 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Jide Falby 66 / +15° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Henri Merrill 92 / -5° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Manuel Suazo 80 / +9° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Orioles
29% deserve-to-win  ·  2.5 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 2.3 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mackenzie Sigourney 82 / +18° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Rill Kautz 92 / -2° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Alan Maloney 100 / -20° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.56
Lawrence Spoelstra 109 / +4° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Dyllan Ison 87 / -12° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.34
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