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Orcas 4, Brewers 3                                          2026-08-06 · #1290
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               3    3    5    0
Vancouver               4    4    1    1

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gentry      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-William ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Edwards     3b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Irving  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Yani        rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Mesidor pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kaplan      2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Kass        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Hernand ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Flores      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Struthe ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Trejo   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ebun        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Ishida  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Penicko ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ayers       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   5   1   0   0   3   6   8   0   1  0.179
  2B: Kaplan (12).
  GIDP: Flores (3), Irving (1), Struthers (1).
  a-Struck out for Gentry in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Edwards in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Yani in the 6th.
  d-Grounded out for Kass in the 7th.
  e-Grounded out for Saravia in the 7th.
  f-Walked for Sakurai in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Trejo in the 7th.
  h-Walked for Struthers in the 9th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Valdivia    rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Noonan      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Edmonso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mendez      2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Beigel      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Godín       3b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Quintero    lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Martínez    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Badger  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Teeguar pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Millar  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Roker       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Totals                  15   4   1   0   0   0   4   5   8   0   1  0.067
  E: Roker (6).
  HBP: Mendez (5), Godín (3).
  GIDP: Turrentine (4).
  a-Ran for Noonan in the 2nd.
  b-Walked for Martínez in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Badger in the 6th.
  d-Struck out in the 6th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (L, 18-4) ......    22   17  63%    1    4    4    5    8    0   83    -

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Martínez (W, 6-3) ...    28   22  81%    5    3    1    4    6    0   88    -
Bolaños .............     6    5  19%    0    0    0    2    2    0   19  2-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Sakurai (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kaplan (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Edwards (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kass (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Yani (Outs 1-17)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Martínez (Outs 1-22) → Bolaños (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Beigel (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Godín (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Valdivia (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 7:15 PM PT. Weather: 79°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 259355.
  Powerplays: Orcas — Badger NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.44
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Steven Kaplan Daniel Edwards (2B) 1–0 —
T 18 Percy Nava Steven Kaplan (3B) 2–0 —
T 20 German Hernandez Stan Mesidor (3B) 3–0 —
B 2 Herb Noonan Norris Mendez (3B) 3–1 0.36
B 2 Moisés Valdivia Omar Godín (2B) 3–2 0.24
B 11 Coen Turrentine Andrea Peavy (3B) 3–3 0.19
B 17 Ivan Teeguarden Alexis Edmonson (3B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.44
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Brewers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Daniel Edwards — single · EV 81 mph · LA -4° · 77 ft Graydon Yani — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -5° · 65 ft Steven Kaplan — double · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Thierry Kass — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 208 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -11° · 75 ft Takuto Sakurai — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Frank Ebun — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -8° · 50 ft Clifford Irving — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +25° · 203 ft Donni Eggleston — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +38° · 289 ft Kyron Struthers — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA +3° · 60 ft German Hernandez — fly_out · EV 54 mph · LA +44° · 118 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 197 ft Takuto Sakurai — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +21° · 175 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Rodolfo Flores — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA +3° · 53 ft Steven Kaplan — error · EV 68 mph · LA -8° · 65 ft Frank Ebun — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Percy Nava — infield_single · EV 64 mph · LA +6° · 60 ft Clifford Irving — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Frank Ebun — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +37° · 289 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Moisés Valdivia — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Sandy Martínez — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 275 ft Alexis Edmonson — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +35° · 256 ft Coen Turrentine — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -10° · 56 ft Ivan Teeguarden — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Moisés Valdivia — line_out · EV 53 mph · LA +24° · 83 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
63% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.5 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Percy Nava 64 / +6° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Graydon Yani 68 / -5° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Steven Kaplan 92 / +45° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Daniel Edwards 81 / -4° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Takuto Sakurai 81 / +21° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Orcas
37% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 2.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ivan Teeguarden 76 / +3° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Sandy Martínez 92 / +27° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Moisés Valdivia 77 / +13° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Alexis Edmonson 83 / +35° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Moisés Valdivia 53 / +24° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
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