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Reds 7, Cubs 6                                              2026-08-06 · #1291
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 6    6    9    0
Cincinnati              7    7    7    1

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Palermo pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Onyiuke     1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Solis       ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Heinze      lf ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Casey       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
O'Flaherty  c  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Kurth       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Santana ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Wimer       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Lamas   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-May     ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   6   9   3   0   1   6   3   8   0   0  0.300
  2B: Segovia (8), Heinze (12), O'Flaherty (11).
  HR: May (2), off Logroño.
  SB: O'Flaherty (9), Palermo (6).
  CS: May (9).
  a-Ran for Segovia in the 6th.
  b-Ran for O'Flaherty in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Kurth in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Wimer in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Lamas in the 6th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Corozo  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Roy         3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Pittman pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dilworth    1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
Suarez      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Villalo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Cox     pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-David   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Acosta      cf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Logroño     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Morejón pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Subhash pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Patrick     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  25   7   7   3   0   0   7   8   6   0   0  0.280
  2B: Núñez (6), Tsoubanos (15), Acosta (4).
  SB: Pittman 2 (10), Acosta (5).
  E: Núñez (6).
  GIDP: Núñez (2), Morejón 2 (3).
  Squeeze: Suarez.
  a-Batted for Núñez in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Tsoubanos in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out for Suarez in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Ribera in the 4th.
  e-Singled for Murakami in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Logroño in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for David in the 4th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wimer (L, 2-17) .....    16   11  41%    6    4    4    3    3    0   45    -
Boatright ...........    16   14  52%    1    3    3    5    3    0   53  2-1

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Logroño (W, 2-2) ....    23   18  67%    7    6    6    2    4    1   91    -
Kirks ...............     9    9  33%    1    0    0    1    4    0   35  1-0

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-11) → Boatright (Outs 12-25)
CATCHER (C)       | O'Flaherty (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Onyiuke (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Casey (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Heinze (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kurth (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-25)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Logroño (Outs 1-18) → Kirks (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 87°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 362081.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O13)
  Walk-Back runs: off Logroño 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.24
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.17
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 4 Kristian O'Flaherty Eddie Solis (2B) 1–0 —
T 6 Brad Wimer Kristian O'Flaherty (3B) 2–0 —
T 16 Erick May Maurice Hollowell (2B) 3–0 —
T 16 Erick May Erick May (HR) 4–0 —
T 16 Teófilo Segovia Erick May (3B) 5–0 —
T 18 Tomas Heinze Harold Palermo (3B) 6–0 —
B 10 Felix Ribera Johnny Acosta (2B) 6–1 1.06
B 11 Orlando Núñez Zachary Subhash (3B) 6–2 0.94
B 11 Orlando Núñez Agustin Cox (1B) 6–3 0.75
B 11 Ed Tsoubanos Orlando Núñez (2B) 6–4 0.56
B 15 Marco Corozo Ed Tsoubanos (3B) 6–5 0.50
B 20 Dariel Morejón Shelby Warwick (3B) 6–6 0.43
B 24 Marco Corozo Lyle Pittman (3B) 6–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.24
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.17
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Cubs — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 96 mph · LA +18° · 213 ft Omni Onyiuke — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 117 mph · LA +4° · 111 ft Tomas Heinze — single · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Douglas Casey — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +31° · 336 ft Kristian O'Flaherty — double · EV 95 mph · LA +28° · 300 ft Brad Wimer — error · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 103 ft Jaume Santana — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Erick May — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +35° · 480 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -5° · 76 ft Omni Onyiuke — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -16° · 79 ft Teófilo Segovia — double · EV 115 mph · LA +13° · 232 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 224 ft Tomas Heinze — double · EV 98 mph · LA +40° · 375 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -2° · 92 ft Omni Onyiuke — single · EV 85 mph · LA -21° · 81 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Adam Roy — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -6° · 74 ft Blaise Dilworth — single · EV 84 mph · LA -20° · 80 ft Orlando Núñez — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA +15° · 153 ft Johnny Acosta — double · EV 98 mph · LA +12° · 155 ft Dariel Morejón — double_play · EV 74 mph · LA -26° · 71 ft Bret David — single · EV 73 mph · LA -17° · 69 ft Shelby Warwick — single · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 292 ft Marco Corozo — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 89 ft Devron Villalobos — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 181 ft Lyle Pittman — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 330 ft Orlando Núñez — double · EV 110 mph · LA +18° · 290 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 108 mph · LA +25° · 361 ft Blaise Dilworth — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Dariel Morejón — double_play · EV 74 mph · LA -20° · 70 ft Marco Corozo — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -25° · 64 ft Adam Roy — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -18° · 75 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
39% deserve-to-win  ·  8.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -2.4 vs expected
contact: 15.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Eddie Solis 100 / +17° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Kristian O'Flaherty 95 / +28° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Douglas Casey 97 / +31° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Omni Onyiuke 85 / -21° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Tomas Heinze 88 / +2° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Reds
61% deserve-to-win  ·  10.5 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -3.5 vs expected
contact: 11.1 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-1.1 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Johnny Acosta 98 / +12° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Bret David 73 / -17° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Blaise Dilworth 84 / -20° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Orlando Núñez 87 / +15° Pull Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Blaise Dilworth 76 / +16° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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