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Braves 5, Padres 4                                          2026-08-02 · #1251
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               4    4    2    1
Atlanta                 5    5    5    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilcox      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Lettiere    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Deery       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schwinger   c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Banuelos    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Clarke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Fernández   lf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gleeson ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Manzano ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pearman     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  28   4   2   0   0   0   2   5  14   0   0  0.071
  E: Deery (1).
  GIDP: Andrade (6), Atehortua (10).
  a-Ran for Banuelos in the 4th.
  b-Grounded out for Clarke in the 6th.
  c-Struck out for Gleeson in the 8th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Parkes      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Ramon-E pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nilo        cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bray        rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Sherman     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Togashi     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Powlus  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Nightin ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Siska   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ortiz       j  ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
María       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   5   5   0   0   0   4   8   5   0   0  0.208
  CS: María (3).
  GIDP: Bray (3).
  a-Ran for Parkes in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Togashi in the 6th.
  c-Singled in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (L, 15-5) ....    31   24  89%    5    5    2    8    5    0   99    -

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parkes (W, 4-3) .....    18   16  59%    2    1    1    0   10    0   64    -
Morejón .............    10    6  22%    0    3    3    4    2    0   33  1-1
Rodriguez ...........     5    5  19%    0    0    0    1    2    0   22  2-0

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Schwinger (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Lettiere (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Deery (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-24)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Parkes (Outs 1-16) → Morejón (Outs 17-22) → Rodriguez (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Togashi (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Padres batted first.
  First pitch 2:00 PM CT. Weather: 98°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 339895.
  Powerplays: Braves — Nightingale NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 1.33
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Cary Schwinger Israel Fernández (3B) 1–0 —
T 18 Mark Pearman Lucas Clarke (3B) 2–0 —
T 18 Cary Schwinger Israel Fernández (3B) 3–0 —
T 21 Reed Lettiere Keshav Atehortua (3B) 4–0 —
B 15 Beals Powlus Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 4–1 1.00
B 19 James Pfister Edgar Ortiz (3B) 4–2 1.12
B 22 Jefferson Di María Cormani Weah (3B) 4–3 1.20
B 22 Hugo Bray Oscar Nilo (3B) 4–4 0.60
B 24 Beals Powlus Edgar Ortiz (3B) 4–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 1.33
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Padres — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 158 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Etienne Gleeson — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Israel Fernández — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 163 ft Keshav Atehortua — error · EV 57 mph · LA -1° · 54 ft Haxzel Andrade — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +6° · 51 ft Reed Lettiere — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 205 ft Bertram Wilcox — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 269 ft Trevor Deery — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' James Pfister — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 100 ft Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 132 ft Hugo Bray — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 330 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA -8° · 63 ft Beals Powlus — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Donny Nightingale — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Jefferson Di María — error · EV 58 mph · LA -0° · 55 ft Todd Chu — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 180 ft James Pfister — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +21° · 71 ft Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 49 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Hugo Bray — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Mac Sherman — single · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 106 ft Beals Powlus — single · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 157 ft Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +23° · 258 ft James Pfister — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -10° · 65 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 55 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -18° · 56 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
12% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 4.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-2.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bertram Wilcox 98 / +22° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Bertram Wilcox 76 / +22° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Stefan Banuelos 76 / +22° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Etienne Gleeson 92 / +3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Israel Fernández 76 / +7° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Braves
88% deserve-to-win  ·  7.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-2.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hugo Bray 92 / +38° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Todd Chu 94 / +23° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Hugo Bray 55 / +10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Todd Chu 84 / +20° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Oscar Nilo 76 / +17° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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