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Canaries 22, Orioles 6                                      2026-08-11 · #1340
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               6    6    7    2
New Jersey             22   22   15    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Foust       1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Ison        cf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kautz       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kagame      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Mills       ss ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Samudio     3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.250
Wayar       p  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
  a-Purchas ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   6   7   4   0   1   6   2  14   0   0  0.226
  2B: Ison (10), Mills 2 (8), Wayar (2).
  HR: Samudio (2), off Arnoux.
  SB: Foust (17).
  E: Foust (10), Ison (5).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Kerr        rf ......    5   2   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  0.400
Brickhandle 1b ......    4   4   3   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.750
Campos      c  ......    5   3   3   1   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Crader      p  ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Nachand pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Navarro     cf ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Pastore pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    4   5   2   1   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.500
Barron      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Rushing ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  39  22  15   2   0   4  22   4   9   1   1  0.385
  2B: Campos (9), Hollenbeck (12).
  HR: Brickhandler (19), off Wayar; Hollenbeck (2), off Barella; Nachand (1), off Kautz; Woodall (2), off Solo.
  CS: Pastore (3).
  HBP: Brickhandler (6), Nachand (3).
  a-Ran for Cordero in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 4th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wayar ...............     5    3  11%    2    3    2    0    2    1   23    -
Solo ................    11    7  26%    3    4    4    2    1    1   40    -
Barella (L, 1-3) ....     9    3  11%    4    7    5    1    1    1   27  1-1
Nealon ..............    13    9  33%    4    5    5    1    2    0   40  1-1
Kautz ...............     7    5  19%    2    3    3    0    3    1   24    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (W, 14-3) ....    12   12  44%    0    0    0    1    6    0   54    -
Tesfaye .............    13   10  37%    3    1    1    1    5    0   44    -
Arnoux (F, 96) ......     8    5  19%    4    5    4    0    3    1   20  2-2

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wayar (Outs 1-3) → Solo (Outs 4-10) → Barella (Outs 11-13) → Nealon (Outs 14-22) → Kautz (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foust (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ison (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kagame (Outs 1-27)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-12) → Tesfaye (Outs 13-22) → Arnoux (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Barron (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted first; Orioles batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 447075.
  Walk-Back runs: off Wayar 1, off Barella 2, off Arnoux 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.56    Peak faced 27.00
    27 outs left: 2.56
    18 outs left: 3.83
     9 outs left: 7.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Jam Brickhandler Andrea Kramer (1B) 0–1 —
B 1 Jam Brickhandler Jam Brickhandler (HR) 0–2 —
B 2 Vincent Crader Jam Brickhandler (3B) 0–3 —
B 9 Hugo Campos Tripp Hollenbeck (3B) 0–4 —
B 10 Jesse Woodall Vincent Crader (2B) 0–5 —
B 10 Jesse Woodall Hugo Campos (1B) 0–6 —
B 10 Jesse Woodall Jesse Woodall (HR) 0–7 —
B 10 Jam Brickhandler Jesse Woodall (3B) 0–8 —
B 11 Tripp Hollenbeck Jam Brickhandler (2B) 0–9 —
B 11 Tripp Hollenbeck Brandon Barron (1B) 0–10 —
B 11 Tripp Hollenbeck Tripp Hollenbeck (HR) 0–11 —
B 12 Ramón Navarro Tripp Hollenbeck (3B) 0–12 —
B 13 Hugo Campos Ramón Navarro (3B) 0–13 —
B 13 Hugo Campos Levar Nachand (2B) 0–14 —
B 14 Jerome Kerr Hugo Campos (2B) 0–15 —
B 15 Tripp Hollenbeck Jerome Kerr (1B) 0–16 —
B 18 Hugo Campos Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 0–17 —
B 18 Jam Brickhandler Ramón Navarro (3B) 0–18 —
B 18 Jerome Kerr Hugo Campos (2B) 0–19 —
B 24 Levar Nachand Jerome Kerr (3B) 0–20 —
B 24 Levar Nachand Jam Brickhandler (2B) 0–21 —
B 24 Levar Nachand Levar Nachand (HR) 0–22 —
T 15 Sidney Foust Dan Mills (2B) 1–22 5.50
T 22 Rónald Samudio Dan Mills (2B) 2–22 12.60
T 22 Rónald Samudio Dyllan Ison (1B) 3–22 12.00
T 22 Rónald Samudio Rónald Samudio (HR) 4–22 11.40
T 22 Emilio Wayar Rónald Samudio (3B) 5–22 10.80
T 25 Dan Mills Dyllan Ison (2B) 6–22 25.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.56
Peak faced 27.00
27 outs left 2.56
18 outs left 3.83
9 outs left 7.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Orioles — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -1° · 70 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Emilio Wayar — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 149 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 373 ft Sidney Foust — single · EV 93 mph · LA +1° · 88 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +20° · 332 ft Sidney Foust — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +31° · 309 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Rónald Samudio — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +42° · 467 ft Emilio Wayar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 227 ft Dyllan Ison — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 356 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 112 mph · LA -7° · 106 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 282 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
28 BIP· 9 1B · 2 XBH · 4 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 112 mph · LA +6° · 107 ft Jam Brickhandler — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 396 ft Vincent Crader — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 181 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -10° · 83 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 93 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -9° · 79 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +31° · 340 ft Jesse Woodall — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +32° · 443 ft Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -9° · 82 ft Vincent Crader — error · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 209 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 145 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 202 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +17° · 259 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +43° · 436 ft Brandon Barron — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +6° · 100 ft Levar Nachand — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +40° · 405 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 87 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft Vincent Crader — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -20° · 86 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 84 mph · LA +44° · 281 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +18° · 300 ft Jerome Kerr — error · EV 81 mph · LA -17° · 77 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 363 ft Vincent Crader — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 224 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 158 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 110 mph · LA +27° · 386 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 95 mph · LA +3° · 90 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA +6° · 109 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 176 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
13% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Korey Flowers 115 / +20° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Dan Mills 88 / +34° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Emilio Wayar 100 / +11° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Emilio Wayar 100 / +17° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Sidney Foust 94 / +31° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Canaries
87% deserve-to-win  ·  16.7 expected runs
actual 22 runs  ·  +5.3 vs expected
contact: 30.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jesse Woodall 112 / +32° Center Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Jam Brickhandler 112 / +18° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Jerome Kerr 107 / +17° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.68
Jam Brickhandler 100 / +41° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Levar Nachand 101 / +40° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
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