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Orcas 6, Giants 5                                           2026-08-11 · #1344
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
San Francisco           5    5    6    0
Vancouver               6    6    6    1

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Matos       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kelley      ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Rosado  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cardozo     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Jimenez pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Reyes       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hoffken     3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Leininger   lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Marte       cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Figuero pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
McNeal      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Braxton ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Caniza      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Gallowa ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Arbeloa pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Mantía  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lacasse     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sundling    j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  28   5   6   0   0   0   5   7   5   0   0  0.214
  SB: Figueroa (11), Jimenez (7), Sundling (2).
  GIDP: Matos (3).
  a-Ran for Kelley in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Cardozo in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Marte in the 3rd.
  d-Walked for McNeal in the 5th.
  e-Batted for Lacasse in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.
  g-Batted for Rosado in the 7th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Edmonson    cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Alonso- pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Valdivia    ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Peavy       rf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Beigel      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Teeguar pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Noonan      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Mendez  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
McInerney   2b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Quintero    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Irvin   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Ávila       p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Whitley pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  13   6   6   1   0   0   5   2   4   0   1  0.462
  2B: Peavy (9).
  SB: Beigel (6).
  E: Irvin (4).
  HBP: Peavy (4).
  Squeeze: Irvin (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Edmonson in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Beigel in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out for Noonan in the 3rd.
  d-Pinch-hit for Quintero in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Ávila in the 2nd.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caniza (L, 7-5) .....    11    6  22%    5    4    4    1    2    0   31    -
Yamauchi ............     5    4  15%    1    2    2    1    2    0   21  1-1

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ávila (W, 0-1) ......    18   14  52%    3    1    1    3    1    0   43    -
Aupiu ...............    15   12  44%    3    3    3    3    3    0   53  3-0
Quevedo .............     2    1   4%    0    1    1    1    1    0    9  3-1

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-10)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Caniza (Outs 1-6) → Yamauchi (Outs 7-10)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-10)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Reyes (Outs 1-10)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cardozo (Outs 1-10)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-10)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-10)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Leininger (Outs 1-10)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-10)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-10)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ávila (Outs 1-14) → Aupiu (Outs 15-26) → Quevedo (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | McInerney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Valdivia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Beigel (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edmonson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Peavy (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Giants batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM PT. Weather: 72°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 294154.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.78
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 10 Jhonny Reyes Manolo Figueroa (3B) 1–0 —
T 20 Chase Sundling Brad Galloway (2B) 2–0 —
T 22 Reuben Leininger Chase Sundling (3B) 3–0 —
T 22 Manolo Figueroa Orien Hoffken (3B) 4–0 —
T 26 Leo Lacasse Reuben Leininger (3B) 5–0 —
B 5 Maikel Ávila Moisés Valdivia (3B) 5–1 0.68
B 5 Maikel Ávila Lipe McInerney (2B) 5–2 0.55
B 6 Andrea Peavy Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 5–3 0.43
B 6 Andrea Peavy Berkeley Whitley (2B) 5–4 0.29
B 8 Lipe McInerney Andrea Peavy (3B) 5–5 0.16
B 9 Stuart Irvin Ivan Teeguarden (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.78
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Giants — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Antolín Matos — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +15° · 90 ft Alafia Kelley — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -14° · 61 ft Maximo Cardozo — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -8° · 76 ft Jhonny Reyes — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 175 ft Orien Hoffken — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +7° · 51 ft José Marte — single · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Parker McNeal — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Rubilio Caniza — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 129 ft Hervé Capdevila — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 297 ft Leo Lacasse — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 124 ft Brad Galloway — error · EV 92 mph · LA -3° · 87 ft Raziel Jimenez — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Chase Sundling — single · EV 77 mph · LA +19° · 147 ft Manolo Figueroa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 100 ft Maximo Cardozo — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Orien Hoffken — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 176 ft Reuben Leininger — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Brad Galloway — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +29° · 229 ft Hervé Capdevila — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 119 ft Reuben Leininger — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Antolín Matos — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -8° · 53 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Louis Badger — single · EV 82 mph · LA +4° · 78 ft Amarien Beigel — single · EV 65 mph · LA -11° · 62 ft Moisés Valdivia — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Lipe McInerney — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 84 ft Maikel Ávila — single · EV 73 mph · LA +17° · 118 ft Andrea Peavy — double · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 158 ft Louis Badger — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Lipe McInerney — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 123 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
88% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 8.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jhonny Reyes 92 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Leo Lacasse 92 / +11° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
José Marte 76 / -9° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Maximo Cardozo 76 / -17° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Hervé Capdevila 92 / +31° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Orcas
12% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+3.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrea Peavy 88 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Amarien Beigel 65 / -11° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Louis Badger 82 / +4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Lipe McInerney 76 / +11° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Maikel Ávila 73 / +17° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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