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Canaries 3, Tigers 2                                        2026-08-02 · #1255
at Kuvvatov Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              3    3    6    0
Detroit                 2    2    4    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Crader      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Barron  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Brickha pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kramer      2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Pastore     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0  0.000
Rushing     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Navarro     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Richey  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nachand     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Kerr    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Cordero ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Levells pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.500
Totals                  23   3   6   0   0   0   3   6   3   2   0  0.261
  SB: Richey (4).
  CS: Navarro (6).
  GIDP: Cordero (3).
  a-Ran for Crader in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Hollenbeck in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Nachand in the 3rd.
  e-Batted in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Richey in the 5th.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Amigo       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Whoriskey   2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Grimaldo    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ndiaye      ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Monroe      3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Borden      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Day         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Delatte ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ali         p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Acebo   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-McMicha pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Sears   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Takuma  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Massey      j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kuhler      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   2   4   1   0   0   2   1  14   0   0  0.138
  2B: Massey (1).
  CS: Massey (2), Acebo (12).
  a-Struck out for Day in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Ali in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Acebo in the 6th.
  d-Grounded out for Kuhler in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (W, 12-3) ....    28   27 100%    3    2    2    1   14    0  100    -

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ali (L, 5-9) ........    29   22  81%    6    3    3    6    3    0   90    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Navarro (Outs 1-27)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-22)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ali (Outs 1-22)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-22)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Borden (Outs 1-22)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Whoriskey (Outs 1-22)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-22)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ndiaye (Outs 1-22)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-22)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-22)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Lutmer (Outs 1-22)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM CT. Weather: 80°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 906190.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 21 Ricki Sears Barry McMichael (2B) 0–1 —
B 22 Noah Massey Kentaro Takuma (2B) 0–2 —
T 18 Jesse Woodall Welby Richey (3B) 1–2 0.67
T 19 Jake Levells Andrea Kramer (3B) 2–2 0.38
T 22 Andrea Kramer Jam Brickhandler (3B) 3–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Canaries — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft Vincent Crader — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +35° · 237 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 52 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Levar Nachand — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +23° · 132 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +27° · 91 ft Jesse Woodall — fly_out · EV 69 mph · LA +26° · 150 ft Grant Cordero — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -7° · 66 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 87 mph · LA +7° · 83 ft Jake Levells — infield_single · EV 52 mph · LA -26° · 49 ft Brandon Barron — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 231 ft Jayden Rushing — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +12° · 65 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 158 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +28° · 228 ft Jesse Woodall — infield_single · EV 54 mph · LA +19° · 73 ft Grant Cordero — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Renaldo Pastore — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 176 ft Jesse Woodall — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 185 ft Jayden Rushing — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +13° · 85 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 73 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +22° · 171 ft Trevor Borden — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft Noah Massey — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +4° · 64 ft Ricki Sears — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA +0° · 60 ft Trevor Borden — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +33° · 345 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — line_out · EV 109 mph · LA +15° · 241 ft Noah Massey — double · EV 101 mph · LA +14° · 199 ft Liam Lutmer — single · EV 75 mph · LA +17° · 125 ft Trevor Borden — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -21° · 68 ft Gardnar Ndiaye — single · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 202 ft Jon Grimaldo — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +26° · 240 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 161 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
91% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -2.5 vs expected
contact: 6.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jake Levells 52 / -26° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Renaldo Pastore 93 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jam Brickhandler 87 / +7° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Ramón Navarro 52 / +13° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Roberto Lacava 52 / +11° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Tigers
9% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 8.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-4.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thai-Son Whoriskey 109 / +15° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.46
Trevor Borden 97 / +33° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Noah Massey 101 / +14° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Thai-Son Whoriskey 81 / +19° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Thai-Son Whoriskey 79 / +22° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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