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Orioles 6, Red Sox 4                                        2026-08-03 · #1259
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  4    4    2    0
Baltimore               6    6    6    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Castillo    p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Pope    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Tatum   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Harrell     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Falby       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cameron     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Hack        c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Cordano ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Saravia pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   4   2   0   0   0   2   3  11   0   0  0.077
  SB: Harrell (5).
  HBP: Merrill (1), Cordano (5).
  GIDP: Inniss (3).
  a-Ran for Castillo in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Merrill in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Saravia in the 6th.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 4th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Maloney ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Heath       rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Mills       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Alison      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Samudio     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-López   pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Foust   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lichnov pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Adams       j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Thompson    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31   6   6   1   0   0   5   3  10   0   0  0.194
  2B: López (6).
  CS: Sigourney (10), López (7).
  GIDP: Alison (2).
  a-Grounded out for Purchase in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Samudio in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Andrade in the 3rd.
  d-Struck out for Barba in the 3rd.
  e-Struck out for Kautz in the 8th.
  f-Ran for Maloney in the 9th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo ............    10    7  26%    2    3    3    0    3    0   34    -
Maldonado ...........    15   15  56%    2    0    0    1    6    0   58  1-0
Schellenger (L, 1-2)      8    5  19%    1    3    3    2    1    0   27  1-1

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Andrade (W, 3-3) ....    20   17  63%    2    2    2    1    5    0   76    -
Schmelzle (F, 19) ...    11   10  37%    0    2    2    2    6    0   41  1-0

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-7) → Maldonado (Outs 8-22) → Schellenger (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cameron (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Falby (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Andrade (Outs 1-17) → Schmelzle (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ison (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Heath (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind in · Overcast · Light rain. seed 876581.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.88
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 6 Jhonny Andrade Dan Mills (3B) 0–1 —
B 7 Edson López Edson López (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Edson López Ulises Barba (3B) 0–3 —
B 22 Destyn Thompson Jason Adams (2B) 0–4 —
B 24 Leonardo Tejeda Destyn Thompson (2B) 0–5 —
B 26 Jason Adams Nicolas Lichnovsky (2B) 0–6 —
T 9 Henri Merrill Diego Saravia (3B) 1–6 1.00
T 9 Pancho Pfister Ivo Malard (2B) 2–6 0.83
T 19 Aleksandar Tatum Jacob Hodges (3B) 3–6 1.50
T 23 Ivo Malard Ferdi Pope (3B) 4–6 2.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.88
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Red Sox — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +5° · 85 ft Walter Núñez — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 82 ft Mark Harrell — single · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 142 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -16° · 61 ft Eliot Hack — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Dexter Inniss — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 282 ft Ivo Malard — single · EV 67 mph · LA +14° · 85 ft Diego Saravia — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft Bernard Strachan — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +18° · 160 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 130 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 332 ft Eliot Hack — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -6° · 69 ft Dexter Inniss — double_play · EV 72 mph · LA -18° · 69 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Leonardo Tejeda — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 117 ft Dan Mills — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -19° · 78 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -5° · 73 ft Rónald Samudio — error · EV 64 mph · LA +4° · 61 ft Edson López — double · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 191 ft Jason Adams — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 159 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 141 ft Alan Maloney — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA -5° · 61 ft Dyllan Ison — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +10° · 90 ft Ahmad Heath — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Leonardo Tejeda — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -12° · 80 ft Jason Adams — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA +19° · 95 ft Dylan Purchase — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -2° · 85 ft Leonardo Tejeda — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +28° · 297 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 77 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft Kristian Alison — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -14° · 63 ft Leonardo Tejeda — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — fly_out · EV 57 mph · LA +32° · 117 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
72% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 6.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-4.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pancho Pfister 100 / +10° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Walter Núñez 94 / +34° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Dexter Inniss 92 / +28° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Ivo Malard 67 / +14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Bernard Strachan 83 / +18° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Orioles
28% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +3.0 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Edson López 92 / +17° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Dan Mills 77 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Leonardo Tejeda 95 / +28° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Dyllan Ison 81 / +10° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Leonardo Tejeda 76 / +22° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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