==============================================================================
Auckland Tailors 8, Melbourne Baseball Club 6               2046-04-27 · #1225
at Sabra Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Melbourne               6      0    6    8    1
Auckland                8      0    8   10    0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brondello   ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Balko       1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Longley pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mabil       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Bhardwa ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Irvine      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Taylor      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Sainsbu pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Rios    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Tolo    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Mulliga c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Lopez   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Stott   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Buchano ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  j-Nwachuk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  k-Reid    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Talbot      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  31   6   8   2   0   0   4   2  13   0   0  0.258
  2B: Balko (1), Gurriel (10).
  SB: Talbot (3).
  E: Brondello (3).
  HBP: Talbot (2).
  GIDP: Irvine (2), Buchanon (3).
  a-Ran for Balko in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Mabil in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Taylor in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  e-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at C in the 7th.
  g-Grounded out in the 2nd.
  h-Ran for Lopez in the 2nd.
  i-Batted for Tolo in the 4th.
  j-Struck out for Rios in the 4th.
  k-Batted for Stott in the 4th.

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Evert       ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Rangi       cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Petratos    2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Teh         lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   3   1   0  0.250
Brock       c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
White       3b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Vicelich    1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.000
Zyl         rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Young   ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Jackson     p  ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Reath       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Rivera      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   8  10   2   0   1   8   5  12   1   0  0.333
  2B: Rangi (7), Teh (2).
  HR: Jackson (1), off Yoganathan.
  CS: White (7).
  HBP: Brock (1).
  a-Batted for Zyl in the 5th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Taylor ..............    11    6  22%    3    2    2    2    4    0   42    -
Yoganathan (L, 0-1) .    12   10  37%    4    3    3    2    2    1   41  1-0
Burgess .............    13   11  41%    3    3    3    1    6    0   48  1-1

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jackson .............    13    9  33%    2    2    2    1    6    0   53    -
Bowen ...............     4    2   7%    1    3    3    1    1    0   10  3-2
Delany (W, 1-0) .....    13   14  52%    3    1    1    0    5    0   45  2-1
Rodriguez ...........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0   10  1-0

  Batting order: Auckland Tailors (home) batted first; Melbourne Baseball Club batted second.
  Seconds: MBC o25 (6-8), AT o25 (8-0).
  First pitch 7:35 PM PETT. Weather: 39°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 219153.
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 3 Hira Vicelich Richard Evert (3B) 0–1
B 3 Hira Vicelich Joe Brock (2B) 0–2
B 14 Marnus Jackson Brendon Petratos (3B) 0–3
B 14 Marnus Jackson Alex Young (1B) 0–4
B 14 Marnus Jackson Marnus Jackson (HR) 0–5
B 17 Keat Teh Marnus Jackson (3B) 0–6
B 17 Keat Teh Hira Vicelich (2B) 0–7
B 21 Richard Evert Martin White (3B) 0–8
T 4 Josh Lopez Pat King (3B) 1–8
T 7 Daniel Taylor Yunieski Gurriel (3B) 2–8
T 7 Mario Balko Hilton Talbot (3B) 3–8
T 7 Mario Balko Ivan Stott (2B) 4–8
T 8 Yunieski Gurriel Harry Sainsbury (3B) 5–8
T 17 Harry Sainsbury Mustafa Longley (3B) 6–8
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sabra Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 462' · RF 357' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
341' 462' 357' Mario Balko — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 279 ft Pat King — single · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 197 ft Yunieski Gurriel — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 163 ft Josh Lopez — error · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Anant Bhardwaj — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 162 ft Mario Balko — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft Pat King — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -15° · 73 ft Brad Irvine — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Kyle Mulligan — line_out · EV 58 mph · LA +16° · 73 ft Francois Buchanon — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -6° · 63 ft Adam Reid — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Pat King — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Yunieski Gurriel — single · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 67 ft Darren Brondello — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 318 ft
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
341' 462' 357' Richard Evert — single · EV 104 mph · LA +14° · 205 ft Bruno Reath — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -22° · 65 ft Martin White — single · EV 79 mph · LA -3° · 75 ft Hira Vicelich — error · EV 60 mph · LA +7° · 57 ft Marnus Jackson — single · EV 81 mph · LA -10° · 77 ft Alex Young — single · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 93 ft Richard Evert — line_out · EV 102 mph · LA +19° · 256 ft Brendon Petratos — single · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Keat Teh — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Marnus Jackson — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +35° · 454 ft Martin White — single · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Joe Brock — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Keat Teh — double · EV 89 mph · LA +38° · 309 ft Brendon Petratos — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +30° · 221 ft Richard Evert — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +14° · 96 ft Richard Evert — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +45° · 302 ft Colin Rangi — double · EV 99 mph · LA +25° · 298 ft Brendon Petratos — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +26° · 320 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Melbourne Baseball Club
20% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 7.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Darren Brondello 119 / +17° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.74
Mario Balko 92 / +31° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.20
Yunieski Gurriel 92 / +14° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.15
Mario Balko 92 / +28° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.80
Pat King 76 / +29° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.80
Auckland Tailors
80% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 14.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-0.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Richard Evert 102 / +19° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Brendon Petratos 101 / +26° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Bruno Reath 68 / -22° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Colin Rangi 99 / +25° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Martin White 79 / -3° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.71
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →