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Braves 14, Dodgers 7                                        2026-08-11 · #1345
at The Citadel
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Los Angeles             7      0    7    9    0
Atlanta                14      0   14    8    0

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Guarnera    cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gilbert pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Martin      lf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Maier       c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Lepchen pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0.500
Eggleston   3b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Gerardy     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Glatch  pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ochoa       ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Murray      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Richard 2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Swanson     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tiernan     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Boyajya ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  f-Garcés  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Abbott      j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kromah      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   7   9   2   0   0   6   4  11   1   0  0.281
  2B: Maier (4), Eggleston (13).
  SB: Glatch (2).
  HBP: Murray (1).
  GIDP: Garcés (3).
  a-Ran for Guarnera in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Maier in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Gerardy in the 7th.
  d-Replaced Murray at 2B in the 8th.
  e-Batted for Gilbert in the 4th.
  f-Batted in the 5th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvelo      2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.667
Kalogeropou lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Spencer     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Martín  pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lamar       ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Ramon-E pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Bray        rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Powlus      1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Chu     pr ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.500
Sherman     cf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Parkes      p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   1  0.000
  d-Nightin ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28  14   8   4   0   1  14  13  11   0   1  0.286
  2B: Alvelo (20), Kalogeropoulos (21), Lamar (25), Chu (37).
  HR: Weah (3), off Villarreal.
  SB: Alvelo 2 (13), Kalogeropoulos (9).
  CS: Alvelo (16), Bray (8).
  a-Ran for Spencer in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Lamar in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Powlus in the 3rd.
  d-Walked in the 7th.

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tiernan .............    12    9  33%    2    2    2    3    4    0   40    -
Villarreal (L, 3-1) .    11    7  26%    3    7    7    5    2    1   34  1-0
Fitzgibbon ..........    17   11  41%    3    5    5    5    5    0   70  1-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parkes ..............     9    7  26%    3    1    1    0    5    0   36    -
Buford (W, 6-1) .....    13   10  37%    1    2    2    2    4    0   39  1-0
Morejón .............    10    6  22%    5    4    4    2    0    0   35  2-2
Rodriguez (F, 18) ...     5    4  15%    0    0    0    0    2    0   16  1-0

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tiernan (Outs 1-9) → Villarreal (Outs 10-16) → Fitzgibbon (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maier (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murray (Outs 1-21) → Richards (Outs 22-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guarnera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Parkes (Outs 1-7) → Buford (Outs 8-17) → Morejón (Outs 18-23) → Rodriguez (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Lamar (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Dodgers batted second.
  Seconds: LAD o26 (7-14), ATL o26 (14-0).
  First pitch 6:40 PM CT. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 423612.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.67    Peak faced 24.00
    27 outs left: 1.67
    18 outs left: 2.00
     9 outs left: 3.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 8 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 0–1 —
B 8 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Todd Chu (2B) 0–2 —
B 12 Todd Chu Joseph Martín (2B) 0–3 —
B 13 Mirko Alvelo Todd Chu (3B) 0–4 —
B 13 Mirko Alvelo Mac Sherman (2B) 0–5 —
B 15 Cormani Weah Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (3B) 0–6 —
B 15 Cormani Weah Joseph Martín (2B) 0–7 —
B 15 Cormani Weah Hugo Bray (1B) 0–8 —
B 15 Cormani Weah Cormani Weah (HR) 0–9 —
B 19 Mirko Alvelo Todd Chu (2B) 0–10 —
B 22 Akili Sauerbrunn Mirko Alvelo (3B) 0–11 —
B 22 Akili Sauerbrunn Donny Nightingale (2B) 0–12 —
B 25 Mac Sherman Akili Sauerbrunn (3B) 0–13 —
B 26 Akili Sauerbrunn Josh Parkes (3B) 0–14 —
T 1 Lenny Eggleston Thomas Martin (3B) 1–14 1.62
T 8 Tanner Gerardy Dean Gilbert (3B) 2–14 2.05
T 8 Bautista Ochoa Andy Lepchenko (3B) 3–14 1.89
T 16 Hubertus Murray Lawson Glatch (3B) 4–14 3.00
T 19 Thomas Martin Bautista Ochoa (3B) 5–14 3.75
T 21 Berkeley Abbott Suntarine Richards (3B) 6–14 4.50
T 22 Lenny Eggleston Andy Lepchenko (2B) 7–14 4.80
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.67
Peak faced 24.00
27 outs left 1.67
18 outs left 2.00
9 outs left 3.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Dodgers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Thomas Martin — single · EV 97 mph · LA +18° · 217 ft Quentin Maier — double · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 242 ft Bautista Ochoa — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +6° · 78 ft Wyatt Guarnera — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Jaylen Tiernan — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +40° · 265 ft Tony Garcés — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 216 ft Lawson Glatch — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 153 ft Berkeley Abbott — single · EV 97 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft Tomm Kromah — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA -7° · 87 ft Lenny Eggleston — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Bautista Ochoa — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Colton Swanson — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 145 ft Jaylen Tiernan — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 173 ft Tony Garcés — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -2° · 60 ft Andy Lepchenko — single · EV 77 mph · LA -14° · 73 ft Andy Lepchenko — single · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Colton Swanson — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Hubertus Murray — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 229 ft Thomas Martin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 90 ft Lenny Eggleston — double · EV 103 mph · LA +24° · 320 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
368' 355' 345' Zack Spencer — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 188 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 386 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 376 ft Todd Chu — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 184 ft Cormani Weah — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — double · EV 99 mph · LA +20° · 249 ft Hugo Bray — fly_out · EV 105 mph · LA +30° · 383 ft Mirko Alvelo — double · EV 108 mph · LA +17° · 256 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 88 mph · LA +41° · 307 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Josh Parkes — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +17° · 113 ft Mac Sherman — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +27° · 176 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 83 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Dodgers
23% deserve-to-win  ·  8.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 11.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tony Garcés 98 / +17° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Quentin Maier 94 / +22° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Colton Swanson 92 / +25° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Jaylen Tiernan 82 / +40° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Lenny Eggleston 103 / +24° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Braves
77% deserve-to-win  ·  14.8 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 17.8 est bases + 12 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hugo Bray 105 / +30° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Akili Sauerbrunn 100 / +34° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Zack Spencer 100 / +14° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Kreigh Kalogeropoulos 99 / +20° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Todd Chu 100 / +14° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
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