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Reds 5, Cubs 4                                              2026-08-03 · #1261
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 4    4    4    0
Cincinnati              5    5    8    1

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Saprissa    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Kurth   pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Santana     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Mueller pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Segovia     rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Shurtleff   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Onyiuke     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Lamas   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Myers       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Casey   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-McCullo ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  f-Palermo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Lamas   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Hollowe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-May     ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  j-Wambach pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  k-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   4   0   0   0   2   5   6   0   0  0.138
  SB: Mueller 2 (11).
  CS: Hollowell (12), Kurth (5).
  GIDP: Heinze (9), Casey (4).
  a-Ran for Saprissa in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Santana in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Onyiuke in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Myers in the 5th.
  e-Walked for Sarkissian in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Campaz in the 6th.
  g-Grounded out for Hollowell in the 8th.
  h-Ran for McCullough in the 5th.
  i-Walked in the 6th.
  j-Ran for May in the 7th.
  k-Grounded out for Palermo in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Post        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Suarez  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
David       c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Acosta      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Dilworth    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Morejón pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Murakami    cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
Subhash     ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Roy         3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Taupaki     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   8   2   0   0   5   5   6   0   0  0.276
  2B: David (9), Roy (4).
  SB: Acosta (4), Subhash (5).
  E: Roy (7).
  GIDP: Subhash (6).
  a-Ran for Post in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Ribera in the 3rd.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (L, 9-9) .....    23   20  74%    6    4    4    3    3    0   80    -
Espinosa ............     8    7  26%    0    1    1    2    3    0   26  2-0

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Post (W, 6-4) .......    31   25  93%    4    4    3    4    4    0   96    -
Zamora ..............     3    2   7%    0    0    0    1    2    0   13  2-0

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-20) → Espinosa (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Onyiuke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Myers (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-25) → Zamora (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 1:05 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 567055.
  Powerplays: Cubs — Wambach NF (O12)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 4.50
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Adam Roy Dariel Morejón (2B) 0–1 —
B 7 Ed Tsoubanos Adam Roy (3B) 0–2 —
B 11 Blaise Dilworth Zachary Subhash (3B) 0–3 —
B 20 Johnny Acosta Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 0–4 —
B 25 Zachary Subhash Carter Suarez (2B) 0–5 —
T 15 Erick May Michael Mueller (3B) 1–5 1.25
T 17 Michael Mueller Davion Kurth (3B) 2–5 1.20
T 23 Brian Verhoeven Harold Palermo (3B) 3–5 2.25
T 25 Teófilo Segovia Brian Verhoeven (3B) 4–5 3.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 4.50
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Cubs — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Omni Onyiuke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Tomas Heinze — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +4° · 76 ft Samuel Sarkissian — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 59 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Isaiah Campaz — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +11° · 98 ft Jaume Santana — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Douglas Casey — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 189 ft Víctor Lamas — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft Mikel Lamas — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +6° · 61 ft Davion Kurth — single · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Brian Verhoeven — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft Phillip Nealon — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Kendrick Wambach — error · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Bryce Shurtleff — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA -3° · 66 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA +0° · 54 ft Omni Onyiuke — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Isaiah Campaz — single · EV 92 mph · LA -0° · 87 ft Douglas Casey — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Tomas Heinze — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 58 mph · LA +16° · 73 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' George Post — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 81 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -2° · 78 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 79 mph · LA +1° · 75 ft Zachary Subhash — double_play · EV 89 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Ed Tsoubanos — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +26° · 276 ft Adam Roy — double · EV 96 mph · LA +23° · 267 ft Dariel Morejón — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Shelby Warwick — line_out · EV 106 mph · LA +22° · 312 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 246 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 82 mph · LA -8° · 78 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -15° · 87 ft Johnny Acosta — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +7° · 92 ft Bret David — double · EV 105 mph · LA +26° · 348 ft Adam Roy — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +28° · 226 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 126 ft Johnny Acosta — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 114 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -2° · 82 ft George Post — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA -6° · 62 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +10° · 91 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
13% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Davion Kurth 52 / +15° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Isaiah Campaz 92 / +0° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Isaiah Campaz 80 / +11° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Teófilo Segovia 58 / +16° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Ivan Saprissa 76 / +19° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Reds
87% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 12.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-4.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shelby Warwick 106 / +22° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Adam Roy 96 / +23° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Felix Ribera 79 / +1° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Ed Tsoubanos 94 / +26° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Zachary Subhash 82 / -8° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
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