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Brewers 8, Astros 7                                         2026-08-08 · #1309
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 7    7    5    0
Milwaukee               8    8    6    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Morales     1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Thom    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Braun       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Moros       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Gómez       3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Humphreys   rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tassew      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rivas   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hammerbeck  p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  c-Neely   pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Takada  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Herrera ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  28   7   5   0   1   0   6   5  10   0   1  0.179
  3B: Kingsbury (2).
  HBP: O'Connor (3).
  GIDP: Braun (7).
  a-Ran for Morales in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Tassew in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Hammerbeck in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 4th.
  e-Batted in the 4th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Williams    2b ......    2   1   2   1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mesidor     c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Gentry      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Kaplan  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Edwards     3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Yani        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Penicko ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Flores      1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Saravia     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Cortizo     p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
  d-Kass    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Irving  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Johnsto pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Eggleston   j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ayers       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   8   6   2   0   2   8   5   7   0   1  0.250
  2B: Williams (29), Nava (10).
  HR: Williams (10), off Hammerbeck; Cortizo (4), off Hammerbeck.
  a-Ran for Williams in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Gentry in the 7th.
  c-Struck out for Yani in the 7th.
  d-Struck out in the 7th.
  e-Grounded out for Nava in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hammerbeck (L, 1-5) .    20   17  63%    4    4    4    2    4    2   64    -
Vildoza .............     6    3  11%    2    2    2    1    2    0   27  1-1
Ayala ...............     3    2   7%    0    2    2    2    1    0   18  2-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cortizo (W, 12-3) ...    21   13  48%    4    7    7    5    4    0   74    -
Davison .............    13   14  52%    1    0    0    0    6    0   64  2-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-22)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hammerbeck (Outs 1-17) → Vildoza (Outs 18-20) → Ayala (Outs 21-22)
CATCHER (C)       | Moros (Outs 1-22)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-22)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-22)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-22)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-22)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-22)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-22)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-22)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cortizo (Outs 1-13) → Davison (Outs 14-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Williams (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sakurai (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 584462.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.80
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Marcos Kingsbury Dante O'Connor (1B) 1–0 —
T 2 Mirko Moros Marcos Kingsbury (3B) 2–0 —
T 10 Jeyland Morales Van Neely (3B) 3–0 —
T 10 Maxi Valencia Masamichi Takada (3B) 4–0 —
T 11 Dante O'Connor Brayan Braun (3B) 5–0 —
T 11 Van Neely Iapani Thom (3B) 6–0 —
T 12 Korey Humphreys Dante O'Connor (2B) 7–0 —
B 1 Jesse Williams Jesse Williams (HR) 7–1 0.81
B 9 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (HR) 7–2 1.00
B 17 Percy Nava Toshihiro Ishida (2B) 7–3 1.50
B 17 Percy Nava Stan Mesidor (1B) 7–4 1.20
B 18 Noel Gentry Percy Nava (2B) 7–5 1.00
B 20 Rodolfo Flores Steven Kaplan (2B) 7–6 0.86
B 21 Takuto Sakurai Donni Eggleston (3B) 7–7 0.50
B 21 Oscar Cortizo Raul Johnston (3B) 7–8 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.80
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Astros — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Marcos Kingsbury — triple · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 278 ft Brayan Braun — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -10° · 54 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -8° · 59 ft Korey Humphreys — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 204 ft Scoville Rivas — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 130 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 160 ft Van Neely — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 55 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +52° · 337 ft Brayan Braun — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +32° · 98 ft Bernie Herrera — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -19° · 52 ft Van Neely — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +38° · 105 ft Masamichi Takada — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +46° · 231 ft Korey Humphreys — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Scoville Rivas — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Brayan Braun — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
344' 415' 304' Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +43° · 309 ft Jesse Williams — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA +3° · 109 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -16° · 91 ft Takuto Sakurai — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA +9° · 154 ft Oscar Cortizo — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 298 ft Daniel Edwards — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 309 ft Percy Nava — double · EV 117 mph · LA +25° · 415 ft Oscar Cortizo — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 119 mph · LA +21° · 383 ft Stan Mesidor — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +11° · 210 ft Noel Gentry — single · EV 113 mph · LA -2° · 107 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 444 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
11% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.5 vs expected
contact: 6.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Kingsbury 96 / +25° Pull Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.93
Mirko Moros 55 / +10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Mayer Gómez 76 / +17° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Scoville Rivas 93 / +52° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Scoville Rivas 80 / +15° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Brewers
89% deserve-to-win  ·  12.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -4.7 vs expected
contact: 23.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-9.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rodolfo Flores 119 / +26° Center Single 2.9 → 1 -1.93
Daniel Edwards 119 / +16° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Takuto Sakurai 114 / +9° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Stan Mesidor 119 / +11° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Jesse Williams 100 / +44° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
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