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Giants 6, Astros 5                                          2026-08-06 · #1289
at Kolenda Field
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 5    5    7    1
San Francisco           6    6    3    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rivas       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
O'Connor    2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Morales     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Braun       ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Moros       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Neely       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Gómez   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Abrams      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Arboled ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Konig   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Henríqu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Trejo       j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  26   5   7   0   0   0   5   6   7   0   0  0.269
  SB: Rivas (1), O'Connor (5), Arboleda (2), Trejo (5).
  E: Trejo (1).
  HBP: Moros (2), Thom (2).
  GIDP: O'Connor (4), Trejo (2).
  a-Ran for Thom in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Abrams in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Henríquez in the 4th.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Estrada     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Jimenez ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cardozo     1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Rosado  pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Kelley      ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Anger   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Matos       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Galloway    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Reyes       c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Marte       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Leininger   2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Figuero pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Moore       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   2  0.000
Totals                  12   6   3   0   0   0   6   4   6   0   3  0.250

  a-Grounded out for Estrada in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Cardozo in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Kelley in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Leininger in the 3rd.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abrams ..............    11   10  37%    1    2    2    2    5    0   47    -
Schueck (L, 2-4) ....     5    1   4%    2    3    3    2    1    0   13  1-0
Berger ..............     0    1   4%    0    1    1    0    0    0    0  2-1

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moore (W, 5-7) ......    18   16  59%    2    3    3    2    5    0   70    -
Gipson ..............    13   11  41%    2    2    2    4    2    0   45  1-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Abrams (Outs 1-10) → Schueck (Outs 11-11) → Berger (Outs 12-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Neely (Outs 1-12)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Moore (Outs 1-16) → Gipson (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Leininger (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Marte (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Estrada (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 75°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 853921.
  Powerplays: Giants — Anger NF (O21)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Khalil Abrams Dante O'Connor (3B) 1–0 —
T 12 Jeyland Morales Brayan Braun (3B) 2–0 —
T 16 Yasniel Arboleda Angel Henríquez (3B) 3–0 —
T 22 Scoville Rivas Mirko Moros (3B) 4–0 —
T 23 Yasniel Arboleda Marcos Kingsbury (2B) 5–0 —
B 9 Reuben Leininger Ignacio Rosado (3B) 5–1 0.83
B 9 José Marte Manolo Figueroa (3B) 5–2 0.67
B 11 Alafia Kelley Manolo Figueroa (3B) 5–3 0.56
B 11 Antolín Matos Jhonny Reyes (3B) 5–4 0.38
B 11 Antolín Matos Ignacio Rosado (2B) 5–5 0.19
B 11 Apostolos Moore Eddie Anger (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Astros — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Dante O'Connor — single · EV 64 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Jeyland Morales — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +41° · 265 ft Yasniel Arboleda — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +42° · 291 ft Cedrick Konig — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -19° · 65 ft Scoville Rivas — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Marcos Kingsbury — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +35° · 229 ft Yasniel Arboleda — single · EV 59 mph · LA +15° · 70 ft Benicio Trejo — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 65 mph · LA -1° · 62 ft Dante O'Connor — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft Yasniel Arboleda — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Brayan Braun — single · EV 82 mph · LA +4° · 78 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Antolín Matos — error · EV 69 mph · LA -21° · 66 ft Pramod Estrada — fielders_choice · EV 55 mph · LA -2° · 52 ft Raziel Jimenez — line_out · EV 61 mph · LA +22° · 106 ft Reuben Leininger — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 119 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Antolín Matos — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 191 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
78% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 4 SB · 0 CS (+1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mirko Moros 65 / -1° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Brayan Braun 82 / +4° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Jeyland Morales 82 / +41° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Yasniel Arboleda 85 / +42° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Dante O'Connor 64 / +10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Giants
22% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 2.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alafia Kelley 76 / +9° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Raziel Jimenez 61 / +22° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
Reuben Leininger 92 / +10° Oppo Single 0.8 → 1 +0.19
Antolín Matos 69 / -21° Center Reached on Error 0.1 → 0 -0.11
Pramod Estrada 55 / -2° Center Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
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