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Nationals 2, Phillies 1                                     2026-08-03 · #1256
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            1    1    3    0
Washington              2    2    2    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Mattke      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Awoniyi     lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Santos      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Israilov    c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Logar   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Craft       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Moor        3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Skeen       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Maynard     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ka'apana    ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Vásquez pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Borges  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   3   1   0   0   1   4  10   0   0  0.115
  2B: Israilov (25).
  CS: Santos (8).
  GIDP: Awoniyi 2 (5), Borges (4).
  a-Ran for Israilov in the 5th.
  b-Ran in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Vásquez in the 3rd.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Morel       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Corrales    ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Foster  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Devezin     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Cheng       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cruz        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Thompki ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Shi         c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Abadía      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Burrows ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Heffner pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Baloy   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   2   2   0   0   0   2   3  14   0   0  0.080
  HBP: Corrales (1).
  GIDP: Fábrega (2).
  a-Batted for Corrales in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Cruz in the 5th.
  c-Struck out in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maynard (L, 3-3) ....    30   27 100%    2    2    2    3   15    0   96    -

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía (W, 5-18) ....    29   27 100%    3    1    1    4   10    0   98    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Maynard (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Skeen (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Moor (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ka'apana (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Craft (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Shi (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Morel (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM ET. Weather: 91°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 703890.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 13 Bright Awoniyi Marco Logar (2B) 1–0 —
B 21 Yoel Morel Renaldo Corrales (2B) 1–1 0.50
B 26 Kendry Baloy Kendry Baloy (2B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 154 ft Bright Awoniyi — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -5° · 54 ft Sandy Santos — error · EV 75 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Godfrey Skeen — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +23° · 178 ft Caleb Maynard — single · EV 83 mph · LA -15° · 79 ft Will Craft — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 201 ft Daniel Israilov — double · EV 96 mph · LA +29° · 318 ft Bright Awoniyi — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +4° · 59 ft Devron Borges — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA +4° · 61 ft Bright Awoniyi — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA +1° · 62 ft Will Craft — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 261 ft Anthony Mattke — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 330 ft Bright Awoniyi — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 290 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Cheng-wei Cheng — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +33° · 190 ft Yoel Morel — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +31° · 342 ft Zhiqiang Shi — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +4° · 79 ft Erwin Crowdus — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -2° · 58 ft Zhiqiang Shi — single · EV 83 mph · LA +0° · 79 ft Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 75 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Isaac Fábrega — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA -4° · 76 ft Yoel Morel — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +16° · 188 ft Zhiqiang Shi — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -6° · 76 ft Frickson Abadía — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +5° · 94 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
55% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.1 vs expected
contact: 6.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthony Mattke 92 / +38° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Daniel Israilov 96 / +29° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Will Craft 92 / +25° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Bright Awoniyi 92 / +30° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Caleb Maynard 83 / -15° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Nationals
45% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 4.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-2.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yoel Morel 98 / +31° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Yoel Morel 94 / +16° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Zhiqiang Shi 83 / +0° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Devron San Miguelito 75 / +11° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Frickson Abadía 99 / +5° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
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