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Brewers 10, Stars 6                                         2026-08-02 · #1254
at Bussaglia Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Nashville               6    6    7    0
Milwaukee              10   10    5    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Burani      2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Karouani    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Gamboa  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sappington  lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fusano      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Cubillán    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Torrero     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.333
Caballero   c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Trujillo    p  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Giannou     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31   6   7   2   0   1   5   1  16   0   1  0.226
  2B: Trujillo (4), Giannou (9).
  HR: Spence (5), off Ebun.
  SB: Caballero (5), Trujillo (2).
  CS: Caballero (9).
  Squeeze: Torrero (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Karouani in the 7th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Williams    ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   1   0  0.333
Gentry      lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Edwards     rf ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Yani        c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.333
Penickova   1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Trejo       2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Saravia     cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Ebun        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  b-Mesidor pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Espinoz ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ayers       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29  10   5   1   0   0  10   7  18   1   1  0.172
  2B: Eggleston (2).
  SB: Mesidor (6).
  HBP: Ebun (1).
  GIDP: Espinoza (7).
  a-Batted for Saravia in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Ebun in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out in the 8th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Trujillo ............     9    7  26%    2    3    3    1    4    0   34    -
Forrest (L, 4-9) ....    15   10  37%    2    4    4    3    7    0   70    -
Louis ...............    13   10  37%    1    3    3    3    7    0   58  1-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (W, 18-3) ......    32   27 100%    7    6    5    1   16    1  131    -

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Trujillo (Outs 1-7) → Forrest (Outs 8-17) → Louis (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Caballero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cubillán (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Torrero (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Yani (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Penickova (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edwards (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Stars batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM CT. Weather: 79°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 639731.
  Walk-Back runs: off Ebun 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 15.00
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.67
     9 outs left: 3.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Raymond Penickova Daniel Edwards (2B) 0–1 —
B 6 Jesse Williams Steven Kaplan (3B) 0–2 —
B 6 Jesse Williams Raymond Penickova (2B) 0–3 —
B 15 Clifford Irving Sergio Saravia (2B) 0–4 —
B 17 Donni Eggleston Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–5 —
B 17 Donni Eggleston Clifford Irving (2B) 0–6 —
B 17 Donni Eggleston Terry Ayers (1B) 0–7 —
B 20 Stan Mesidor Donni Eggleston (3B) 0–8 —
B 23 Steven Kaplan Daniel Edwards (3B) 0–9 —
B 23 Steven Kaplan Noel Gentry (2B) 0–10 —
T 3 Sean Spence Sean Spence (HR) 1–10 1.25
T 10 Elias Torrero Sean Spence (3B) 2–10 1.59
T 23 Samuel Giannou Sean Spence (1B) 3–10 6.00
T 24 Derlis Trujillo Samuel Giannou (3B) 4–10 7.00
T 24 Derlis Trujillo Manuel Gamboa (1B) 5–10 6.00
T 25 Justo Burani Derlis Trujillo (3B) 6–10 7.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 15.00
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.67
9 outs left 3.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Stars — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
344' 415' 304' Sean Spence — hr · EV 107 mph · LA +44° · 455 ft Elias Torrero — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +4° · 61 ft Derlis Trujillo — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Samuel Giannou — double · EV 89 mph · LA +15° · 163 ft Derlis Trujillo — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -17° · 65 ft Tony Caballero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 156 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -0° · 66 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 81 mph · LA -10° · 77 ft Khosilot El Karouani — single · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 114 ft Elias Torrero — infield_single · EV 64 mph · LA -13° · 60 ft Derlis Trujillo — double · EV 87 mph · LA +27° · 246 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Noel Gentry — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +5° · 91 ft Daniel Edwards — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 119 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +2° · 77 ft Raymond Penickova — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 344 ft Donni Eggleston — double · EV 74 mph · LA +46° · 220 ft Andres Espinoza — double_play · EV 98 mph · LA -7° · 93 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 87 mph · LA +5° · 83 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 86 mph · LA +15° · 145 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
22% deserve-to-win  ·  2.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +3.6 vs expected
contact: 7.1 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+4.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Derlis Trujillo 87 / +27° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.62
Samuel Giannou 89 / +15° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Elias Torrero 64 / -13° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Sean Spence 107 / +44° Oppo Home Run 3.3 → 4 +0.67
Sean Spence 81 / -10° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Brewers
78% deserve-to-win  ·  4.7 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +5.3 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donni Eggleston 74 / +46° Center Double 0.1 → 2 +1.85
Daniel Edwards 94 / +10° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jesse Williams 87 / +5° Oppo Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Raymond Penickova 100 / -8° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Andres Espinoza 98 / -7° Pull Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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