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Giants 5, Orcas 4  (4 SI)                                   2026-08-03 · #1260
at Kolenda Field
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Vancouver               4      0    4    5    0
San Francisco           4      1    5    8    0

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Peavy   pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Godín       rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.200
Noonan      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Irvin   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Quintero    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Millar  ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Edmonson    cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Teeguarden  c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Jenkins     p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.500
  d-Beigel  pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Roker       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Turrentine  j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  37   4   5   0   0   0   4   9  12   0   1  0.135
  SB: Jenkins (1).
  CS: Jenkins (1).
  HBP: Roker (2).
  GIDP: Cuéllar (1).
  a-Ran for Mendez in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Noonan in the 4th.
  c-Batted for Quintero in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kraszewski  1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Rosado  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mateas      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fornaroli   ss ......    5   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   4   0   0  0.200
Matos       rf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  b-Hoffken pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Galloway    lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Jimenez pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Reyes       2b ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.200
Leininger   3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.250
Estrada     cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Figuero pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
McNeal      c  ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Mantía  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Short   ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Kelley  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Lacasse     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sundling    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  39   5   8   3   0   1   5   5  14   0   0  0.205
  2B: Jimenez (3), Matos (27), Reyes (6).
  HR: Fornaroli (1), off Jenkins.
  GIDP: Lacasse (2), McNeal (4).
  a-Ran for Kraszewski in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Matos in the 8th.
  c-Ran for Galloway in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Estrada in the 4th.
  e-Batted in the 5th.
  f-Batted in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 9th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jenkins (L, 9-3) ....    35   29 107%    4    5    5    5   14    1  159    -
Ávila ...............     8    9  33%    3    0    0    0    1    0   28    -

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mateas (W, 13-9) ....    32   26  96%    3    3    3    8   10    0  116    -
Gipson ..............    13   13  48%    2    1    1    1    2    0   56  2-0

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-38)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Jenkins (Outs 1-29) → Ávila (Outs 30-38)
CATCHER (C)       | Teeguarden (Outs 1-38)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Noonan (Outs 1-38)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Quintero (Outs 1-38)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-38)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-38)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-38)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edmonson (Outs 1-38)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Godín (Outs 1-38)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Mateas (Outs 1-26) → Gipson (Outs 27-39)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kraszewski (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Reyes (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Leininger (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fornaroli (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Estrada (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-39)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted second; Orcas batted first.
  Super-innings: 4.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 859042.
  Powerplays: Giants — Mantía NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Connor Jenkins Norris Mendez (3B) 1–0 —
T 14 Coen Turrentine Amarien Beigel (3B) 2–0 —
T 14 Coen Turrentine Yerry Cuéllar (2B) 3–0 —
T 23 John Millar Louis Badger (2B) 4–0 —
B 7 Antolín Matos Brad Galloway (3B) 4–1 0.60
B 7 Jhonny Reyes Reuben Leininger (3B) 4–2 0.45
B 18 Tarni Fornaroli Jerome Short (1B) 4–3 0.67
B 18 Tarni Fornaroli Tarni Fornaroli (HR) 4–4 0.33
SB 38 Jhonny Reyes Reuben Leininger (1B) 4–5 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Orcas — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Norris Mendez — single · EV 78 mph · LA -11° · 74 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -16° · 80 ft Herb Noonan — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Louis Badger — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +43° · 330 ft John Millar — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -8° · 71 ft Coen Turrentine — single · EV 91 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Amarien Beigel — ground_out · EV 108 mph · LA +6° · 103 ft Connor Jenkins — single · EV 90 mph · LA +20° · 203 ft Yerry Cuéllar — double_play · EV 113 mph · LA +3° · 107 ft Alexis Edmonson — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 120 ft Louis Badger — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 83 ft John Millar — single · EV 66 mph · LA +11° · 65 ft Alexis Edmonson — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +30° · 302 ft Andrea Peavy — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -15° · 64 ft Stuart Irvin — fielders_choice · EV 59 mph · LA -17° · 56 ft John Millar — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 144 ft Omar Godín — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +38° · 236 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
322' 445' 350' Brad Galloway — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Reuben Leininger — single · EV 99 mph · LA +12° · 158 ft Hervé Capdevila — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +32° · 318 ft Raziel Jimenez — double · EV 102 mph · LA +22° · 290 ft Leo Lacasse — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 109 ft Orien Hoffken — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 320 ft Antolín Matos — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA -1° · 63 ft Jhonny Reyes — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +37° · 175 ft Jaume La Mantía — single · EV 88 mph · LA +23° · 219 ft Parker McNeal — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 153 ft Tarni Fornaroli — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +40° · 426 ft Reuben Leininger — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +10° · 116 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -20° · 74 ft Antolín Matos — double · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 250 ft Parker McNeal — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +38° · 263 ft Reuben Leininger — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA +2° · 55 ft Parker McNeal — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Jhonny Reyes — double · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 395 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
49% deserve-to-win  ·  7.5 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.5 vs expected
contact: 9.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-4.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Louis Badger 91 / +43° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Alexis Edmonson 95 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles 90 / +13° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Norris Mendez 78 / -11° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Alexis Edmonson 94 / +30° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Giants
51% deserve-to-win  ·  7.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 15.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-2.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tarni Fornaroli 104 / +40° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Orien Hoffken 100 / +27° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Parker McNeal 95 / +12° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Hervé Capdevila 94 / +32° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Antolín Matos 67 / -1° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
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