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Astros 14, Brewers 4                                        2026-08-09 · #1319
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                14   14    7    0
Milwaukee               4    4    8    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Braun   pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Kingsbury   lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Moros       3b ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Thom        c  ......    4   5   3   0   0   2   4   0   1   0   0  0.750
Gómez       1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Humphreys   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Morales ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tassew      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Rivas   ph ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Basham      p  ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Takada  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33  14   7   1   0   4  14   3  14   0   0  0.212
  2B: Braun (15).
  HR: Moros (2), off Méndez-Valdez; Thom 2 (6), off Méndez-Valdez, August; Rivas (5), off Méndez-Valdez.
  HBP: Moros (3).
  a-Ran for O'Connor in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Humphreys in the 4th.
  c-Batted for Tassew in the 4th.
  d-Struck out in the 8th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Flores      1b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Penickova   2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Williams    rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Gentry      lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Edwards     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Kaplan      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Méndez-Vald p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   4   8   1   0   0   4   1  10   0   0  0.276
  2B: Gentry (10).
  HBP: Gentry (8), Edwards (4), Kaplan (2).
  GIDP: Flores (4), Williams (5), Kaplan (2).
  a-Singled in the 5th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Basham ..............    11    8  30%    4    1    1    0    5    0   51    -
Fenty (W, 1-1) ......    13   11  41%    3    2    2    1    1    0   54  2-2
Romero (F, 12) ......     8    8  30%    1    1    1    0    4    0   28  3-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Méndez-Valdez .......    19   15  56%    3    6    3    1    8    3   82    -
August (L, 0-1) .....    14    9  33%    3    5    4    2    5    1   46  1-1
Hamdy ...............     4    3  11%    1    3    3    0    1    0   12  2-2

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Basham (Outs 1-8) → Fenty (Outs 9-19) → Romero (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Méndez-Valdez (Outs 1-15) → August (Outs 16-24) → Hamdy (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sakurai (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Penickova (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Williams (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 1:00 PM CT. Weather: 95°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 31052.
  Walk-Back runs: off Méndez-Valdez 3, off August 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.67    Peak faced 8.25
    27 outs left: 1.67
    18 outs left: 2.17
     9 outs left: 4.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 3 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 1–0 —
T 5 Korey Humphreys Iapani Thom (3B) 2–0 —
T 9 Scoville Rivas Scoville Rivas (HR) 3–0 —
T 11 Mayer Gómez Scoville Rivas (3B) 4–0 —
T 13 Mirko Moros Mirko Moros (HR) 5–0 —
T 14 Jerome Basham Mirko Moros (3B) 6–0 —
T 17 Van Neely Brayan Braun (3B) 7–0 —
T 18 Iapani Thom Van Neely (1B) 8–0 —
T 18 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 9–0 —
T 21 Scoville Rivas Iapani Thom (3B) 10–0 —
T 24 Iapani Thom Van Neely (2B) 11–0 —
T 25 Brayan Braun Mayer Gómez (3B) 12–0 —
T 25 Brayan Braun Iapani Thom (2B) 13–0 —
T 25 Brayan Braun Mirko Moros (1B) 14–0 —
B 8 Noel Gentry Maximo Méndez-Valdez (2B) 14–1 2.21
B 8 Daniel Edwards Jesse Williams (3B) 14–2 2.05
B 15 Takuto Sakurai Noel Gentry (3B) 14–3 3.00
B 19 Noel Gentry Clifford Irving (3B) 14–4 4.12
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.67
Peak faced 8.25
27 outs left 1.67
18 outs left 2.17
9 outs left 4.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Astros — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 4 HR
344' 415' 304' Iapani Thom — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Korey Humphreys — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +32° · 265 ft Jerome Basham — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +0° · 70 ft Scoville Rivas — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +1° · 94 ft Mirko Moros — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Marcos Kingsbury — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -16° · 93 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 73 ft Brayan Braun — double · EV 111 mph · LA +10° · 170 ft Jerome Basham — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA -10° · 90 ft Van Neely — single · EV 83 mph · LA +19° · 172 ft Iapani Thom — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Mirko Moros — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 251 ft Van Neely — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 103 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 98 mph · LA -1° · 93 ft Jerome Basham — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Raymond Penickova — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 236 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Sergio Saravia — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Maximo Méndez-Valdez — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -7° · 82 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 52 mph · LA +22° · 76 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Noel Gentry — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 168 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 157 ft Steven Kaplan — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Raymond Penickova — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 90 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Takuto Sakurai — single · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Sergio Saravia — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Rodolfo Flores — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Raymond Penickova — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Jesse Williams — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Noel Gentry — single · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
82% deserve-to-win  ·  10.3 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 22.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 20.0 (-2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scoville Rivas 100 / +19° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Van Neely 88 / +10° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Brayan Braun 111 / +10° Pull Double 1.5 → 2 +0.54
Jerome Basham 95 / -10° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Iapani Thom 98 / -1° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Brewers
18% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 7.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Noel Gentry 92 / +15° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Sergio Saravia 92 / +40° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Rodolfo Flores 76 / -17° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Noel Gentry 76 / -13° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Takuto Sakurai 92 / -1° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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