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Red Sox 4, Orioles 3                                        2026-08-02 · #1252
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  4    4    4    0
Baltimore               3    3    4    1

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Cameron     1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Wolfe       3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Pfister     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Núñez       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Harrell     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Hack        c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Tatum   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cordano     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Barnhill    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Nytes   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Miranda ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Saravia pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  13   4   4   2   0   0   4   4   1   0   0  0.308
  2B: Cameron (10), Wolfe (1).
  CS: Harrell (10).
  a-Ran for Hack in the 4th.
  b-Grounded out in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 4th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solo        p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  0.500
Kautz       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Ison        2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Barba   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Heath       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-López   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Purchase    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Melch   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   3   4   1   0   0   3   4   6   0   0  0.148
  2B: Solo (1).
  CS: Solo (1).
  E: Thompson (7).
  GIDP: Barba (1), Thompson (1).
  a-Ran for Ison in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Tejeda in the 3rd.
  c-Grounded out for López in the 9th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Barnhill ............     9    6   28  3.1    2    2    2    1    3    0    -
Mejía (W, 1-1) ......    10   11   31  3.1    0    1    1    1    2    0  2-1
Annacone ............    11   10   41  3.7    1    0    0    2    1    0    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Solo (L, 5-8) .......    11    6   37  3.4    3    3    2    3    0    0    -
Nealon ..............     6    6   17  2.8    1    1    1    1    1    0  2-0

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Barnhill (Outs 1-6) → Mejía (Outs 7-17) → Annacone (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cameron (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Solo (Outs 1-6) → Nealon (Outs 7-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tejeda (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Heath (Outs 1-12)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 1:10 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind in · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 7600.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.50
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 6 Harold Solo Ulises Barba (2B) 0–1 —
B 6 Harold Solo Harold Solo (3B) 0–2 —
B 11 Destyn Thompson Edson López (3B) 0–3 —
T 3 Tony Cameron Mark Harrell (1B) 1–3 0.38
T 3 Eliot Hack Tony Cameron (2B) 2–3 0.25
T 6 Inman Nytes Xzavier Wolfe (2B) 3–3 0.14
T 12 Xzavier Wolfe Aleksandar Tatum (1B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.50
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Red Sox — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Henri Merrill — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Walter Núñez — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 121 ft Mark Harrell — single · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 80 ft Tony Cameron — double · EV 115 mph · LA +14° · 253 ft Eliot Hack — single · EV 91 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Vinicius Cordano — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -23° · 85 ft Inman Nytes — error · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Daylan Miranda — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA -2° · 66 ft Dexter Inniss — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -22° · 65 ft Xzavier Wolfe — double · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 297 ft Mark Harrell — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 73 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Sidney Foust — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft Ahmad Heath — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +12° · 67 ft Rónald Samudio — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 213 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Harold Solo — double · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 265 ft Ulises Barba — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 218 ft Destyn Thompson — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -9° · 49 ft Edson López — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -6° · 54 ft Andre Melch — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 150 ft Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Dylan Purchase — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Sidney Foust — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Ulises Barba — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +7° · 49 ft Harold Solo — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA +3° · 75 ft Kristian Alison — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 261 ft Ahmad Heath — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +31° · 223 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
67% deserve-to-win  ·  4.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Xzavier Wolfe 96 / +27° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Mark Harrell 84 / +8° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Eliot Hack 91 / -6° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Walter Núñez 72 / +18° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Tony Cameron 115 / +14° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.47
Orioles
33% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Harold Solo 92 / +26° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Rónald Samudio 92 / +20° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Kristian Alison 92 / +25° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Andre Melch 76 / +20° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Dylan Purchase 76 / +12° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
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