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Braves 7, Red Sox 6                                         2026-08-07 · #1297
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Atlanta                 7    7    8    1
Boston                  6    6    1    0

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Spencer     ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Alvelo      2b ......    2   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Almeida pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lamar       lf ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  b-Martín  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kalogeropou rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Powlus  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Bray        1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Ramon-E pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sherman     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Allison     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Homans      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Chu     pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Pfister ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ortiz       j  ......    1   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
María       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  20   7   8   3   2   0   7   5   2   0   0  0.400
  2B: Spencer (18), Lamar 2 (24).
  3B: Alvelo (1), Ortiz (3).
  SB: Spencer (8), Kalogeropoulos (8).
  E: Weah (5).
  a-Ran for Alvelo in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Lamar in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Kalogeropoulos in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Bray in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Homans in the 8th.
  f-Walked in the 6th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Venegas     3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Núñez       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Harrell     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Hodges  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
Falby       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Castillo    p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Pope    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Pezzell ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Tatum   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  25   6   1   1   0   0   3   8  15   0   0  0.040
  2B: Pfister (7).
  SB: Pope (6).
  HBP: Hodges (2).
  GIDP: Pfister (8).
  a-Ran for Nytes in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Castillo in the 3rd.
  c-Grounded out in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 4th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Homans (W, 9-5) .....    22   17   84  3.8    0    3    1    5   10    0    -
Parkes ..............     5    1   11  2.2    1    3    3    2    1    0  2-2
Mickens .............     7    9   25  3.6    0    0    0    1    4    0  3-0

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Castillo (L, 3-5) ...    20   15   59  3.0    7    4    4    2    3    0    -
Martín ..............     4    2    9  2.2    1    2    2    2    0    0  1-0
Lateef ..............     2    1    6  3.0    0    1    1    1    0    0  1-1

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Homans (Outs 1-17) → Parkes (Outs 18-18) → Mickens (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bray (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lamar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Allison (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-18)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-15) → Martín (Outs 16-17) → Lateef (Outs 18-18)
CATCHER (C)       | Núñez (Outs 1-18)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-18)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-18)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Venegas (Outs 1-18)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-18)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-18)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-18)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-18)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Braves batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 627639.
  Powerplays: Braves — Pfister NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.25
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 14 Ivo Malard Ferdi Pope (3B) 0–1 —
B 15 Ferdi Pope Jacob Hodges (3B) 0–2 —
B 16 Kervin Venegas Ivo Malard (3B) 0–3 —
B 17 Pancho Pfister Aleksandar Tatum (3B) 0–4 —
B 17 Pancho Pfister Henri Merrill (2B) 0–5 —
B 18 Jacob Hodges Bernard Strachan (3B) 0–6 —
T 3 Hugo Bray Zack Spencer (3B) 1–6 0.75
T 7 Dennis Lamar Todd Chu (1B) 2–6 0.75
T 15 Mirko Alvelo Todd Chu (3B) 3–6 1.00
T 15 Mirko Alvelo Joseph Martín (2B) 4–6 0.75
T 15 Edgar Ortiz Wilson Almeida (3B) 5–6 0.50
T 16 Jefferson Di María Edgar Ortiz (3B) 6–6 0.27
T 17 Sean Ramon-Edwards Cormani Weah (2B) 7–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.25
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Braves — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +39° · 359 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — single · EV 73 mph · LA +16° · 112 ft Zack Spencer — double · EV 78 mph · LA +36° · 231 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -7° · 74 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Ned Homans — single · EV 102 mph · LA +4° · 97 ft Mirko Alvelo — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -9° · 81 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 100 ft Edgar Ortiz — triple · EV 105 mph · LA +19° · 273 ft Jefferson Di María — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +32° · 421 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +3° · 79 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 80 mph · LA +45° · 253 ft Zack Spencer — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +41° · 250 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -28° · 78 ft Cameron Allison — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +27° · 96 ft Mirko Alvelo — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 140 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 105 mph · LA +18° · 264 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 0 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Kervin Venegas — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA -10° · 79 ft Walter Núñez — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -10° · 78 ft Jide Falby — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 211 ft Teófilo Pezzella — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Pancho Pfister — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA -11° · 64 ft Ivo Malard — error · EV 65 mph · LA -1° · 62 ft Jide Falby — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 104 ft Pancho Pfister — double · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 248 ft Ferdi Pope — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA -12° · 69 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
85% deserve-to-win  ·  10.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -3.1 vs expected
contact: 13.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jefferson Di María 108 / +32° Pull Out 3.4 → 0 -3.38
Zack Spencer 78 / +36° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.93
Mirko Alvelo 100 / +10° Pull Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.91
Dennis Lamar 80 / +45° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.86
Dennis Lamar 96 / +39° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.47
Red Sox
15% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 3.3 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pancho Pfister 92 / +24° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Jide Falby 79 / +12° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Jide Falby 76 / +9° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Kervin Venegas 83 / -10° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Walter Núñez 82 / -10° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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